..TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 24, 2024..

 

Hope you all are having a blessed Thursday so far. The tropics remain quiet for now, but they are most definitely going to become active once again after Wednesday of next week, Oct 30 Nov 5. Ensembles like the GEFS and GEPS are hinting at unusual development in the Caribbean. Models hint at the possibility of multiple lows. I do have to admit though that these are forecast runs that change from run to run, so I will not get too excited about what you see at this time. As we get closer to those dates, we will begin to monitor more closely since the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook calls for a greater than 40% probability that a storm will develop in the Caribbean.

High pressure will prevent a northward track, and the moisture that tracks west into the Caribbean from the Atlantic will bottle up in the Caribbean, helping to develop a storm in that region. That high will eventually give way to a trough/cold front moving toward the east and will pull north whatever forms in the Caribbean, either along the eastern Gulf or over Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas. Usually storms that form in the Central Caribbean in November tend to track northeast into the Atlantic. However, those normal days are over, and anything goes nowadays! So I will monitor and will let you know if there is anything of importance you may need to know.

RTW 

And this is why you cannot trust the GFS for long range forecasting. You can see that there is no consistency with the GFS model and this so called storm it says will develop.