...MONITORING TWO STORM INVESTIGATIONS AND THE CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT...

 

A STRONG WAVE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SEEMS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW 0% CHANCE WITHIN 48 HRS AND LOW 20% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  SO FAR NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING STRONG DEVELOPMENT BUT I WILL MONITOR THEM.  

THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND MAYBE BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA.  THIS COULD BLOCK ANY WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SYSTEM IF THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. 

AS FOR THE STORM INVEST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST BASICALLY THE SAME THING AS ABOVE SYSTEM, LOW 0-20%.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY!

AS WE NOW GO DOWN HILL FROM THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON MY FOCUS IS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO. YOU CAN'T RULE OUT HOME GROWN SYSTEMS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122332
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more 
concentrated associated with a tropical wave located midway between 
the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. Some additional 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the 
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands by the 
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located less than a couple hundred miles southeast 
of the easternmost Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear only marginally favorable, and any development of this wave 
should be slow to occur while it moves westward or 
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic through the 
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin