..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AND RAINFALL OUTLOOK..

 

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK ON DAY THREE AND A SLIGHT RISKON DAY FOUR. DAYS 1-2 HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

DAYS 1-4 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SOME COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND LIGHTNING.

DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK 

DAYS 2 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED, HOWEVER, SOME COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND LIGHTNING.

DAYS 3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK A MARGINAL RISK FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SOME COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND LIGHTNING.  THERE IS 5% PROBABILITY THAT SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

AREAS AT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS:

MARGINAL RISK: Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...

DAY 3 PROBABILITY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT 5%

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK:

DAY 1-7 RAINFALL OUTLOOK:

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS

FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS:

..TODAYS SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK MONDAY APRIL 10, 2023..

 

TODAYS SEVERE OUTLOOK PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS HAVE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS.

MARINAL RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS HAVE A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS HAVE A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING HAIL.

5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK PER WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

DAYS 1-4

DAYS 1-3 NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS (ANIMATED)

FRONT ANALYSIS MAPS

TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, IOWA, THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA IS IN STORE FOR MORE OF RAIN IN THE COMING DAYS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

..MODELS STILL HINTING OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF..

MODELS STILL HINTING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE GULF STATES AND FLORIDA.  

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A LOW IN THE GULF AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW LOW TRACKING OVER FLORIDA.  I AM NOT CONCERNED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW BUT I AM WATCHING.

AS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR DAY 1 AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR ALABAMA, GEORGIA, NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINA'S.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL SEE ENHANCED RAIN AND STORM CHANCE DURING THE COMING DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  IT WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT, BUT THE CHANCES FOR GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.

SO FAR MODELS ARE NOT HINTING A STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

RTW

EURO MODEL

COLOR LEGEND ON THE RIGHT SHOW RAIN IN INCHES

GFS MODEL

THIS MODEL HINTS AT STRONG STORMS MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

48 HOUR DAY 4-5 RAINFALL PROBABILITIES PLENTY OF RAIN OVER THE GULF AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER THIS THAT REGION.

48 HOUR DAY 6-7 

YOU CAN SEE FLORIDA GETTING THERE FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING WEEK.

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 4 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

FRONT ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA WHERE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR.

NATIONAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

ENSEMBLE MODELS

..WATCHING THE GULF AND OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK..

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OR EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST.  

SOME MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A PORTION OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT, IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT SINCE WATER TEMPS ARE NICE AND WARM.

GFS SUGGEST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE LOWS.  

I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME ITS NOTHING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT.

RTW

EURO MODEL

GFS MODEL

GEM (CMC) CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL

THE DARKER SHADES OF YELLOW TO ORANGE STRONGER LOWS

GEFS (GFS) ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL

7 DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK

THE INCHES LEGEND IS ON THE LEFT.

DAYS 1-4 RAINFALL OUTLOOK

DAY 1-3 NATIONAL FORECAST

DAYS 1-7 COLD FRONT FORECAST SHOWS FRONT PROGRESSION, RAINFALL, THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITY.

GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE TRACKS.

THESE ARE POSSIBLE POSITIONS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT

EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOW ONE LOW TRACK OVER NORTH FLORIDA