..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 26, 2023..

 

The National Hurricane center is monitoring a tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Island between 25-30 degrees west latitude.  This wave has a Low 0% chance for formation within 48 hours and low 30% chance for formation 7 days.  

GFS hits that this system will develop and turn northwest around the outer ridge of the Azores high missing the eastern sea board.  This is to far out in the future to say that this is what will happen.  We continue to watch and wait.

The Euro Model doesn't seem to have any interest in this wave it does not hint at development.  Will see if it gets onboard with GFS in the coming days.

Sea Surface temps are warn enough for development.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Conditions are expected to be 
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week and 
into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over 
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

EURO Model

GFS Model

A surface trough over Bahamas is interacting with an upper low South of Western Cuba and another upper level low east of the Bahamas. The counter clockwise rotation from the Southern Cuba upper low is producing enough upper level lift over the Bahamas to enhance showers and storms.  Some of the storms moved inland over Southeast Florida and the Florida straights this morning producing heavy, heavy rains, gusty winds and lightning.  This surface trough will proceed westward through Friday bringing more rains and storms.  Heavy rains, gusty winds and lightning will be possible over Southern Florida the next few days.  This could cause flooding in flood prone areas.

Metro Palm Beach County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade
County-Metropolitan Miami Dade-Coastal Palm Beach County-Coastal
Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach, Davie,
Carol City, Coral Springs, Royal Palm Ranger, Lake Worth, Hollywood,
Homestead, Delray Beach, Sandalfoot Cove, Mahogany Hammock, Boca
Raton, Kendale Lakes, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Deerfield Beach,
Greenacres City, West Palm Beach, Pompano Beach, Miami, Sawgrass
Mills Mal, Jupiter, Florida Gardens, Fort Lauderdale, Boynton Beach,
Miramar, Kendall, and Sunrise
136 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Florida, including the following
areas, Coastal Broward County, Coastal Miami Dade County, Coastal
Palm Beach County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland Miami-Dade
County, Metro Broward County, Metro Palm Beach County and
Metropolitan Miami Dade.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Extensive
street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- The rainfall from the showers and thunderstorms that have
been occurring over the eastern areas of South Florida the
last several days has lead to the grounds becoming saturated.
The short range models are also showing that additional 2 to
4 inches with localized higher amounts are possible through
Thursday evening with the showers and thunderstorms. Any
additional heavy rainfall amounts over these areas could
cause flooding concerns. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been
issued for the these areas through Thursday evening.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

3 day rainfall totals