Wednesday, August 1, 2018

SOUTH FLORIDA SEVEN DAY FORECAST AUG 1, 2018... 1230 PM EDT


Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 103°F. Southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.



Thursday Aug 2

Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 89°F. Heat index around 100°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.



Friday Aug 3

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 87°F. Heat index around 98°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 80°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 12 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Saturday Aug 4

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Sunday Aug 5

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 98°F. East wind to 14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.



Monday Aug 6

Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 89°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 11 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Night: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 92°F. East wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.



Tuesday Aug 7
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
LIVE NWS MIAMI RADAR
Local Radar

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 1, 2018... 1058 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
080 
AXNT20 KNHC 011205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 08N-18N
along 26W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be severely
affected by the Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by
GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery. This is hindering convection in
the wave environment N of 11N. In the southern wave environment,
the monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection from
07N-11N between 20W-27W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
07N-18N along 41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is also being 
severely affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as 
depicted by GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW 
imagery. No convection is associated to this wave N of 11N. In the
southern wave environment, the monsoon trough and ITCZ support
scattered moderate convection from 07N-10N between 38W-45W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 06N-
17N along 57W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being supported 
by a mid-level inverted trough. A thin layer of dry air from a
former SAL outbreak affects the northern wave environment.
Abundant moderate moisture associated with the ITCZ and diffluece
aloft support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms
from 08N-12N between 50W-63W.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean with axis extending S of
21N along 81W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a shallow
moist environment that support scattered showers and tstms W of
80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W 
and continues to 18N20W, then resumes near 09N27W to 08N34W to
08N40W. The ITCZ begins near 08N43W and continues to 08N56W. 
For information about convection, see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlc subtropical high extends across the E basin supporting 
light to gentle southeasterly flow, except in the NE basin where
convection enhance winds to moderate to fresh. CIRA LPW imagery 
show very moist air at low levels across the basin, which is being
advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist 
environment along with diffluence aloft supports scattered showers
and tstms N of 23N E of 92W. A surface trough extends from 31N84W
to 24N95W and is related to this convection. To the southwest, a 
thermal through currently extending over the Yucatan Peninsula is 
enhancing convection across the eastern portion of the Bay of 
Campeche. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned 
regions through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as
noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle-to-upper
level diffluence is supporting scattered showers N of 18N and 
west of 80W. An upper-level low off the E coast of Jamaica 
support scattered showers over eastern Cuba and the Windward 
Passage related also to a tropical wave. See the section above for
details. Elsewhere, GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry 
air and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the 
development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to move
across the Lesser Antilles by Thu with showers for the Windward 
Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves move across the basin, see the section above
for details. Elsewhere, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the 
basin, supporting fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will 
dominate the basin through the next couple of days providing 
stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/NAR 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
Sahara dust and dry air continues to govern the Central Atlantic.
RTW

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 0334 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
231 
AXNT20 KNHC 311653
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-17N
along 22W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer 
wind shear environment, however is being severely affected by a
Saharan Air Layer outbreak as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA
LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers S of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between
20W-28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
07N-18N along 35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a low 
deep layer wind shear environment, however is being severely 
affected by Saharan Air Layer dry air and dust as depicted by 
GOES-16 RGBs, low-level water vapor and CIRA LPW imagery. No 
convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave in the central Atlc with axis extending from 07N-
17N along 51W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is being supported
by a middle to upper level inverted trough and is mainly in a dry
air environment as depicted by GOES-16 RGBs and CIRA LPW imagery.
Moderate moisture in the southern wave environment associated with
the ITCZ support scattered moderate convection from 07N-12N
between 50W-53W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending S
of 20N along 76W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is mainly in a
strong deep layer wind shear environment and Saharan dust is noted
across the central Caribbean in GOES-16 RGBs imagery. However,
CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture associated with
this wave, which along diffluence aloft support scattered moderate
convection between Colombia and S Panama S of 12N. An upper-level
low centered E of Jamaica support isolated showers across
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. 

