..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 9, 2024..

 

Good morning. The tropics remain quiet for now. Saharan dust and dry air are suppressing development at this time. According to the Climate Prediction Center, from July 10 through July 23, 2024, there should not be any tropical development in the Atlantic. I will see in a couple of days when the new Global Tropic Hazards Outlook map is published what it suggests will happen. 

RTW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091114
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 20W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 03N to 09N and between 31W and 40W. The northern 
portion of the wave is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that 
is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are found near the
northern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 12N37W to 08N59W. A few showers are noted near
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Depression Beryl
is now well inland over Arkansas and its influence over the Gulf
waters has subsided. An upper level low near the NW Bahamas 
supports a few showers over the eastern Gulf waters and a tropical
wave moving along the Bay of Campeche is also enhancing the storm
activity in the area. 

Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are present between 86W
and 94W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the Gulf of 
Mexico during the next few of days, resulting in generally 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin.
Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the 
tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
into the Caribean Sea. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong
easterly trade widns in the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Latest scatterometer 
satellite data showed locally near gale-force winds off northern 
Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the central Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of
4-8 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge north of the
Caribbean will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the 
forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the NW 
Caribbean through midweek, pulsing to strong speeds across the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on 
the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low near the NW
Bahamas supports scattered showers to isolated strong convection
west of 71W and north of 25W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under
the influence of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge centered
over the central Atlantic. A large area of dry Saharan dust is
moving across the central and eastern Atlantic, maintaining
generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds north of 15N and east of
23W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low near the NW
Bahamas will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
west of 70W through midweek. Otherwise, high pressure will 
prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. 
Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of
Hispaniola late this week. 

$$
Delgado