RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 6, 2021 03:36 PM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061738
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few 
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with 
a tropical wave and an associated broad area of low pressure.  
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual 
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression 
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic 
is producing limited shower activity. Development, if any, of this 
system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west- 
northwestward and approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 6, 2021

 

STORM INVEST 92L DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS STILL IS A CHANCE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING THE COMING DAYS.  AS LONG AS 92L STAYS AT THE LOWER LATITUDES THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT IF IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, THEN IT WILL RUN INTO SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR LAYER WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE A SHORT LIVED STORM SYSTEM,  BUT SOME SHOW IT RETURNING AS A WEAK LOW NEAR FLORIDA.  THE WEAKER THE SYSTEM THE FURTHER WEST IT WILL TRACK.  

AS FOR THE INVEST EAST OF THE SOUTH AMERICA THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located a 
few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with 
a tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough.  
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual 
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression 
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic 
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, and 
some slow development is possible early next week as it approaches 
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 5, 2021 0334 PM EDT

 

INVEST 92L NOW HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS MEDIUM 40% AND HIGH 70% THROUGH 5-DAYS.

THE OTHER INVEST REMAINS AT LOW 0%-20%

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

655 
ABNT20 KNHC 051729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected 
to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau 
later tonight.  Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands 
by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward 
to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week 
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 5, 2021

 

STORM INVESTIGATION 92L HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 20% AND THROUGH 5-DAYS MEDIUM 60%.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH OF THE LATITUDE ITS PRESENTLY TRACKING ON WHICH IS ALONG THE MOIST MONSOON TROUGH REGION, IT WILL MORE THAN ENCOUNTER DRY AIR.  THIS ABUNDANCE OF SAHARA DUST/DRY AIR LAYER WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TO A NORTHWEST IN THE COMING WEEK.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR YOU.

STORM INVEST EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA  HAS A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48HRS LOW 0% AND A FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS LOW 20%. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051136
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is 
expected to move off of the west African coast later today. 
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for 
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week 
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 4, 2021

 A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF SHORE IN A DAY OR SO HAS A MEDIUM 40% FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS.

INVEST 91L STILL HAS A LOW FORMATION CHANCE 0%

THE OTHER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA HAS A LOW 20% FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5-DAYS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041748
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure area with limited shower and thunderstorm
activity is meandering over or near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Significant development of this system is not expected during the
next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today while the system
moves little. Additional information on the low can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by Meteo-France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into
early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development thereafter over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the system
moves generally westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Additional information on the low pressure system near the Cabo
Verde Islands can be found in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo
France...under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Pagano/Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather

ANOTHER STORM INVESTIGATION ADDED TO ATLANTIC BASIN

 

ANOTHER STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE ATLANTIC THEY SEEM TO BE POPPING LIKE POPCORN.  NOW THAT WE ARE IN AUGUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BEGINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER DRY IN THE ATLANTIC WITH SAHARA DUST STILL LINGERING.  THERE ARE NO GUIDANCE MODELS OUT FOR THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS THEY ARE STILL IN THE LOW FORMATION CHANCE STATUS.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041215 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Corrected order of disturbances

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small and weak area of low pressure, with limited shower and 
thunderstorm activity, is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
Significant development of this system is not expected during the 
next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions. 
Thereafter, this system is forecast to move northward or 
north-northwestward over cooler waters, ending its development 
chances.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is 
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive 
for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and 
into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by 
late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive 
for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the 
weekend into early next week while the system moves generally 
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

>>> Disclaimer <<<

Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information obtained from the Internet unless it comes from a source such as: "NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center, Local Emergency Management Office, or your Local Media".

 

Ralph's Tropical Weather