...EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SUGGESTING FLORIDA FOR THIS LOW'S TRACK... PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LEEWARD WINDY AND FLOODING RAINS...

 

BEEN MONITORING ENSEMBLES AND THEY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST  FLORIDA FOR THIS LOW TO PASS OVER.  WHAT WILL IT BE IS STILL HARD TO TELL.  EITHER A HYBRID SYSTEM SUBTROPICAL STORM OR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  

DRY AIR INTRUSION MAYBE OCCURRING AS WE SPEAK.

READ MORE BELOW!

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in 
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles east of Bermuda.  Additionally, the system appears to be 
acquiring some tropical characteristics as it separates from a 
nearby decaying frontal system. If these trends continue, a 
short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form tonight 
or on Sunday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward over the central Atlantic. The system is forecast to 
turn northward and northeastward and merge with a strong cold front 
by the middle of next week, and further development is not expected 
beyond that time. Additional information on this system, including 
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea 
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern 
Atlantic on Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected 
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or 
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the 
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the 
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an 
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy 
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the 
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to 
middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to bring 
locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this 
weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of 
this system.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart/Bucci