A tropical wave is moving off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Bay
of Campeche. Its axis is S of 22N along 91W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave is being supported by a middle-level inverted trough that
along with shallow moisture support scattered showers in the SW
Gulf S of 23N E of 92W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W 
to 09N21W to 09N28W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 09N38W and
continues to 09N49W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 
10N52W and continues to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside 
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers and isolated tstms are from 08N-11N E of 17W and from 
06N- 13N between 50W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlc subtropical high continues to extend a ridge axis SW
across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf, thus supporting
light to gentle south-southeasterly flow. CIRA LPW imagery show
very moist air at the lower levels across the basin, which is 
being advected from the Caribbean by the return flow. This moist 
environment along with diffluence aloft support scattered showers
and tstms N of 23N E of 90W. In the E Bay of Campeche, a tropical
wave support scattered showers. See tropical waves section for
further details. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are
within 90 nm off the SE coast of Texas and SW coast of Louisiana
associated with a frontal system N of the area and anchored by a
1013 mb low in NE Texas. This front is forecast to come off the 
coast of Texas Wed morning, stall from SW Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico Thu morning and weakening to a surface trough late
Thu night. Showers are forecast to continue in the aforementioned
regions through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant shallow moisture is in the NW and central Caribbean as
noted in CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture along with middle to
upper level diffluence is supporting scattered showers and tstms N
of 18N between 79W-86W. Similar convection is in the SW basin S of
12N between 74W-84W, which is associated with the EPAC monsoon
trough that connects to a 1010 mb low off the coast of Colombia
near 10N76W. An upper level low off the E coast of Jamaica support
isolated showers over western Dominican Republic, Haiti and the
Windward Passage. GOES-16 water vapor and RGB imagery show dry air
and dust across the E basin, which in part is hindering the
development of convection. A new tropical wave is forecast to 
move across the Lesser Antilles Thu with showers for the Windward 
Islands. Another tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean on 
Sunday with showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves move across the basin...see section above.
Otherwise, the Atlc subtropical high dominates the basin, thus
supporting mainly fair weather conditions. Surface ridging will 
dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple 
of days providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A Hugh plume of African Sahara dust has moved off the African coast
due to mid to upper level low that has moved off shore kicking up
the dust. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. 
RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2018... 1052 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
047 
AXNT20 KNHC 311206
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 21W from 05N-
17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined surface trough is 
evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum in the total 
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is in 
the southern wave environment from 05N-09N between 14W-27W 
associated with the monsoon trough

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 32W from 
07N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in 
the GFS analysis is noted with this wave. No convection is 
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 47W from 
02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and 
dust inhibit deep convection from developing at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 
72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is inland 
over Venezuela and Hispaniola.

A tropical wave is along 95W, moving westward at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection exists in the Bay of 
Campeche...heavy showers and tstms are E of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W 
to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast 
of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it 
intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection 
is present from 05N-09N east of 25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the 
eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across 
the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely 
scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds 
will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial 
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward 
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf 
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with 
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon 
trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient 
over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds 
around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the 
monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between 
75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above. 
The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is 
observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging 
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next 
couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for 
scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
DM/NR 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time! 

