RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS MORNING UPDATE JULY 26, 2021

 

 INVEST 90L REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT 30%.  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261144
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and radar data indicate that shower and 
thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located 
a short distance east of Jacksonville, Florida, remains disorganized 
and limited in coverage.  Development of this system has become less 
likely before the low moves inland over northeastern Florida or 
southeastern Georgia later today.  However, interests in these areas 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system due to the 
possibility of brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy 
rainfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS AFTERNOON UPDATE JULY 25, 2021

 

NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH DRY AIR HAS BEEN REPLACED BY MOISTURE IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  PRESSURE DROPPED A MILLIBAR FROM 1013MB TO 1012MB.  NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.  THERE STILL A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO GEORGIA.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251757
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located about 150 miles east of Daytona Beach, 
Florida, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity 
mainly over the southern part of its circulation.  Preliminary 
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that this system has changed little in strength since yesterday.  
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression could still form later today or early 
Monday while the low drifts westward or west-northwestward toward 
the northeast coast of Florida.  Interests in Florida should 
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS MORNING UPDATE JULY 25, 2021

 

STORM INVEST 90L HAS A WELL DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THIS MORNING I AM SEEING MOISTURE RAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  I WILL MONITOR THIS BURST OF STORMS TO SEE IF IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.  

THERE IS STILL DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MOISTURE RETURNING IS AN INDICATION THAT WIND SHEAR HAS LESSEN OVER NIGHT.  

PRESSURES REMAIN STEADY AT 1013MB NO CHANGE THERE.  WIND GUST OBSERVATION NEAR THIS SYSTEM 18MPH WAS THE HIGHEST GUST.

THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IF THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND RAP AROUND THE CENTER.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure area located about 160 miles east of 
Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity mainly to the east and southeast of the 
center.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still 
form later today or early Monday while the system drifts westward 
toward the east coast of Florida.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this 
afternoon, if necessary.  Interests in Florida should continue to 
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS EVENING UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

INVEST 90L LOOKS EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIR THAT A WEAK FRONT USHERED IN.  THIS HAS DRIED UP ALL THE THUNDERSTORM OFF SHORE AND NEAR THE CENTER.  TWO MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PASSING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242325
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Earlier this afternoon and evening, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system off the east 
coast of Florida and found a well-defined center of circulation 
about 185 miles east of Cape Canaveral.  However, the system still 
lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center 
and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated as a 
tropical depression.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while 
the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east 
coast of Florida.  Interests in Florida should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system Sunday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake