...MONITORING 98L WHICH NOW HAS A HIGH 70-90% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 48HRS AND 5-DAYS...

 

INVEST 98L DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.  IN FACT THERE WAS MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY.  HOWEVER, NHC SAYS THIS HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS HAVE A WIDE SPREAD, AND THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO WE DON'T HAVE A ACTUAL CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  UNTIL THEN WE JUST MONITOR AND BE READY IN CASE THIS SYSTEM TRACKS YOUR WAY.  THE CARIBBEAN, GULF COAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR 98L.

RTW

358 
ABNT20 KNHC 202356
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on Tropical 
Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few 
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to 
show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical 
depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is 
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward 
Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean 
Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely 
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty 
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
at least gradual development of the system for a couple days 
thereafter while the system moves slowly northward between west 
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands through the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston are issued under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston are issued under 
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Jelsema