..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 26, 2024 1155 AM EDT..

 

I have been reviewing the models this morning in reference to the storm investigation in the Atlantic, and the Ensemble models are still showing something, maybe tracking into the east Caribbean. However, it is still too soon to tell if anything will develop and make it into the Caribbean without having any difficulties with upper-level wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust.

The EURO, which showed low pressure or a storm moving over Puerto Rico, is no longer hinting at that. As in yesterday's tropic update, the forecast is subject to change, so I will monitor it, report accordingly, and post it here. 

As it is right now, we have not seen a full-fledged La Niña, so we remain in neutral conditions for now. 

Also, the sea surface temperatures have cooled in the tropical Atlantic to 26 Celsius between 25° west and 0° west and seem to be cooling westward as you watch the animation, which I am unable to post here. However, the image below shows the yellows, which range between 25 and 26 degrees Celsius. It's still too early for the Atlantic, though. August–September is climatologically the month where the Atlantic is the warmest and storms begin to form off the coast of Africa.

So I will continue to monitor, and I will report as updates come in from NHC and as I see something that catches my attention.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized shower activity while it moves quickly westward at 
around 25 mph.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive 
for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western 
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible 
during the next several days while it moves generally westward 
across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Pasch/Roberts