..NEXT 3 DAYS SEVERE STORM ON THE INCREASE.. ..AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK..

NEXT THREE DAYS CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASING TO A SLIGHT RISK.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.  

REMEMBER TO VISIT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR LATEST UPDATES TO SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND AREAS AT RISK.

DAY 1 THE FOLLOWING AREAS HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY:

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: :

5% PROBABILITY: Jacksonville, FL...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Valdosta, GA...

DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS::

5% PROBABILITY: Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Valdosta, GA...Hinesville, GA...

DAY 2 THE FOLLOWING AREAS HAVE A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...North Little Rock, AR...

MARGINAL RISK: Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Fayetteville, AR...

DAY 2 TORNADO PROBABILITY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

5% PROBABILITY: Ada, OK...

2% PROBABILITY; Sherman, TX...Texarkana, TX...Texarkana, AR...Shawnee, OK...Paris, TX...

DAY 2 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

5% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Norman, OK...

DAY 2 HAIL PROBABILITY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

15% PROBABILITY: Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...North Little Rock, AR...

5% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Fayetteville, AR...

DAY 3 THE FOLLOWING AREAS HAVE A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tuscaloosa, AL...

MARGINAL RISK: New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...

DAY 3 PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS:

15% PROBABILITY: Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tuscaloosa, AL...

5% PROBABILITY: New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...

CALIFORNIA FLOODING RAINS ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOSPHEIRC RIVER RETURNS WITH STORMS THAT WILL MOVE INLAND AND TRACK EAST.

DAYS 1-5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK:

..A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY..

 

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY PER THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER.  

THESE ARE THE LATEST CITIES AT RISK FOR STORMS TODAY:

MARGINAL RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

HAIL PROBABILITY AND CITIES AT RISK:

5% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 AM EST Thu Mar 09 2023

Areas affected...north Texas, southern Oklahoma, southwestern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090944Z - 091544Z

Summary...A persistent regime for locally training convection
could continue to produce spots of 2+ inch/hr rainfall rates,
leading to isolated/sparse flash flooding.

Discussion...A cluster of west-to-east moving thunderstorm
activity continues generally along the Red River Valley in north
Texas and southern Oklahoma.  The storms are being supported by
convergence on the nose of 30-40 kt southerly 850mb flow, which
was focused along that same general west-to-east axis for
convection.  Storms are mostly elevated, but are also benefitting
from appreciable lapse rates and shear for appreciable updraft
intensity and longevity.  PW values around 1.3-1.4 inches was also
supporting efficient rainfall.  Though the convective coverage of
stronger cells was generally sparse, one instance of convective
training resulted in a brief period of 2-3 inch/hr rainfall rates
(MRMS-estimated) near Sherman, with reports of flooded roadways
due to the rainfall.

The overall coverage of flash flooding is not expected to be high
at all this morning, although one or two more instances could
occur in this regime as storms continue to backbuild amid low- to
mid-level convergence just above the boundary layer.  Eventually
this axis of convection will shift northeastward in tandem with
low-level jet and convergence axis, with cells becoming somewhat
more common in southern/southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern
Arkansas (per observational trends and latest guidance).  FFGs in
these areas are low (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) and soils moist from
recent rainfall, all suggesting a continued, yet isolated flash
flood threat through 16Z or so.

Cook

..ANOTHER DAY OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND SOME STORMS ARE SPREADING EAST OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI..

 

HERE ARE AREAS THAT COULD SEE SEVERE STORM DEVELOMENT TODAY:

MARGINAL RISK: Fort Worth, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...Carrollton, TX...

STAY UP WITH THE LATEST FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER!

HERE ARE CITIES WITH A 5% RISK OF DAMAGING HAIL:

5% RISK: Fort Worth, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...Carrollton, TX...

..DAY 1 A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY..

 

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING CITIES:

MARGINAL RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...

THERE IS A 5% PROBABILITY FOR HAIL TODAY IN THE FOLLOWING CITIES:

5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...

