..NEW STORM INVEST ADDED AT O200 PM EDT.. ..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 24, 2023..

 

A westward tracking tropical wave near the western Cabo Verde Islands between 25-26 west degrees latitude.  This wave is passing through the African monsoonal trough and this is enhancing storms activity in this area.  I will be monitoring these waves as one of them may have a chance for development in the week to come as it tracks west to west-northwestward.

A tropical wave between 40-41 west degrees latitude has some scattered showers and storms along the southern axis of the wave as the wave moves through the moist environment of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ).  This wave is shown in the 12z surface map catching up with the 1012 mb low associated with storm investigation 95L and becoming part of the low.  

There is a small window for invest 95L to develop some before running into an unfavorable environment further west over the Central Caribbean.  The Lesser Antilles will see showers and storms in squalls moving as 95L passes over the Islands in a day or so.  The low is presently moving through mid level dry air.  

Wind shear is unfavorable to the north and south of the low, however, as it tracks east over the lower Windward Islands and north of Venezuela, the upper level winds are more favorable for development at this time. 

RTW

NEW STORM INVESTIGATION BELOW #2

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Don, located over the north-central Atlantic.

1. East of the Windward Islands (AL95):
A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands.  Although this system has not become any better organized 
since yesterday, some slow development remains possible during the 
next couple of days while it moves westward near 20 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible 
across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for 
development of this system by the middle of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Western Atlantic:
A weak trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south 
of Bermuda.  Environmental conditions are expected to become 
marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system as 
it moves towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and 
into the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch/Kelly

STORM INVEST 95L

NEW STORM INVESTIGATION 0200 PM EDT JULY 24, 2023

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Don is centered near 47.6N 40.7W at 
24/1500 UTC or 510 nm E of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ENE at 
17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 
near 12 ft. No deep convection remains with the system. The post-
tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 kt, 
and this general motion is expected to continue until 
dissipation tomorrow. Don should continue to gradually weaken, 
before dissipating tomorrow. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by Ocean Prediction Center at website 
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 
04N-20N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 07N-10N and 28W-35W.

A Atlantic tropical wave has been added in association with 
Invest 95L low pressure. The wave has its axis along 54W from 
05N-20N with a 1012 mb low centered at 11N53W, moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Winds fresh to strong from 12N-20N between 49W-58W 
with seas 8-10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 10N-17N between 51W-60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal near 16N17W to 09N33W to a weak 1012 mb low at 11N53W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 09N61W. Aside from convection 
associated to the tropical waves as described above, scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N-13N 
between 19W-27W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped along the N Gulf Coast from the 
upper Texas coast to Louisiana to the Florida panhandle coast. A 
pre-frontal trough extends from 29N91W east-northeastward to 
30N84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N-29N 
between 87W-91W. The diurnally-forced surface trough in the Bay 
of Campeche is associated with scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection south of 23N west of 94W. Away from the 
convection, winds across the basin are moderate or weaker with 
seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered near the 
Florida Peninsula will remain dominant the feature for the Gulf 
into late week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate 
winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will 
be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan 
Peninsula nightly. A stationary front just inland the northern 
Gulf coast will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms in 
adjacent waters for the next couple of days. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1010 mb 
Colombian Low is forcing strong to near gale trades in the S 
central Caribbean with moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas are 6-
10 ft in the S central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Aside 
from the convection associated with Invest 95L, scattered 
moderate convection is noted south of 11N west of 80W due to the 
eastern extent of eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough. An 
extensive Saharan Air Layer is noted over the western and 
central Caribbean, helping to suppress convection over the Great 
Antilles and the Yucatan.

For the forecast, winds should diminish slightly to fresh to 
strong tonight into Thu over the central Caribbean. Fresh to 
locally strong trades will occur over the Gulf of Honduras into 
tonight. Low pressure, Invest AL95, over the tropical N Atlantic 
is several hundred nm east of the Windward Islands. Some slow 
development of the low remains possible during the next couple 
of days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and 
eastern Caribbean Sea. Expect increasing winds and seas with the 
low. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Don in the north-central Atlantic.

An expansive ridge extends across the Atlantic from the 1033 mb 
Bermuda High near 33N45W. Aside from the winds/seas/convection 
associated with the Invest 95L disturbance, the trades are 
generally moderate to fresh 15N-30N east of 60W and weaker 
elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft east of 55W and 2-5 ft west of 55W. A 
weak surface trough extends from 22N67W to 28N63W with isolated 
moderate convection noted from 22N-29N between 59W-67W.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the 
area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will 
pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward 
Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be 
moderate or weaker over most of the area with moderate to 
locally fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands. 

$$
Landsea/Konarik