...STORM INVESTIGATION UPDATE 1257 PM...

 

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. SEEING DRY AIR OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THIS MIGHT HOLD BACK TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES.  USUALLY IN NOVEMBER WE SEE WEAKER STORMS SPECIALLY OVER THE AREA IT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER, WE CAN'T RULE OUT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.   READ MORE BELOW!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Lisa, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
forecast to move northward over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday 
where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of 
Hispaniola.  The system is initially expected to be very broad and 
disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or 
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression 
could form during the early to middle portion of next week while 
the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the 
southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, there is an 
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy 
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the 
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and 
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early 
to middle part of next week.  The disturbance is also expected to 
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands 
this weekend.    
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and a few thunderstorms located several hundred miles east 
of Bermuda are associated with a non-tropical area of low 
pressure.  The circulation of the low has become better defined 
since yesterday, and addition slow tropical or subtropical 
development of this disturbance is possible during the next two to 
three days.  After that time, the system is forecast to encounter 
stronger upper-level winds and further development is not 
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown