RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 24, 2021...09:34AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241124
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is decreasing this 
morning to the east of a small area of low pressure located more 
than 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados.  Increasing upper-level 
winds are likely to prevent further development of this system 
during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 
about 10 mph.  This disturbance could produce increased shower 
activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser 
Antilles over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A strong tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of Africa this 
morning.  Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool over 
the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive for 
development, a small tropical depression could form by early next 
week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 
15 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...NEW FUTURE INVEST THIS COMING WEEK AFRICAN COAST...

 

TRACK THE TROPICS WITH RTW

THE STORM INVEST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS STILL HAS A LOW 10% FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND 5-DAYS.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS INVEST WILL KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING.

A FUTURE STRONGER WAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST BY FRIDAY OR THE WEEKEND.  MODELS THIS MORNING HAD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRACKING IT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH AN AREA OF SQUALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  THIS ONE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

FORMATION CHANCE FOR FUTURE INVEST IS LOW 0% THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

REMEMBER THOUGH LONG RANGE FORECAST USUALLY HAVE ERROR IN THE FORECAST.

RTW

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 23, 2021...0940AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE:

STORM INVEST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS NOT CHANGED AND CHANCES FOR FORMATION ARE EVEN LOWER 10% THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THROUGH 5-DAYS.  CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 22, 2021...02:09 PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS

STORM INVEST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS NOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  FORMATION CHANCE ARE LOW 20% THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221738
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized associated with the 
tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. 
In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate 
the wave has not become better defined since yesterday. This system 
is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and has a 
limited amount of time remaining for development before 
upper-level winds become less favorable by Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...09:02AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS

JUNE 22, 2021...09:02AM EDT

INVEST EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THIS ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS WAVE IS UNDER INVESTIGATION BY NHC AND HAS A 30% CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH 5-DAYS.  THE GFS MODEL HAS DROPPED THE DISTURBANCE TURNING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF, BUT THERE IS NOTHING NEW WITH THAT.  LONG RANGE FORECAST IS UNRELIABLE.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221142
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with 
the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Windward 
Islands. Some additional development of this disturbance is possible 
over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less 
conducive for further organization by Thursday. The system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

...MESOCYCLONE TYPE THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF NOT TROPICAL IN NATURE...

 

I MENTION IN THIS MORNINGS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE/ SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH CLAUDETTE THAT COULD BECOME STRONGER STORM AS THEY TRACK EAST TOWARD FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.  

NORTH FLORIDA IS SEEING STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS THIS HUGH BLOB THAT HAS DEVELOPED.  A MESOCYCLONE TYPE OF THUNDERSTORM NOT TROPICAL IN NATURE.  

I WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY BUT NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANY DEVELOPMENT HERE AT THIS TIME.  GUST NEAR THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 28-36 MPH.

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 21, 2021...02:35PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211717
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Claudette, located over the western Atlantic about 150 miles 
east-northeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

A tropical wave located about 750 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few 
thunderstorms.  Although shower activity has diminished some this 
afternoon, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that 
the wave has become better defined since yesterday. Some additional 
development of this disturbance will be possible during the next 
couple of days before upper-level winds become less conducive for 
further organization by Thursday.  The system is expected to move 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE 11AM EDT UPDATE

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...CLAUDETTE NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...

11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 21
Location: 37.0°N 75.0°W
Moving: ENE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

  

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 21, 2021...1020AM EDT

 

RTW TROPICAL OUTLOOK 

JUNE 21, 2021...1020AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST AND THE BAHAMAS

THE GULF IS QUIET ACCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF STILL SEEING RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.

THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED WITH SOME STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS OFF SHORE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EAST TOWARD FLORIDA. 

FLORIDA IS CLOUDY AND VERY HUMID AND CLAUDETTE MOISTURE IS SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STORM.  BAHAMAS COULD SEE SOME STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN HEATS THE SURFACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA

CARIBBEAN IS QUIET FOR NOW BUT THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PANAMA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM CELL IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70° WEST HAS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  

EASTERN CARIBBEAN QUIET FOR NOW

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

 NORTH ATLANTIC HAS CLAUDETTE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SHORE, BUT THE REST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS A NEW STORM INVEST WITH A LOW 20% CHANCE OF FORMING THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

THERE IS A WAVE BEHIND THIS INVEST MORE THAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM INVEST.  MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE WAVE WHICH IS NEAR 45° WEST.  BEHIND THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 35°-33° WEST.  THIS WAVE IS VOID OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  

LAST WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17°-16° WEST.  THIS SEEMS LIKE A STRONG WAVE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO BEING IN ENHANCED BY THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND THE WAVES INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211111
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Claudette, located inland over northeastern 
North Carolina.

A well-defined tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast 
of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Some development of this disturbance will be possible 
during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less 
conducive for further organization by Thursday.  The system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ABOUT TO MERGE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ENTER INTO THE ATLANTIC

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...CLAUDETTE NEARING THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...  

8:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 21
Location: 36.4°N 76.3°W
Moving: ENE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

Happy Father's Day

 

Hope you all had a memorable Father's Day!  I took Saturday  and Sunday off to enjoy my father's day weekend.  I will resume tropical updates tomorrow Monday June 21, 2021.

RTW 

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE #3 JUNE 18, 2021...1000 PM CDT

 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION...  

10:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18
Location: 16.3°N 102.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

 

 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather