TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVING BRISKLY TO THE WEST AT 25 MPH...JULY 1, 2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA MOVING TO FAST FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.  

TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES (SEE NHC WATCH AND WARNING SUMMARY IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY SECTION)

RTW

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

8:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1
Location: 9.6°N 50.2°W
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... 

CLICK ON BELOW LINK FOR THIS EVENING NEXT UPDATE:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

5:00 PM AST Wed Jun 30
Location: 9.6°N 43.7°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

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Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

 

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 30, 2021...03:49PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE

INVEST 95L FORMATION CHANCE DOWN TO LOW 0%, AS FOR INVEST 97L FORMATION CHANCE INCREASED TO HIGH 70% THROUGH 48HOURS AND HIGH 90% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

554 
ABNT20 KNHC 301735
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area 
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.  
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance 
does not have a well-defined circulation.  Environmental conditions 
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two 
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.  
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress 
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, 
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are 
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the Lesser Antilles.  This system has become less 
organized since yesterday, and significant development is no longer 
expected while it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea.  
The wave should continue to produce locally heavy rains over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 30, 2021...11:21AM EDT...

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE:"

STILL MONITORING TWO TROPICAL WAVES WHICH ARE BOTH STORM INVESTIGATIONS.

1. INVEST 95L: WHICH HAS A FORMATION LOW CHANCE THROUGH 48HS 10% AND LOW 10% THROUGH 5-DAYS.  MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING QUICKLY AND DISSIPATING.

2. INVEST 97L: WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE HEALTHIEST OF THE TWO WAVES AND GFS MODEL TENDS TO TRACK THIS ONE FURTHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WAVE TO ME IS THE ONE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR NOW.  

97L HAS A HIGH FORMATION CHANCE 80% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE GFS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST MODEL AND THERE IS ALWAYS ERROR IN THE FORECAST RUN.  HOWEVER, PERSISTENCE IN THE MODEL RUN WILL ALWAYS GRAB MY ATTENTION.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT SHOE MUCH BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IN TIME.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301138
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands.  This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves 
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing 
through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and 
central Caribbean Sea later this week.  Regardless of development, 
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the 
Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 NOTICING MODELS TRENDING TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACKS. 

BOTH THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 29, 2021...04:07PM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS STORM INVEST 95L AND 97L

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

FOR EVENING UPDATE CLICK ON NHC WEBSITE LINK BELOW:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about 650 miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles.  Some slow development of this 
disturbance is possible later this week while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, likely reaching the 
Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.  Regardless of development, 
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the 
Lesser Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs 
of organization.  Additional development of this system is possible 
during the next several days as it moves generally west- 
northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

PLEASE NOTE THAT NOAA HAS BEEN DOING MAINTENANCE TO THEIR SATELLITE TODAY. THIS SATELLITE OUTAGE CAUSES A SHORTER ANIMATION DUE TO MISSING IMAGES.  SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

RTW

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Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JUNE 29, 2021...10:31AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS INVEST 95L AND 97L IN THE ATLANTIC

INVEST 95L MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES, BUT THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT95L WILL BE A SHORT LIVED STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EAST CARIBBEAN.

FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS LOW 30% AND MED 40% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

INVEST 97L THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT 97L WILL SURVIVE AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER, THIS IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST RUN AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COMING MODEL RUN TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME.  THE EURO MODEL SHOW LOW PRESSURE WITH AN AREA OF SQUALLS TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM, TRACKING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  

FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 10% AND LOW 20% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

796 
ABNT20 KNHC 291140
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the 
remnants of Tropical Depression Danny, located inland over eastern 
Georgia.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic, about 850 miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles.  Some slow development of this 
disturbance is possible later this week and this weekend while the 
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, likely 
reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little 
better organized since yesterday.  Additional slow development of 
this system is possible during the next several days as it moves 
generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on the remnants of Danny are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on the remnants of Danny are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE STORM INVEST 95L

 STORM INVEST 98L NOT LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER, SOME SLOW ORGANIZATION COULD OCCUR AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

557 
ABNT20 KNHC 281748
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Depression Four, located less than 100 miles east-southeast 
of Beaufort, South Carolina.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is 
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  Some slow 
development of this disturbance is possible after the middle of the 
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 
20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather