..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 2, 2023..

 

As it is, there are plenty of fish storms in the Atlantic, but nothing significant to worry about. It's too early to tell where Invest 95L is heading and if it is going to develop. 12Z models are not too excited about the 95L in the 12Z model run. Long-range forecasts beyond 5 days are not accurate. So we monitor as we enter the busiest time of the season.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021732
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Idalia, located just to the east-southeast of Bermuda, on 
Tropical Storm Gert, located about 700 miles east-southeast of 
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Katia, located about 700 miles 
north-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle 
part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while 
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Another strong wave behind 95L over the west African continent.

There is a bend back to the west in the Euro 12z ensemble models.  Look at the black track line.