THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAYS 1-3 SEVERE STORM FORECAST CALL FOR NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE IS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE.
RTW
DAY 1
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY
DAY 2
HERE IS THE AREAS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE STORMS.
MARGINAL RISK: ...Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Pasadena, TX...
Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Pasadena, TX...
Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Pasadena, TX...
Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...College Station, TX...Sugar Land, TX...
WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
DAY 3 MARGINAL RAISK
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YESTERDAY JAN 26, 2023 SPC HAD NO SEVERE STORMS FORECAST FROM DAY 1-8 WITH A CHANCE FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY JAN 27, 2023 THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK DAY 3 SEE THE AREAS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE STORMS BELOW.
NOTE VISIT STORM PREDICITION CENTER DAILY FOR UPDATES.
AREAS WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT:
Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Pasadena, TX...Metairie, LA...
DAY 3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
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DAY 3 SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY 5%
Houston, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Pasadena, TX...Metairie, LA...
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GET THE LATEST UPDATES HERE>> STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SAW0 WW 30 TORNADO AL FL CW 250900Z - 251600Z AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE.. 50NW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/ - 30NE AAF/APALACHICOLA FL/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /22ESE CEW - 35SSW TLH/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. LAT...LON 31458628 30768468 29318468 30018628 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU0.
Watch 30 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 30 VALID 251335Z - 251440Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PFN TO 15 NE MAI. ..GOSS..01/25/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-045-077-251440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GULF LIBERTY $$ GMZ752-755-251440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 30 VALID 251125Z - 251240Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PFN TO 20 W DHN. ..GOSS..01/25/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC061-069-251240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GENEVA HOUSTON $$ FLC005-013-037-045-059-063-077-133-251240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY WASHINGTON $$ GMZ750-752-755-251240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO MEXICO BEACH OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Mesoscale Discussion 0106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Areas affected...Southern GA...Eastern FL Panhandle into northern FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 30... Valid 251536Z - 251700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts will remain possible, particularly along the coast, within the convective line moving across southern GA, the eastern FL Panhandle, and northern FL. Overall limited severe potential should preclude the need for a watch downstream across northern FL. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorm extending from southwest GA southwestward through the central FL Peninsula and off the coast at AAF. Individual cells within the line are moving northeastward at around 35 kt, while the line itself moves eastward at about 16 kt. This motion takes the northern portion of line to the edge of Tornado Watch 30 within the next hour, and the southern portion within the next two hours. VAD wind profile at TLH continue to show strong wind fields, with 50 kt recently sampled at 1 km. However, buoyancy within the air mass remains limited, evidenced by the low storm tops and somewhat anafrontal structure across much of the line. Convective wind gusts have also been muted as the line moves through, with surface observations sampling only modest gusts. Expectation is for this general trend to continue as it progresses eastward over the next few hours, limiting the downstream severe potential. Even so, given the strong low-level flow, a few stronger gusts and a brief tornado could still occur, particularly close to the coast. Overall limited severe potential is expected to preclude the need for a watch downstream across northern FL, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
TODAY THERE ARE NO SEVERE STORMS FORECAST BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITHIN THE SHADED LIGHT GREEN AREAS.
DAY 1 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERTORM STORM OUTLOOK
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
Jacksonville, FL...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Charleston, SC...
DAY 3 SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY
SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY AREAS AT RISK:
5% Jacksonville, FL...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Charleston, SC...
DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK STAY TUNED FOR DAILY UPDATES FROM SPC! REMEMBER LONG RANGE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS AT RISK FOR DAY 5:
15% New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
STAY UP TO DATE WITH SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK BY VISITING STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
EHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY THURSDAY 19, 2023 FOR THE FOLLOWING OHIO COUNTIES:
ENHANCED RISK: Columbus, OH...Springfield, OH...Mansfield, OH...Newark, OH...Huber Heights, OH...
SLIGHT RISK: Cleveland, OH...Akron, OH...Dayton, OH...Parma, OH...Canton, OH...
MARGINAL RISK: Pittsburgh, PA...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Euclid, OH...
Mesoscale Discussion 0077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Areas affected...Parts of Upper MI Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191248Z - 191745Z SUMMARY...Snow rates of 1-2 inches/hour will be possible for a few hours this morning. DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow has been moving quickly northward across central/northern WI early this morning, within a strongly difluent upper-level flow regime to the northeast of a deepening mid/upper-level cyclone that is moving eastward out of the central Plains. This area of snow is moving into Upper Michigan, where colder temperature profiles may support somewhat higher snow ratios compared to farther south. In addition, large-scale ascent will likely become maximized between 15-18Z, as the mid/upper-level cyclone reaches peak intensity, and 1-2 inch/hour snow rates may develop and persist over portions of Upper MI into the late morning hours, before a weakening trend commences by early/mid afternoon. ..Dean.. 01/19/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
THOSE OF YOU IN THE SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK RISK AREA NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO SPC UPDATES AND BE READY TO TAKE SHLETER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
RTW
HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:
SLIGHT RISK: Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, TN...Bossier City, LA...
MARGINAL RISK: Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...
TORNADO PROBABILITY
AREAS AT RISK FOR TORNADO:
5% Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...
2% Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...
HAIL PROBABILITY
AREAS AT RISK FOR HAIL:
5% Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
AREAS AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS:
15% Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, TN...Bossier City, LA...
5% Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...
A SLIGHT RISK ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR LATEST SPC UPDATES CLICK (HERE)!
HERE ARE THE FOLOWING AREAS THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER HAS UNDER THIS RISK:
SLIGHT: Memphis, TN...Jackson, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Jackson, TN...Pine Bluff, AR...
MARGINAL: Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...
TORNADO PROBABILITY
HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THIS PROBABILITY RISK:
5% Memphis, TN...Jackson, TN...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...
2% Nashville, TN...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Evansville, IN...
PROBABILITY OF HAIL
HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THIS PROBABILITY RISK:
5% Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
HERE ARE THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THIS PROBABILITY RISK:
15% Memphis, TN...Jackson, MS...Lake Charles, LA...Jackson, TN...Pine Bluff, AR...
5% Houston, TX...Nashville, TN...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...
A RARE STORM SYSTEM WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION FORMED FROM A COLD CORE WINTER STORM OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 0% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO THE U.S. IS WINTRY CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST, MIXED SNOW AND ICE. YOU CAN'T RULE OUT THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A WARM CORE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
RTW
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
