...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING...

 

IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A CATEGORY 3 OVER THE EASTERN GULF.  THE GOOD NEW IS THAT UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTH A BIT AS IT TRACKS EAST.  THESE WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL HELP TO WEAKEN IAN AND DROP THE INTENSITY LEVEL BELOW MAJOR STORM STATUS.  HOWEVER, A EARLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WOULD BRING POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITION TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST.  STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND NHC UPDATES. 

AS FOR THE TRACK THAT REMAINS A CRAP SHOOT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IAN WILL RESPOND TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE EURO WHICH WAS ON THE RIGHT (EAST) OF THE TRACK IS NOW SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS, CMC, NAVGEM MODELS.  THE ICON MODEL BEGS TO DIFFER AND TRACKS IAN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.  

ANY TURN TO THE RIGHT WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACT ON WEST COAST WHEN IT COMES TO STORM SURGE, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WIND DAMAGE.  

SO ALL I CAN SAY IS BE STORM READY FLORIDA!  HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT,  HURRICANE CENTER UPDATES AND OR LOCAL MEDIA.

RTW

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

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11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 19.1°N 82.7°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

 

06Z EURO NOW TO THE LEFT STRAIGHT NORTH WITH HESITATIONS IN THE TRACK

00Z CMC MODELS TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH

06Z GFS A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST SLOWS DOWN NEAR WEST OF TAMPA AND IS PULLED NORTH.

06Z ICON MODEL STILL CROSSING FLORIDA OVER TAMPA BAY AREA

BROWN COLORS IS DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS

GRAYS AND PINK COLORS COLDER CLOUD TOP STRONGER STORMS.