TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018... 1117 PM EDT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.  A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night,
and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN OCT 7, 2018...0712 PM EDT

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Northwest Caribbean. 

Satellite imagery shows that Michael's inflow is being cut off by westerly upper level shear at this time.  Slow strengthening is forecast until Michael moves away from the Northwest Caribbean and enters the southern Gulf.

Recon relocated the center of Michael further east of previous location and NHC had to adjust the forecast track Eastward as well. 

The question, is will Michael reform the center further east of present location again?  If so This would throw a monkey wrench in the forecast for the west coast of Florida and the Lower keys if that eastward relocation continues.

The northeast bend over northern Florida at the end of forecast is in response to trough that is tracking east from the central U.S., the timing of this trough determines when the north eastward turn will occur.  Either it crosses the Florida Big Bend or further south of there.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge is keeping the cyclone from tracking northeast for now so the cyclone is forecast to track northward around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle and southward along the Florida west coast including the Keys should closely monitor the progress of Michael and be ready in case the forecast keeps shifting eastward.
RTW

STORM INVEST 92L A POSSIBLE EUROPEAN THREAT

Storm Investigation 92L looks to be a possible European threat, however, if it does acquire sub-tropical or tropical status the conditions are forecast to become unfavorable further east of this system.

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0102 PM EDT

Tropical Depression 14
Fourteen continues organizing and a tropical storm can form at anytime time. 

Models still suggesting a northerly track then a northeasterly track around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Big Bend should continue to monitor the progress of T.D. Fourtine...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0209 AM EDT

PTC  Fourteen
Fourteen continues to show signs of organization and a depression or tropical storm could form at anytime...RTW

WEATHER UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0504 PM EDT

Tropical disturbance Invest 91L slowly becoming better organized.  NHC has now upgraded this system to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.

Watch and warnings issued for a portion the Yucatan and Western Cuba.

Interest in Key West, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of this developing system...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0210 PM EDT

• LESLIE TRACK EASTWARD ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING.

• STORM INVEST 91L STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, 80% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 90% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN, WESTERN CUBA, FLORIDA KEYS, LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

• STORM INVEST 97E IN THE EAST PACIFIC SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND COULD HEAD INTO THE GULF AS WELL.  ITS NOW MOVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SO THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE NOW 0%.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

 LESLIE

 INVEST 91L

 INVEST 97E