RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS EVENING UPDATE JULY 24, 2021

 

INVEST 90L LOOKS EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIR THAT A WEAK FRONT USHERED IN.  THIS HAS DRIED UP ALL THE THUNDERSTORM OFF SHORE AND NEAR THE CENTER.  TWO MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PASSING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242325
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Earlier this afternoon and evening, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system off the east 
coast of Florida and found a well-defined center of circulation 
about 185 miles east of Cape Canaveral.  However, the system still 
lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center 
and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated as a 
tropical depression.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while 
the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east 
coast of Florida.  Interests in Florida should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system Sunday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake