Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Saturday, September 4, 2021

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE... SEPT 4, 2021

91L NOT WELL ORGANIZED HOWEVER IF IT TRACK NORTH OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS IT COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR STORM. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 1100 miles 
east of the Leeward Islands. 

A weak surface trough over portions of the western Yucatan Peninsula 
of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then moved northward or 
northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico Monday and 
Tuesday.  Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit 
development through Monday, but environmental conditions could 
become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday 
or Wednesday.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are 
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central 
America through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

...LARRY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS WEST NORTHEST...BERMUDA CONTINUE MONITORING LARRY...

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...LARRY IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...

5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 4
Location: 17.4°N 47.1°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

Friday, September 3, 2021

...HURRICANE LARRY A CAT 2 STORM WITH 100 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING LARRY CLOSELY!...

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 3
Location: 15.0°N 42.0°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 3, 2021

INVEST 91L HAS A 0% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HRS AND 30% THROUGH 5 DAYS. BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN GULF AND NORTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME IN THE GULF BUT NOT FAVORABLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED OVER THAT AREA. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY SHOWING STRONG DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 3 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 1100 miles 
west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. 

A surface trough over portions of Central America and the 
southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  This system is expected to move 
west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally 
heavy rains to these areas.  The disturbance is expected to move 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, and then 
move northwestward to northward over the western Gulf of Mexico 
early next week.  However, unfavorable upper-level winds could limit 
significant development during that time.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

...HURRICANE LARRY GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR STORM OVER THE WEEKEND...BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR...

FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT DON'T KNOW WHAT NHC MEANS BY OCEAN SWELLS HERE IS A DEFINITION:

Updated April 24, 2017

By Diana K. Williams

Swells are collections of waves produced by storm winds raging hundreds of miles out to sea, rather than the product of local winds along beaches. They are formed by a combination of factors and are coveted by surfers looking to catch a big wave. However, they are not so revered by boaters as large swells can capsize ships.

NOTE THESE SWELLS ARE PRODUCED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SUCH AS HURRICANES AND EVEN WINTER STORMS MOVING OVER THE OCEAN.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY...

11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 3
Location: 14.8°N 40.7°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph