RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AFTERNOON UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

STORM INVEST 90L STILL REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH DRY AIR ALONG THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.  THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THERE HAS BEEN WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DRY THAT HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THIS WEAK FRONT.

SO AT THIS TIME NHC IS CALLING FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A CHANCE 90L TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM AS IT MEANDERS OFF SHORE AND BEGINS A WESTWARD DRIFT TOWARD FLORIDA.  FLORIDIANS NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized in association 
with the low pressure system located about 200 miles east of Daytona 
Beach, Florida. Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression 
could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts 
westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida should 
continue to monitor the progress of this system.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the 
system further.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS MORNING UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED SOME MORE OVER NIGHT, HOWEVER THE LOW REMAINS VOID OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THE STORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  WIND GUST AND WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE NOT REACH DEPRESSION STRENGTH AT THIS TIME BUT ACCORDING TO NHC CONDITION COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorm activity has increased a bit this morning 
in association with the low pressure system located about 200 miles 
east of Daytona Beach, Florida. Nearby buoy observations also 
indicate that surface pressures have been falling close to the 
center of this system. However, the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located primarily 
south and east of the center. Environmental conditions are 
forecasted to become a bit more favorable for development, and a 
tropical depression could form over the next day or so while the low 
meanders offshore of the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS EVENING UPDATE JULY 23, 2021

 

CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated low pressure area centered about 150 miles east of 
Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce some showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system has become better organized since 
yesterday, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend 
while the low meanders offshore or near the Florida peninsula.  
Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AFTERNOON UPDATE...JULY 23, 2021...03:08PM EDT

 

STORM INVEST 90L GRADUALLY GATHERING STEAM AS IT SITS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE TO HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.  I'LL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 8 OR 9PM TONIGHT.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located off of the southeastern United 
States coastline continues to produce a large region of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear 
marginally conducive for additional development and a tropical 
depression could form over the next couple of days as the 
system meanders over the Gulf Stream, just offshore of the 
southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JULY 23, 2021...09:40AM EDT

 

LOW FROM THE STORM INVEST HAS EMERGED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.  THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A LOW 30% CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH 48HRS AND 5-DAYS.

WE WILL MONITOR IT OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MEANS MORE RAIN AND STORMS. 

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is located just offshore of the 
southeastern United States coastline. Shower and thunderstorm 
activity has increased this morning, and environmental conditions 
appear marginally conducive for some additional development during 
the next couple of days while the system drifts offshore of 
the southeastern United States. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

RTW TRAXCKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JULY 22, 2021...03:22 PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southeast Georgia is 
expected to move off of the southeastern United States coastline 
later this evening. Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the 
weekend and into early next week while the system drifts slowly 
offshore of the southeastern United States. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...JULY 22, 2021...10:52AM EDT

 

STILL MONITORING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA THAT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS INVEST HAS A LOW FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HRS 10% AND A LOW FORMATION CHANCE 30% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

NHC

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Georgia is 
expected to move off of the southeastern United States coastline by 
Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally 
conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into 
early next week while the system drifts slowly offshore of coastal 
North and South Carolina. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

ELSE WHERE IN THE TROPICS THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS A GALE WIND WARNING DUE TO LOW PRESSURE IN THIS REGION AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS TWO WAVES, FIRST ONE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THERE IS SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE MAINLY INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.  THE SECOND WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.

RTW

RTW TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 21, 2021...03:49PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

670 
ABNT20 KNHC 211740
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure associated with a decaying frontal 
boundary over Mississippi and Alabama is forecast to move offshore 
of the southeastern United States coastline by the end of this week. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for 
some gradual development over the weekend into early next week while 
the system meanders offshore of the coasts of South Carolina, 
Georgia, and northeastern Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven