RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 11, 2021...12:00 PM EDT

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 11, 2021...12:00 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

NHC IS NOW MONITORING THE SOUTHERN GULF (BAY OF CAMPECHE) FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK.   FORMATION CHANCE IS LOW 20% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE WEST CARIBBEAN HAS SOME STRONG CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS COAST.  THERE IS A WAVE IN THIS REGION AND STORMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN IT REMAINS QUIET.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATIONS: 

WAVE #1 IS LOCATED NEAR 83°-81° WEST A MONSOON TROUGH THAT LAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS WAVE. THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

WAVE #2 IS LOCATED NEAR 68°-66 WEST.  THERE ARE NO SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS WAVES AXIS.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND COAST OF AFRICA

NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME.

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA COAST.  THIS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ).

THE COAST OF AFRICA AND OFF SHORE IS SEEING NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF A MONSOON TROUGH AND A AGGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THIS REGION.  

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATIONS:

WAVE #3 IS LOCATED NEAR 41°-39° WEST.  THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVES AXIS.

WAVE #4 IS LOCATED NEAR 21°-19° WEST.  THIS WAVE HAS NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AGGRESSIVE WAVE.  SO FAR IT SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST LOOKING WAVE THIS SEASON.  

I WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY BUT DRY SAHARA DUST IS ALL OVER THIS AREA AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111143
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over 
the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequent 
slow development of this system is possible as it drifts 
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2021...1246 PM EDT

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

LINK TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 10, 2021...1246 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

THE CENTRAL GULF REMAINS QUIET.  I AM STILL MONITORING THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO NEXT WEEK FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.  IT STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE, BUT TWO OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH.  I WILL KEEP YOU POSTED.  

EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE NORTHWEST, SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.  NHC DROPPED THE STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVES: THERE ARE 2, ONE THAT IS EXITING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 90° WEST NOW AN EAST PACIFIC WAVE AND THE OTHER NEAR 76°-75° WEST.  NONE OF THESE WAVES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

NORTH ATLANTIC HAS A COLD FRONT AND A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TOWARD THE FRONT, MORE THAN LIKELY FROM ANOTHER FRONT THAT MOVED NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.  NO DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

CENTRAL HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE ITCZ.  

AFRICAN COAST HAS NUMEROUS VERY STRONG STORMS MOVING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST.  COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG THE COAST AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE REGION.

TROPICAL WAVES: THERE ARE 2, ONE NEAR 35°-34° WEST AND THE OTHER ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16°-15° WEST.  THIS WAVE HAS VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THE WAVE.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 9, 2021...0441 PM EDT UPDATE

 

QUICK UPDATE

JUNE 9, 2021...0441 PM EDT

 PLEASE NOTE THAT TRACKS ON THE MAP ARE ONLY MY THOUGHT OF WHERE THIS SYSTEM WOULD END UP.  LOUISIANA BEING THE LEAST PROBABLE AREA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND MEXICO AND TEXAS THE MOST PROBABLE.  HOWEVER ITS JUST MY THOUGHT AND ITS NOT OFFICIAL.  REMEMBER TO ALWAYS CHECK ON THE HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE ACCURATE INFORMATION.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091746
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two following the 
passage of a tropical wave.  Significant development of this system 
appears unlikely as it drifts west-northwestward or northwestward 
toward Central America.  Regardless of development, this system 
could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions 
of Central America from Honduras southward late this week and over 
the weekend.  See products from your local meteorological service 
for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 9, 2021...1202 PM EDT

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 9, 2021...1202 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• THE GULF REMAINS STORM FREE FOR NOW, HOWEVER, I WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTHERN GULF FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE HINTING THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM.  

• FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE CARIBBEAN HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE STRONGEST ARE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COLUMBIA COAST AND THE SOUTHERN GULF.  THIS IS DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH INTERACTING WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES TRACKING WEST OVER THIS AREA.  THERE IS AN INVEST WITH LOW FORMATION CHANCE 10% IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN STILL, HOWEVER, THAT MAY CHANGE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF IN THE COMING DAYS, IF MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF. 

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET. 

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS MAINLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND TROPICAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE ATLANTIC.  ALSO THE INTERACTION WITH MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE AFRICAN REGION AND EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS HELPS TO ENHANCE STORMS AS WAVES MOVE OVER THESE TROUGH ZONE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two.  Significant 
development of this system appears unlikely as it drifts 
west-northwestward or northwestward toward Central America.  
Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall 
across northern Colombia and portions of Central America from 
Honduras southward later this week and into the weekend.  See 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

RALPH'S TROPCAL WEATHER OUTLOOK....JUNE 8, 202...0437 PM EDT

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 8, 2021...0437 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO

• UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVED ON SHORE THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS AREA.  THE GULF OTHER WISE REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.

• FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS REMAIN QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BY THIS WEEKEND OR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES MOVING WEST THROUGH THIS REGION THAT COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.  SO WE ARE WAITING FOR TO SEE IF LOW PRESSURE FORMS BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND COLUMBIA.  AT THIS TIME CHANCES ARE LOW THEY DROPPED FROM 30% TO 20%.

• EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS SHOWERS A STORMS TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THIS AREA.  THERE STILL A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO THE ENHANCEMENT FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 2 PASSING THROUGH THIS AREA OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC QUIET FOR NOW.

