..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 4, 2023..

 

Storm Investigation 95L is looking healthy and will more than likely become a major storm as it tracks further to the west-northwest.

Most of the models agree that a weakness in the high pressure ridge east of Bermuda will be present. This will leave an opening for 95L to turn northwest and northward in due time. However, models that have tracked over or northeast of the Leeward Islands historically (Hebert Box) have affected the greater Antilles and the east coast of the U.S. It's still too early in the forecast to say this will occur, so we must remain vigilant.

The ICON model seems to be the outlier model, suggesting a track west-northwest closer to the northern coast of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

We watch, wait, and are storm-ready!

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041756
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Katia, located over the eastern subtropical 
Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Gert, 
located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure has formed 
from the tropical wave centered about 700 miles west-southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. The low-level circulation has become better 
defined since yesterday, with increasing organization in the shower 
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to 
become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in a day or two. 
Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. For 
additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move off 
the African coast in a couple of days. Environmental conditions 
should support some slow development, and a tropical depression 
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic around the latter 
part of the week or the weekend while the wave moves to the 
west-northwest at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles 
north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward 
towards warmer waters east of Azores. This system could acquire some 
subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this 
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal. 
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under 
WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Blake