..ANOTHER SEVERE STORM DAY.. ..STAY ALERT AND HEED THE WARNINGS..

 

ANOTHER SEVERE STORM DAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST.  TODAY THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR ALABAMA, GEORGIA, TENNESSEE,  AND KENTUCKY RISK.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT SO LOOK BELOW AT SPC MAPS FOR THE BLACK HATCHED LINE IN THE RISK AREA POLYGONS. FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN TODAY.  HEAVY SNOW ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM.

REMEMBER TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT CHARGE YOUR PHONE AND BE READY.

STAY UP TO DATE WITH STORM PREDICTION CENTER! 

RTW

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE IN THE RISK ZONE!

ENHANCED RISK: Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...

SLIGHT RISK: Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...

MARGINAL RISK: Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE IN THE TORNADO PROBABILITY RISK ZONE!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Nashville, TN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Murfreesboro, TN...Bowling Green, KY...Franklin, TN...

10% PROBABILITY: Nashville, TN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Murfreesboro, TN...Bowling Green, KY...Franklin, TN...

5% PROBABILITY: Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...

2% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Greensboro, NC...Birmingham, AL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE IN THE DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY RISK ZONE!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Knoxville, TN...

30% PROBABILITY: Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Knoxville, TN...Huntsville, AL...

15% PROBABILITY: Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...

5% PROBABILITY: Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE IN THE DAMAGING HAIL PROBABILITY RISK ZONE!

5% PROBABILITY: Nashville, TN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...Murfreesboro, TN...

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   SEL0

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 60
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   625 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Alabama
     Far southeast Illinois
     Western into central Kentucky
     Northeast Mississippi
     Western into Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until
     100 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A fast moving line of storms will intensify and track
   northeast this morning into early afternoon. Damaging gusts and a
   few tornadoes will be the primary hazards with these storms.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Owensboro KY
   to 40 miles south southeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 59...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
   storm motion vector 22050.

   ...Leitman/Edwards

..TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE WITH LONG TRACKING LARGE TORNADO AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS..

 

STAY ON HIGH ALERT TODAY WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO OUTBREAK LOOMING.  LARGE TORNADO POSSIBLE TODAY AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS.  PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  

PLEASE NOTE THAT BY THE TIME I POSTED THIS SOME OF THIS INFORMATION HAVE BEEN UPDATED SO MONITOR UPDATES FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER!

RTW

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021323Z - 021600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, potentially
   supercells capable of producing sizable hail, appears possible as
   early as 9-11 AM.  It is not certain a severe weather watch will be
   needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture return is ongoing on southerly
   low-level flow across much of the southern Great Plains.  This
   includes areas as far north as southeastern Oklahoma, above a
   shallow near-surface stable layer, to the cool side of a surface
   frontal zone.  Based on forecast soundings (and the 12Z sounding
   from Norman), this may be contributing to CAPE on the order of
   1000-2000 J/kg, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with
   a plume of elevated mixed-layer air.

   Despite inhibition associated with the elevated mixed layer,
   deepening convective development is already evident in satellite
   imagery near and west through north of the McAlester vicinity. 
   Various model guidance, including the Rapid Refresh and High
   Resolution Ensemble output, suggest that forcing for ascent, likely
   driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection beneath difluent
   upper flow, may support the initiation of increasing thunderstorm
   development as early as 15-17Z.

   With forecast hodographs within the elevated potential inflow layer
   forecast to enlarge somewhat, and become clockwise curved, in the
   presence of strong cloud-bearing layer shear, the environment
   appears conducive to supercells capable of producing large hail.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/02/2023

DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MODERATE, ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

MODERATE RISK: Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...

ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Abilene, TX...Beaumont, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: San Antonio, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...Springfield, MO...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS FOR TORNADO EF-2 OR HIGHER, SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES ON MAP!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...

10% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Fort Smith, AR...College Station, TX...The Woodlands, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS FOR DAMAGING WINDS, SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES ON MAP!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

45% PROBABILITY: Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Round Rock, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Huntsville, AL...Springfield, MO...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE POSSIBLE RISK AREAS FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL, SO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS AREAS IN THE BLACK HATCHED LINES ON MAP!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Huntsville, AL...

..APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM RAMPING UP FOR LONG TRACKING TORNADOS AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL ON THURSDAY..

 

THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IS GETTING STRONGER AND THE THREAT FOR LONG TRACKING DAMAGING WEDGE TORNADO EF-2 OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THE HIGHEST THREAT ON THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT TORNADO, DAMAGING WINDS 2.00 INCH HAIL ON THURSDAY.  

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY AND THURSDAY AND FOR FOLKS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY.

RTW

DAY 1 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, TORNADO,  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, SO STAY ALERT!

ENHANCED RISK: Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...

SLIGHT RISK: Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...

UPDATED RISK AREAS AND OUTLOOK...1630Z 03-01-2023

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY!

DAY 1 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL!  DON'T DROP YOUR GUARD REMEMBER TOO ALWAYS STAY ALERT!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Bartlett, TN...

10% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Bartlett, TN...

5% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Huntsville, AL...Murfreesboro, TN...Jackson, TN...

2% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Arlington, TX...

DAY 1 PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS:

DAY 1 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  DON'T DROP YOUR GUARD AND REMEMBER TOO ALWAYS STAY ALERT!

30% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...

15% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...

DAY 1 PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

DAY 1 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL IN THE BLACK HATCH LINE AREA.  DON'T DROP YOUR GUARD AND REMEMBER TOO ALWAYS STAY ALERT!

Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...

Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...Hot Springs, AR...

Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Birmingham, AL...

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER ON THURSDAY!

DAY 2 A DAY MODERATE, ENHANCED RISK SO BE ON HIGH ALERT FOR LONG TRACKING EF-2 OR HIGHER TORNADO, LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  

I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW BAD TOMORROW COULD BE WITH NOCTURNAL TORNADOES.  PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FROM THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER UPDATES AND LOCAL WEATHER MEDIA.  PREPARE TO TAKE SHELTER WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREAS!

RTW

DAY 2 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK, AND REMEMBER THESE AREAS COULD BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT UPDATE FOR SPC!

MODERATE RISK: Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...

ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...New Orleans, LA...Tulsa, OK...Corpus Christi, TX...

DAY 2 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK LARGE TORNADO, AND REMEMBER THESE AREAS COULD BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT UPDATE FOR SPC!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE (HATCHED BLACK LINE) AREAS ARE AT HIGHEST RISK FOR LONG TRACKING EF-2 OR HIGHER TORNADO:

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Texarkana, TX...

10% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Jackson, MS...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Fort Smith, AR...College Station, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...

DAY 2 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS, AND REMEMBER THESE AREAS COULD BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT UPDATE FOR SPC!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE (HATCHED BLACK LINE) AREAS ARE AT HIGHEST RISK DAMAGING WINDS:

EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT AFFECTED BY A TORNADO THESE STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS COULD CAUSE SERIOUS DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES DOWNING POWER LINES, SO STAY ALAERT AND STAY SAFE!!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

45% PROBABILITY: Garland, TX...Shreveport, LA...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...Killeen, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...New Orleans, LA...Tulsa, OK...

DAY 2 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL, AND REMEMBER THESE RISK AREAS COULD BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT UPDATE FOR SPC!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE (HATCHED BLACK LINE) AREAS ARE AT HIGHEST RISK DAMAGING HAIL:

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Fort Smith, AR...North Little Rock, AR...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...

DAY 3 THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS!

SLIGHT RISK: Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Greensboro, NC...

MARGINAL RISK: Raleigh, NC...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Durham, NC...Mobile, AL...

DAY 3 THE FOLLOWING PROBABILITY AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS!

15% PROBABILITY: Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Greensboro, NC...

5% PROBABILITY: Raleigh, NC...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Durham, NC...Mobile, AL...