• CENTRAL HAS TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 3 INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ.

• THE AFRICAN COAST AND INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE REGION.  TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 4 SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  Some 
gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system 
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.  Regardless of 
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across 
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras 
southward later this week and into the weekend.  See products from 
your local meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...JUNE 8, 2021...1021 AM EDT

 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 8, 2021...1021 AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

• THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR NOW.  

• THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS QUIET AS WELL.\

CARIBBEAN SEA

• SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS SOME STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 1 SHOWN ON OUTLOOK MAP AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE MOIST MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.  THIS AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AS YOU WELL KNOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

• THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 2 AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF AFRICA

• THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.

• THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS A TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 3 LOCATED ALONG 46°-45° WEST WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

• THE COAST OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT WATERS ALSO SEEING SOME STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 4.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY A MONSOON TROUGH THAT FLOWS ACROSS THIS AREA.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081147
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  Some gradual 
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves 
slowly northwestward toward Central America.  Regardless of 
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across 
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras 
southward later this week and into the weekend.  See products from 
your local meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 7, 2021 1158 PM EDT

 

 QUICK TROPICAL UPDATE

NHC

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by Wednesday or Thursday.  Some gradual development 
will be possible thereafter while the system moves slowly 
northwestward toward Central America.  Regardless of development, 
this system could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia 
and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later this 
week and into the weekend.  See products from your local 
meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 6, 2021...1126 PM EDT

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 6, 2021...1126 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• THE GULF IS QUIET FOR NOW, HOWEVER MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE LOW MOVING INTO GULF NEXT WEEK AND DEVELOPING.  

•  FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS ALSO QUIET FOR NOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• SOUTH CARIBBEAN HAS A STORM INVESTIGATION WITH LOW FORMATION CHANCE 20% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  IF THAT LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHWEST IT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP.

• A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING WEST OVER COLUMBIA. THERE IS A 1002 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF COLUMBIA WITH STRONG TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC IS QUIET FOR NOW.

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS TWO TROPICAL WAVES NEITHER ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

• AFRICAN COAST HAS STRONG TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED.  THIS COULD BE A NEW TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STORM INVEST

171 
ABNT20 KNHC 062316
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday.  Some gradual development will 
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward 
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

...RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...JUNE 4, 2021...0359 PM EDT

 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 5, 2021...0402 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS

• NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

• FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL QUIET NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN FLOWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  

• SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTHWEST COLUMBIA COAST INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

• TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 1 IS LOCATED NEAR 87°-86° WEST MOVING INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  WAVE NUMBER 2 IS LOCATED NEAR 71°-70° WEST TRACKING EAST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
  

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND THE AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC HAS A FRONT BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT THE ATLANTIC REMAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREE FOR NOW.

• THE CENTRAL HAS THE USUAL INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES.  NUMBER 3 WAVE LOCATED NEAR 45° WEST AND NUMBER 4 WAVE LOCATED NEAR 25°-24° WEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 4, 2021...1012 AM EDT

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 4, 2021...1012 AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• THE WESTERN GULF HAS A SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM DRAWING IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC.  SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STRONG TO MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF EAST OF THE MEXICAN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

• AS FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IT REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET WITH 2 TROPICAL WAVE.  THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN NEAR 80° WEST AND IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MONSOON TROUGH IS IN THAT REGION.

• THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE  IS OVER VENEZUELA SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 64°-63° WEST.  THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

• THIRD WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37° WEST.  THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS WAVE IS LYING ALONG THE ITCZ, SO THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THIS AREA BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.  

• ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AFRICAN COAST THERE ARE STRONG TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THIS IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THAT REGION.  THIS COULD BE ANOTHER WAVE THAT IS MOVING OF THE COAST OF AFRICA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

RTW

 

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 3, 2021

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 3, 2021...1004AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• THE GULF, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.  THE CIRCULATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA IS
  

CARIBBEAN SEA

• SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

• TROPICAL WAVE OVER NORTHWEST COLUMBIA COAST AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS TRACKING WEST INTER-ACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THAT REGION.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF AFRICA

• THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET, THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.  THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AS WELL.

• TROPICAL WAVE NUMBER 2 IS NEARING THE NORTHEAST VENEZUELA COAST AND WAVE NUMBER 3 IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. NEITHER OF THESE WAVES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

 

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 2, 2021

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 2, 2021...1113 AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS QUIET WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TEXAS.

• THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS OFF SHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WEST OVER FLORIDA.  THIS TROUGH WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

• THE BAHAMAS IS STILL ENCOUNTERING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SOME AREAS STRONGER THAN OTHER DUE TO A LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE CARIBBEAN IS ENCOUNTERING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CUBA.  THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALSO SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLUMBIA AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THIS AREA WHERE THERE IS A MONSOONAL TROUGH.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICA COAST

• THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET.  

• THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS 2 TROPICAL WAVES 1 NEAR 40°-37° WEST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 25°-24° WEST.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS, AND STORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THESE WAVES, THIS IS DUE TO THE INTER-ACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALSO, THERE IS SAHARA DUST NORTH OF THIS PRECIPITATION, AND THAT WILL SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. 

 TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

RTW