Monday, July 30, 2018

RTW SITE SERVER MAINTENANCE

Seems like SiteBuilder folks are still working on their servers because I now am unable to load the Site Builder tool so I can update RTW site.  This is once again messing with some of the graphics on the page like the tropical wave symbols and those automated pages below that use html script to auto update.  I may not be able to do the afternoon tropical weather outlook on the website, so I will improvise and do a short update here...RTW
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Hurricane center
360 
AXNT20 KNHC 301727
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W 
from 08N-24N, moving westward around 10 kt. A pronounced 700 mb 
trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a 
surface trough as see from the 1142 UTC ASCAT scatterometer 
pass.  The total precipitable water imagery also shows a maximum 
east of the trough axis. No significant deep convection is 
present with this wave at present. This wave does not pose a 
threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending 
from 02N-20N along 41W, moving westward around 15 kt. This was 
only weakly is depicted in the 700 mb tropical trough diagnostic 
and has negligible surface circulation.  North of 13N, the wave 
is embedded with a large Saharan Air Layer.  No significant deep 
convection is present with this wave at present. This wave does 
not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the 
next five days.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
01N-22N near 64W, moving westward about 20 kt. The wave is well-
defined as seen in 700 mb turning of the winds at the San Juan 
and Guadeloupe rawindsondes from 12Z this morning.  There is 
also some slight wind shifts seen in surface observations at the 
1326 UTC ASCAT scatterometer.  Scattered moderate convection is 
inland over Venezuela from 07N-10N between 60W-64W. This wave 
does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during 
the next five days.

A tropical wave is over Central America extending from 00N-20N 
near 88W, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave was 
repositioned farther west, based upon the Cancun and Merida 
rawindsondes winds at 700 mb, as well as the tropical trough 
diagnostics.  Scattered moderate convection exists from 19N-23N 
between 84W-90W. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical 
cyclone development over the Atlantic basin during the next five 
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W 
to 09N21W where it breaks east of a tropical wave.  The ITCZ 
extends from 10N27W to 08N40W. W of a tropical wave, the ITCZ 
resumes near 08N43W and continues to the coast of South America 
near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 05N 
east of 22W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge into the eastern Gulf from the western 
Atlantic.  With a very flat pressure gradient, winds are only 5-
10 kt across the entire Gulf.  An upper level low is centered 
near 27N88W, which is helping to promote isolated moderate 
convection in the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico.  Winds 
will remain light during the next couple of days.  Substantial 
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward 
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf 
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with 
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica association with the NE 
Pacific monsoon trough are contribution toward a moderate 
pressure gradient over the Caribbean.  This results in easterly 
tradewinds for 10-20 kt with a local peak of 25 kt just 
northwest of Colombia as seen in a 1428 UTC ASCAT scatterometer 
pass.  Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean; 
please refer to the section above for details.  Scattered 
moderate convection exists from 19N-23N between 84W-90W.  In the 
southwest Caribbean, the NE Pacific's monsoon trough supports 
numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from 07N-12N 
between 77W-85W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica. 
Little change is expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin; please refer to 
the section above for details. A 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores high 
dominates the remainder of the basin, centered near 35N54W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed over the W Atlantic N 
of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and 
eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing 
stable and dry conditions, except for scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave currently near 26W.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
 
 
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ralph's Tropical Weather
So far there are no changes in the tropics there are four waves across 
the Atlantic.  So far the first two are being affected by Sahara dust
and dry air and the other two are not showing signs of tropical cyclone
formation at this time.  There is a lot of tropical moisture flowing over
Florida as the Peninsula is sandwiched in between two upper level
lows one in the Gulf and the other near Eastern Cuba.  There are no
signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW
 
 

RTW WEBSITE NOT LOADING JULY 30, 2018

If your having problems loading Ralph's Tropical Weather website its due to sever provider doing some maintenance work to their server.  They are adding SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) to the webpages.  This will add an SSL certificate that is now required when using Google Browser among others.  According to them this will make RTW website more secure and safe to use when visiting.  Please be patient and check back later.  I have done this mornings tropical update so when its back up you can view the morning tropical outlook.

Thank for you patience and understanding!
RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 30, 2018... 1035 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
685 
AXNT20 KNHC 301156
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands along 26W 
from 06N-22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is 
noted with this wave, and model guidance supports its location. 
No significant deep convection is present with this wave at 
present.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending 
from 05N-20N along 40W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb 
low is centered near 21N38W over the northern portion of the 
wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering 
convection with this wave. 

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
06N-20N along 63W, moving westward at 20 kt. Intrusion of 
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering 
convection with this feature N of 12N. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is inland over Venezuela from 04N-07N between 62W-
67W. 

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 08N-20N along 77W, moving westward at 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate and isolated deep convection exists from 17N-
20N between 74W-78W. Numerous moderate and scattered deep 
convection is occurring from 06N-11N between 74W-78W over the SW 
Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and NW Colombia.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W 
to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 08N38W. W of a 
tropical wave, the ITCZ resumes near 08N42W and continues to the 
coast of South America near 07N58W. Scattered moderate 
convection exists north of 04N east of 18W.  Scattered showers 
are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the basin along 29N. 5-10 kt 
variable winds prevail over most of the Gulf waters. Scattered 
moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 28N E of 88W. Expect 
convection to increase over the E Gulf through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture prevails across the NW basin; and two tropical 
wave are moving across the Caribbean. Refer to the section above 
for details. A divergent environment aloft is supporting 
scattered moderate and isolated deep convection from 17N-20N 
between 74W-78W and 19N-21N between 81W-85W. In the southwest 
Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough and a tropical wave 
supports numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from 
06N-11N between 74W-78W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa 
Rica, and NW Colombia.  Fresh to strong winds are forecast to 
pulse every night over the south-central basin through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to 
the section above for details. Diffluent flow between the base of 
an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continues to 
support scattered moderate convection over the W Atlantic N of 
25N to include the Bahamas W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical 
ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 
1028 mb high centered near 37N45W. Surface ridging will dominate 
the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing 
stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea/Formosa 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The tropics remain quiet, no storm formation to report...RTW

Saturday, July 28, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 28, 2018... 0226 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
789 
AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis 
extending from 09N-21N along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 
700 mb trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan 
dry air and dust is hindering convection with this wave. 

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 07N-21N along 48W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering 
convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is developing
along and south of 10N mainly near the monsoon trough. 

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
08N-20N along 63W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Intrusion 
of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are W of the wave axis 
from 06N-11N between 60W-65W. 

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south 
of 21N along 84W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 09N-12N 
between 80W-85W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 22N17W 
to 11N22W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 08N60W. 
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section
above, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin with 5-10 kt 
anticyclonic winds prevailing mainly across the eastern gulf. A 
stationary front is just N of the Florida Panhandle, enhancing
convection north of 29N and east of 88W. Scattered showers remain
over Florida. A surface trough extends across the Florida
Keys/Straits from 22N85W to 26N81W with scattered showers. Mostly
fair weather prevails elsewhere. This weather pattern will
continue over the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the 
Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move 
into this region by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent 
environment aloft are supporting scattered showers over the NW 
Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. In the southwest 
Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers 
south of 12N between 76W-85W. This activity is also related to a 
tropical wave, currently extending along 84W. Isolated showers 
are occurring over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba due to an upper-
level low centered north of Hispaniola near 21N71W. A tropical 
wave is over the E Caribbean along 64W. Another tropical wave 
will enter the east Caribbean by late Sunday. Fresh to strong 
winds are forecast for the south-central basin through the 
weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to 
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the 
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high 
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers 
north of 25N W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates 
the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high 
centered near 38N48W. Surface ridging will dominate the central 
and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry 
conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The tropics remains suppressed by African dust and dry air...RTW

Friday, July 27, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 27, 2018... 0258 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
698 
AXNT20 KNHC 271728
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis 
from 05N-17N along 32W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being 
covered by a Saharan air, which is suppressing convection mainly 
north of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with the monsoon trough
and diffluence in the upper-levels support scattered showers 
along the wave's axis south of 10N. 

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis extending from
05N-17N along 42W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Intrusion of 
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering 
convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 06N-19N along 57W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Similar 
to the tropical wave to the east, Saharan dry air and dust is 
inhibiting convection with this feature.

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south 
of 21N along 77W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted 
along the southern portion of the wave where it meets the monsoon 
trough S of 12N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W 
to 06N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 06N55W. Scattered 
showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 22W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends its axis SW across the 
basin, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds basin- 
wide. A surface trough is moving over the Bay of Campeche 
enhancing winds in this area to moderate levels. The trough will 
then dissipate this afternoon. This feature will develop again 
over the next several nights with winds increasing to locally 
fresh at times. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at lower levels show 
very dry air in the Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail across the 
basin through the weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the 
Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move 
into this region by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent 
environment aloft are supporting scattered showers within 90 nm 
off the coast of Cuba. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's 
monsoon trough supports scattered showers south of 12N between 
75W-83W. This activity is also related to a tropical wave, 
currently extending along 77W. Refer to the section above for more
details. Isolated showers are occurring in the northern Leeward 
Islands and the Virgin Islands being supported by diffluence aloft
associated to an upper-level low centered northeast of Puerto 
Rico. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser 
Antilles tonight, and a second wave will enter the east Caribbean
by Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for 
the south-central basin through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the 
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers 
and tstms north of 20N W of 70W. The upper-level trough will 
prevail through today, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity 
over this area. Farther east, a middle level low just north of 
Hispaniola supports a surface trough that extends from 25N66W to 
22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this features
between 64W-70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the 
remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high centered 
near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern
Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No change the tropics remain quiet... RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 27, 2018...1034 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
270 
AXNT20 KNHC 271156
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis 
extending from 06N-16N along 30W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave 
is being covered by a Saharan air layer outbreak, which dry air 
and dust suppresses convection mainly N of 10N. Shallow moisture 
associated with the monsoon trough and diffluence in the upper 
levels support scattered moderate convection from 06N-10N between 
30W- 35W. 

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis extending from
05N-17N along 41W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of 
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment hinders 
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 06N-19N along 56W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Similar 
to the tropical wave to the E, Saharan dry air and dust hinders 
convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis S of 21N 
along 76W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Both GOES-16 water vapor imagery
and CIRA LPW imagery at lower levels show a very dry environment 
in this region. Scattered showers are noted along the southern
portion of the wave where it meets the monsoon trough S of 11N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W 
to 07N27W to 05N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 06N54W.
Scattered showers are noted alog the axis between 16W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends an axis SW across the
Florida peninsula and into the E Gulf, thus supporting light to
gentle variable winds basin-wide. A surface trough is moving over
the Bay of Campeche this morning enhancing winds in the eastern 
half of the SW gulf to moderate levels. The trough will then 
dissipate later this morning. This feature will continue the next
several night with winds increasing to locally fresh at times. 
GOES-16 water vapor imagery at lower levels show very dry air in 
the Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through 
the weekend. Otherwise, isolated showers and tstms are likely in 
the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will move
into this region Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean, low deep layer wind shear 
along with a divergent environment aloft are supporting heavy
showers and tstms within 90 nm off the coast of Cuba. In the SW
Caribbean, the EPAC monsoon continue to support scattered showers
and tstms within 105 nm of the coast of NW Colombia, Panama and
Costa Rica. Isolated showers are occurring in the northern Leeward
Islands and the Virgin Islands being supported by diffluence aloft
associated to an upper level low NE of Puerto Rico. A tropical
wave moves over the central basin, however general hostile
conditions across the basin associated with strong shear and dry
air hinder convection at the time. See the waves section for
further details. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across 
the Lesser Antilles tonight, and a second wave will enter the E 
Caribbean Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast
for the south-central basin through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the 
base of an upper trough over the SE CONUS and a high over the 
northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers and tstms N
of 23N W of 70W. The upper-level trough will prevail through 
today, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over this area. 
Farther east, a middle level low just N of Hispaniola supports a 
surface trough that extends from 20N68W to 26N67W along with 
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 21N to 27N between 65W 
and 70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of
the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 37N53W. 
Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic 
through the end of the week providing stable and dry conditions. 

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Ramos/ERA 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The tropical Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet for now. 
RTW 

Thursday, July 26, 2018

TROPIC OUTLOOK JULY 26. 2018... 0300 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
107 
AXNT20 KNHC 261717
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with an axis
extending from 18N22W to 05N23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is well defined with a notable 700 mb trough in model
guidance. Deep moisture interacting with the wave S of 10N
is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 10N 
between 21W and 26W. The remainder of the wave environment lacks 
convection due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and 
dust.

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with an axis extending
from 20N37W to 05N38W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave
is associated with a well defined trough at 700 mb. A large area 
of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection from 
developing around this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 11N52W to 06N52W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered thunderstorms are S of 13N within 90 nm of the wave
axis. Strong deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust 
are hindering deep convection across the northern portion of the 
wave.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has been re-analyzed as
of 1500 UTC along 71W based off both long term satellite imagery
and 700 mb model field data. Precipitable water satellite imagery
shows a very dry environment across the central Caribbean, which 
along with strong deep layer wind shear are hindering convection S
of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
12N16W to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 09N51W...then 
resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N54W and continues to 10N60W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N E of 20W, and 
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 54W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with its base 
extending SW from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This 
trough supports a weakening stationary front that extends across 
the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. It also supports a surface
trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to 26N89W. 
Numerous showers and tstms are within 120 nm SE of this trough. 
The front is transitioning to a surface trough. Both troughs are
expected to lift north through tonight. Otherwise, the Atlantic 
subtropical ridge covers the remainder of the SE Gulf and will 
continue to build northwestward across the remainder of the basin
through the weekend. Light to gentle variable flow will dominate 
the basin during this time period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level low centered near Jamaica along with shallow 
moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms N
of 17N between 75W and 83W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough 
supports numerous showers and tstms S of 11N. A tropical wave is 
crossing the central Caribbean waters. Please refer to the 
tropical waves section above for further details. GOES-16 water 
vapor imagery continues to indicate very dry conditions across the
remainder of the basin while enhanced RGB satellite imagery 
indicates a thin layer of Saharan Air Dust moving across the area.
Strong deep layer wind shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. 
These hostile factors are suppressing convection across the 
remainder of the Caribbean basin. A new tropical wave is forecast 
to move across the Lesser Antilles Friday night, with showers and 
thunderstorms beginning to spread across the southern Leeward 
islands starting this evening in advance of the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered 
showers and tstms N of 23N W of 75W are being supported by an 
upper trough along the eastern United States that extends across 
the Florida peninsula. This upper trough will prevail through
Friday, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over this 
area. Farther east, an upper level low supports a surface trough 
that extends from 31N63W to 28N66W. These features support a broad
area of cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated tstms from
20N to 31N between 62W and 70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge 
dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb 
high centered near 37N54W. Surface ridging will dominate the 
central and eastern Atlantic through the end of the week providing
stable and dry conditions. 

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
------------------------------------------------------------------
Sahara dust continues to suppress tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic...RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 26, 2018...0955 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
256 
AXNT20 KNHC 261203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with an axis
extending from 10N21W to 07N21W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is well defined with a notable 700 mb trough in model
guidance. Deep moisture interacting with the wave S of 12N
is generating scattered moderate convection from 07N to 12N 
between 18W and 24W. The remainder wave environment lacks 
convection due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and 
dust.

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with an axis extending
from 20N35W to 07N36W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A large 
area of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection 
from developing around this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 18N49W to 05N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Strong deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust are
hindering deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis 
extending from 21N71W to 11N73W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Precipitable water satellite imagery shows a very dry environment 
across the central Caribbean, which along with strong deep layer 
wind shear are hindering convection S of Hispaniola. Only shallow
moisture and middle level diffluence support scattered showers 
and tstms ahead of the wave in the Windward Passage...off SW 
Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
12N16W to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 08N48W...then 
resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N52W and continues to the 
coast of South America near 09N61W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 06N to 11N E of 18W, and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ axis
between 52W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with base
extending SW from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This
trough supports a weak stationary front that extends across the 
Florida Panhandle to SW Louisiana. It also supports a surface 
trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to 24N89W. 
Isolated showers and tstms are within 75 nm SE of this trough. 
The trough is forecast to dissipate today while the front lifts 
NE of the area. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge covers 
the remainder SE Gulf and will continue to build northwestward 
across the remainder basin through the weekend. Light to gentle 
variable flow will dominate the basin during this time period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered near Jamaica along with shallow 
moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms N
of 17N between 72W and 82W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough 
supports scattered showers and tstms S of 11N. A tropical wave is
crossing the central Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves 
section above for further details. GOES-16 water vapor imagery 
indicates very dry conditions across the remainder of the basin 
while enhanced RGB satellite imagery indicates a thin layer of 
Saharan Air Dust moving across the area. Strong deep layer wind 
shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. These hostile factors are 
suppressing convection across the remainder of the Caribbean 
basin. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser 
Antilles Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered 
showers and tstms are N of the Bahamas W of 76W being supported by
an upper trough along the eastern United States that extends to 
the W Atlc waters. Farther east, an upper level low supports a 
surface trough that extends from 27N62W to 23N67W which is
supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 25N between 61W and 
68W. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the 
remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1031 mb high centered 
near 36N56W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern
Atlantic through the end of the week providing stable and dry 
conditions. 

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
-------------------------------------------------------------------
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW
 

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 25, 2018...0331 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
479 
AXNT20 KNHC 251717
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic west of the Cape
Verde Islands with axis along 34W extending from 05N-19N, moving 
westward at 15-20 kt. A large area of Saharan dry air and dust is 
hindering convective activity from developing at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis along 46W 
from 04N-15N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A large area of 
Saharan dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from 
developing at the time. 

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W
from 08N- 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A large area of Saharan 
dry air and dust is hindering convective activity from developing 
at the time.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 81W
from central Cuba to central Panama, moving westward at 15-20 kt.
Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment along with a 
region of middle to upper level diffluence east of the wave is 
supporting isolated moderate convection off the coasts of E Cuba 
and Jamaica. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over 
the southern portion of the wave along the coasts of Panama and 
Costa Rica S of 11N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
11N15W to 09N20W to 10N34W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 
08N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
08N48W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. 
Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 
07N-12N between 13W-21W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida.
This feature supports a 1013 mb surface low near 30N86W. Diffluence
aloft east of the upper level trough is sustaining convection 
over the W Atlantic off the Florida coast, while diffluence to the
south is producing convection over the south central Gulf of 
Mexico. Convection is expected to continue over these areas 
through Thu. The Atlantic subtropical ridge will then extend an 
axis SW across the eastern Gulf. Surface ridging is forecast to 
continue through the weekend, thus providing light to gentle 
variable flow across the basin. Elsewhere, a surface trough will 
move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each 
evening, accompanied by fresh nocturnal winds. Scattered to 
isolated showers are possible in the Bay of Campeche with the 
surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Scattered 
moderate convection is over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.
Isolated showers are located over waters S of Puerto Rico and 
Hispaniola between 65W and 75W. These showers are being sustained 
by a small region of shallow moisture and diffluence aloft. 
Relatively dry and stable conditions persist elsewhere. Expect 
the surface pressure gradient to support fresh to strong winds in 
the south-central basin through Fri. Elsewhere, stable conditions 
with light to moderate winds are expected. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two more tropical waves are moving across the basin lacking 
convection due to the presence of the dry air in the Saharan Air 
Layer. Refer to the tropical waves section above for more details.
Scattered moderate convection is across the W Atlantic including 
the northern Bahamas, W of 75W. Farther east, a middle to upper 
level low supports an area of scattered moderate convection from 
22N-28N between 56W-64W. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge
dominates the remainder basin being anchored by a 1031 mb high 
centered near 37N55W. 

Expect convection north of the Bahamas through the weekend.
Thesurface pressure gradient between the Atlantic 1031 mb 
subtropical high and the low pressure over the southeast U.S. 
will produce moderate to fresh southerly winds across the waters 
north of 25N and west of 70W including Florida coastal waters 
today. Moderate to fresh winds are also expected south of 22N, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage. Surface ridging 
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the end of
the week providing stable and dry conditions.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW...RTW