...STORM INVEST IN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NOW HAS A 30% CHANCE FOR FORMATION IN 5 DAYS...

 

GOOD MORNING!  I AM ALREADY SEEING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS PLENTY OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 

THIS IS PART OF A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, AS IT TRACKS WEST OR NORTHWEST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM.  

SINCE WE DON'T HAVE A DEVELOPED STORM SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW STRONG OR WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP.

HEAVY RAINS ARE SQUALLY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS THESE STORM TRACK NORTH.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Lisa, located over the Bay of Campeche.

East-Southeast of Bermuda:
A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an area of 
showers and thunderstorms, mostly well to the east of its center.  
Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should 
be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves little 
through today and then turns westward over the weekend. The system 
is forecast to interact with a larger low pressure area developing 
to its southwest and will encounter stronger upper level winds on 
Saturday, so further development is not anticipated beyond that 
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop 
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic 
during the next day or two. The system is initially expected be very 
broad and disorganized, but it could begin to acquire subtropical or 
tropical characteristics by the end of the weekend. Environmental 
conditions could support additional gradual development early next 
week and a subtropical or tropical depression could form while the 
disturbance moves generally northwestward or westward over the 
southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky