..TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2024..

 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of showers and storms off the southeast U.S. coast. This is associated with a broad surface trough of low pressure that is forecast to move inland during the next few days and bring some showers and storms. This area is in a marginally favorable area for development. NHC is giving this system a low 10% formation chance within 48 hours and 7 days. Upper-level conditions don't seem that favorable in this area at this time.

Elsewhere, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for no tropical cyclone formation through July 30th. However, since atmospheric conditions can change, I will continue to monitor as usual.

Yesterday, forecasters at Colorado State University raised their forecast to 12 more for the season, for a total of 25 for the 2024 season. Beryl being the earliest cat 5 to develop in a season has prompted this urgency to up their forecast, making this a hyperactive hurricane season. Although we will be in a lull for a few weeks, forecasters say it will be short-lived and August will come in like a roaring lion. 

So take time to reinforce your house and be hurricane-ready. Have a plan of action for you and your family, and don't forget your pets. I am not trying to scare you all; I am just making sure you take this season seriously and prepare early instead of later.

RTW

https://www.miamidade.gov/global/emergency/hurricane/kits-checklists.page

https://www.ready.gov/kit  

https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/hurricane-supply-checklist/

https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan

https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

Here is the April Forecast so you can compare changes they made yesterday.

Here is July 9 updated forecast.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Beryl, located inland near the Indiana/Ohio border. 

1. Off the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A broad trough of low pressure located off the southeastern U.S. 
coast is currently producing some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
favorable for some additional development of this system over the 
next couple of days before it moves inland over the southeastern 
U.S. by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Hagen