RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 15, 2021

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151717
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax, 
Canada.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay 
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad 
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during 
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur 
during that time period due to its close proximity to land.  
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by 
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in 
the week when the low moves across the central and 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America 
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains 
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast 
on Friday. Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical 
wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the 
next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a 
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should 
end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central 
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL STORM BILL 11 AM EDT UPDATE

 

...BILL RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... 

11:00 AM AST Tue Jun 15
Location: 40.5°N 62.0°W
Moving: NE at 38 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 15, 2021

 

 >>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

JUNE 15, 2021...11:44AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

THE SOUTHERN GULF STILL SEEING STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MEXICO,YUCATAN, NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92L WHICH REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHERN GULF).

THIS SYSTEM STILL STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH SOME SAHARA DUST OVER THIS SYSTEM AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 70% CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 5-DAYS.

FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA

STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.  TROPICAL WAVE #1 MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FROM DISTURBANCE (INVEST 92L) IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STORM FREE WITH EVEN WITH TROPICAL WAVE #2 PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.  THERE IS DRY SAHARA DUST AND AIR IN THE CARIBBEAN.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

NORTH ATLANTIC HAS SHORT LIVED TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE CAROLINA'S MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH BILLS MOISTURE TAIL.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC SEEING SOME STORMS AHEAD TROPICAL WAVE #3 WHICH IS COVERED BY SAHARA DUST.

AFRICAN COAST AND OFF SHORE WATERS SEEING SOME STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS.  TROPICAL WAVE #4  IS BEHIND A OF 1010mb LOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94L WHICH HAS A 20% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of 
Nantucket, Massachusetts. 

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of 
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low 
pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the 
next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during 
that time period.  However, the disturbance should begin to move 
northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
late in the week when the low moves across the central or 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern 
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to 
impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized 
during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave 
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple 
of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of 
dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should limit the chances 
of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bill are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bill are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TROPICAL STORM BILL JUNE 15, 2021

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

 ...BILL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... 

5:00 AM AST Tue Jun 15
Location: 38.5°N 67.2°W
Moving: NE at 31 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AND DEPRESSION #2 UPDATE

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE CHECK LINK FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BELOW:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

TRACKING THE TROPICS

JUNE 14, 2021...

STORM INVESTIGATION 92L SOUTHERN GULF AND STORM INVESTIGATION 94L AFRICAN COAST

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141914
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the 
Outer Banks of North Carolina.  

Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in 
association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of 
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it 
meanders near the coast of Mexico.  The system should begin to move 
northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
late in the week when the low moves across the central or 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern 
Mexico during the next several days.  Heavy rains could also begin 
to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please 
consult products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south- 
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but 
disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some 
development of this system is possible during the next few days 
before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds 
limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central 
tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...

5:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 14
Location: 35.5°N 72.0°W
Moving: NE at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AND TROPICA DEPRESSION #2 JUNE 14, 2021...12:19AM EDT

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

JUNE 14, 2021...12:19AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• STILL MONITORING STORM INVESTIGATION 92L STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MED 60% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THERE ARE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO MODERATE STORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92L. TRACK FOR THIS DISTURBANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS SUGGEST A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM OR DEPRESSION TRACKING NORTH OR NORTHEAST. 
  

• INLAND FLORIDA AND OFF SHORE THE WEST AND EAST COAST ARE SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2, AND SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BECOME STRONG TODAY.  THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE STORMS OFF SHORE THE WEST COAST AS THEY MOVE ON SHORE.  THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO ENCOUNTERING SOME OF THE STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

• OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THERE IS TROP DEPRESSION #2.  STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW.  TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM IS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG TO CLUSTERS OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE #1 AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

• EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALSO HAS A STRONG TO MODERATE CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE #2 APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE THAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 . OTHER THAN THAT IT REMAINS TROPICAL STORM FREE FOR NOW.

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR IS STILL IN THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC.

• AFRICAN CONTINENT AND OFF SHORE IS SEEING STRONG TO NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINS SINCE YESTERDAY AS AN AGGRESSIVE NEW TROPICAL WAVE #5 MAKES ITS WAY TO THE WEST.  

• THIS NEW WAVE HAS CAUGHT THIS ATTENTION OF NHC METEOROLOGIST AND IS NOW A STORM INVESTIGATION WITH NO NUMBER AT THIS TIME.  IF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY UP TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FORMATION IT WILL BE NAMED STORM INVEST 94L.

• THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOSTLY WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST, MOVING THIS WAVE INTO SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR THAT WILL DISRUPT DEVELOPMENT.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a 
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of 
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical 
characteristics.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form later today or tonight.  This system is expected to 
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder 
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for 
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are 
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of 
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while 
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression 
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into 
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern 
Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult products from 
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some development 
of this system is possible during the next few days before a 
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any 
chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical 
Atlantic Ocean late week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... 

11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 14

Location: 35.0°N 73.7°W

Moving: NE at 21 mph

Min pressure: 1006 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  

RTW TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE JUNE 13, 2021

 

TROPICAL UPDATE

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS

SOUTHERN GULF SEEING STRONG THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM INVEST 92L.  SHOWERS A STRONG STORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

STORM INVEST 92L NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 50% THROUGH 5 DAYS.

FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORM OFFSHORE.

CARIBBEAN SEA

CUBA IS SEEING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL.

SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALSO SEEING STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL, AFRICAN COAST 

ATLANTIC HAS A NEW STORM INVEST EAST OF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 5 DAYS.

SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF SHORE THE CAROLINA'S.

SHOWERS STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAP.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL HAS SOME SHOWERS.  THE AFRICAN COAST AND WESTERN CONTINENT SEEING VERY STRONG TO NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS MORE THAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

856 
ABNT20 KNHC 131747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche 
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the overall 
system has become somewhat better organized since yesterday.  Slow 
development is possible during the next few days while the system 
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could 
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly 
northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible 
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the 
next several days.  Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure has formed about 150 miles 
south of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to move
northeastward for the next few days near the warm Gulf Stream, 
which could allow for some tropical development to occur while it 
moves away from the United States.  The low should be over cold 
waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 2021...04:49 PM EDT

 

 >>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

STORM INVESTIGATION 92L UPDATE

JUNE 12, 2021...0452 PM EDT

CLOUDINESS AND SOME STRONG STORMS ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER THE YUCATAN AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (BOC).  THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE STORM INVEST 92L IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.  

THIS SYSTEM IS STATIONARY AT THIS TIME AND ITS HARD TO TELL WHICH WAY IT WILL GO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SO INTEREST FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121752
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the 
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.  
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several 
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression 
could form in this area by the middle of next week.  Regardless of 
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico.  Please consult 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/