UPDATE 12:52 PM EDT
Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023
Areas affected...portions of southwest into central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161527Z - 161730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase from
southwest into central OK over the next 1-2 hours. Hail will be the
main hazard with initial thunderstorms into early afternoon. A watch
may be needed in the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...Areas of deeper convective cells are developing within
broader area of showers across western OK late this morning ahead of
a fast, southeastward-advancing surface cold front. An elevated
mixed-layer noted in 12z regional RAOBs may result in initial
thunderstorm activity remaining elevated. Also, as the cold front
quickly progresses southeast, initial storms late this morning into
midday may quickly become undercut by the front. Forecast RAP/NAM
soundings indicate some erosion of steeper midlevel lapse rates is
occurring as early showers move across central OK. However, midlevel
lapse rates, coupled with favorable shear profiles and modest
instability, should support a few organized cells/clusters capable
of producing hail.
There is some uncertainty in intensity of initial storms in a narrow
corridor (generally along the I-44/I-40 corridor) in central OK the
next few hours. However, a greater severe threat, including
potential for a few tornadoes, is expected just south and east
across south-central/southeast OK and north TX, where more favorable
surface-based convection is expected by mid-afternoon. While the
tornado threat may be lower across the narrow corridor of mainly
large hail potential across central OK, a watch may be needed in the
next hour or so.
..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.. ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK WITH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, TORNADO, DAMAGING HAIL 2.00 INCHES OR HIGHER AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES:
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:
ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
SLIGHT RISK: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Pasadena, TX...
MARGINAL RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...
STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES:
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADOES:
10% PROBABILITY: Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Mesquite, TX...Richardson, TX...Allen, TX...
5% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Shreveport, LA...Irving, TX...
2% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES:
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL 2.00 INCHES OR HIGHER!
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...
STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES:
THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS!
30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...
15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Shreveport, LA...
5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-2
