...FIONA HAS PRODUCED ENOUGH ACE (ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY) TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER STORMS...

 AS FIONA CONTINUES NORTHWARD SHE LEAVES BEHIND ENOUGH ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) FOR OTHER STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF  THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO TELLING WHERE THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL END UP SO ANYONE THAT LIVES IN THE CARIBBEAN, GULF COAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

NOTE THE MODELS BELOW WILL GIVE YOU AN IDEA HOW UNCERTAIN THE FORECAST IS AND WE SHOULD NOT BEGIN TO MAKE ASSUMPTIONS WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS GOING.  JUST BE STORM READY AND BE READY TO ACTIVATE YOUR HURRICANE PLAN OF ACTION IF THIS STORM TRACKS YOUR WAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STORM INVEST WITH HIGHER FORMATION CHANCE BUT I AM NOT GOING TO POST IMAGES ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT WILL STAY OUT AT SEA.

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better 
organized in association with an area of low pressure located over 
the central subtropical Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of 
the westernmost Azores.   Environmental conditions appear marginally 
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form within the next day or so before upper-level winds 
become less conducive later this week.  The system should move 
generally northward or northeastward while remaining over the open 
waters of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph.  Gradual 
development of this system is forecast during the next several days 
as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical 
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system 
moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

00Z 09-20-2022 ECMWF(EURO) MODEL RUN

PLEASE DO NOT MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THESE ARE THE TRACKS THIS STORM WILL TAKE!

00Z 09-20-2022 GFS (AMERICAN) MODEL RUN

06Z 09-20-2022 GFS (AMERICAN) MODEL RUN

NOTE THE DIFFERNCE BETWEEN THIS RUN AND THE ONES ABOVE.  MONITOR DO NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS AND STAY TUNED THE NHC UPDATES.

00Z 09-20-2022 ECENS (EURO) MODEL ENSEMBLE

00Z 09-20-2022 GEFS (GFS) MODEL ENSEMBLE