..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MAY 18, 2023..

 

THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET, NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  THE ONLY THINGS I SEE IS THE EURO MODELS SUGGESTING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK LOW COMING OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CUBA, AND TRACKS NORTH OVER FLORIDA.

REMEMBER FORECAST ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND NO WORRIES.  I WILL KEEP YOU POSTED THROUGHOUT THIS HURRICANE SEASON.

WE STILL HAVE THAT TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT IS HAS PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVES AXIS.  I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

RTW

SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP COURTESY OF NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

EURO ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS.  AND POSSIBLE LOW NEAR FLORIDA ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE AND ALSO IN THE GULF.  NO WORRIES!

THE GFS AS ALWAYS SHOWING MORE LOWS THAN THE EURO.  REMEMBER THESE ARE POSSIBILITY OF WHERE A LOW CAN DEVELOP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AND ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE. WE LOOK FOR PERSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUN.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND NO WORRIES AT THIS TIME.

EURO SHOWS THE WEAK LOW FROM THE EAST BAHAMAS AND A WEAK LOW OUT OF CUBA AND TRACKS NORTH OVER FLORIDA.  I WILL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY!  NO WORRIES!

THE CANADIAN MODEL WEAK LOW OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC OFF THE EAST COAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND TRACKS INLAND.  ONCE AGAIN WE MONITOR AND NO WORRIES AT THIS TIME!

GFS ALSO SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER FLORIDA BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME!

• THIS MORNING CLOUD TEMPERATURE AND LIGHTNING MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TRACKING EAST AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
• SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LIGHTNING EAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
• MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND LIGHTNING TRACKING EAST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.  

REMEMBER SINCE SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOWS OR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS I MENTION WE WILL MONITOR THEM CLOSELY AS A PRECUATION BUT NOTING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME.  THE ONES OVER LAND CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 17, 2023..

 

TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 18 WEST HAS NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALL IS LOOKING QUIET IN THE TROPICS FOR NOW.

RTW

SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP COURTESY OF NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

GFS AS ALWAYS SHOWING MANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBILITIES.

THE EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS LOW DEVELOPENT  NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS 

EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, FLORIDA AND IN THE EASTERN GULF WEST OF FLORIDA.  REMEMBER THESE ARE MODEL RUN AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  NO WORRIES!

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 16, 2023..

 

GOOD MORNING WE HAVE A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NOT SHOWING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  

ELSEWHERE THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS I BEEN WATCHING ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS LOW WAS PRODCUING STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS YESTERDAY. 

THE CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW WAS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ENHANCING RAIN AND STORMS OVER INTERIOR MIAMI DADE.  THIS LOW SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST SO THE INFLUENCE LOW HAD OVER US HAS LESSEN.

THREE MODELS ARE  SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NORTH THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW.

ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS SOME LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER,  AS WE WELL KNOW FORECAST ARE CONSTANTLY CHANGING RUN TO RUN.  SO WE WILL MONITOR AND BE STORMS READY!  

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SURFACE MAP

GFS ENSEMBLE AS ALWAYS OVER DOING IT.

EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS POSSIBLE BAHAMA LOW TRACKING NORTH.

THOSE ROUND BLOBS YOU SEE IN ORNAGE OR RED COLORS REPRESENTS LOW PRESSURE AND THE BLUE REPRESENT HIGH PRESSURE.

NORTH ATLANTIC SATELLITE (CLOUD TEMP/LIGHTNING)

MID TO UPPER LOW STILL FIRING UP STORMS IN A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT, AS POSSIBLE MORE WAVES DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC.

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK STARTS TODAY MAY 15, 2023 THROUGH NOV 30, 2023..

 

GOOD MORNING TODAY IS THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2023 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND ALSO THE START TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH START MAY 15 THROUGH NOV 30.  

I BEGIN TRACKING THE TROPICS TODAY AS WELL AND WILL BE PUBLISHING DAILY UPDATES HERE.  ANY SUSPICIOUS AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE POSTED HERE DAILY.

RTW.

• THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, I AM MONITORING,  A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM IN THE NEAR FUTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM THIS SURFACE TROUGH, BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS IS TO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SURFACE MAP

• NO TROPICAL WAVES INSITE AT THIS TIME.

EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL NOT SHOWING MUCH LO DEVELOPMENT IN THIS RUN.

GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.

THE DARKER ORANGE COLORS ARE POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURES IN THESE ENSEMBLE MODELS.  YELLOW IS WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

AFRICAN SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING, POSSIBLE WAVES ABOUT TO MOVE OF THE COAST.  TO EARLY FOR ATLANTIC DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH WATERS ARE NICE AN WARM.  AS THESE WAVES TRACK INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EAST PACIFIC AT TIME THEY CAN BECOME  A PROBLEM.  

AREAS TO MONITOR IN MAY AND JUNE ARE THE THE BAHAMAS, OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTHWARD, THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

NORTH ATLANTIC SATELLITE CLOUD TEMPS AND LIGHTNING

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING.

..EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MAY 12, 2023..

 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0271

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...southwestern NE into extreme northwestern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121146Z - 121745Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue for extreme
northwestern KS into southwestern NE over the next 3-6 hours with
peak rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr and additional totals up to
2 or 3 inches through 18Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES East water vapor imagery continued to show a
slow moving closed mid-level low over the western NE/KS border at
11Z, with slow movement toward the NNE. Local radar imagery from
KGLD showed a narrow band of thunderstorms extending from Decatur
County, KS into southwestern NE, with a small
deformation/convergence axis of stratiform rainfall over Dundy,
Chase and Perkins counties in western NE. Within the convective
band, KGLD 1-hr rainfall estimates have been about 1 to 1.5 inches
since about 09Z but over a fairly localized region of the High
Plains. Farther west within the stratiform region, rain rates have
peaked generally in the 0.5 to 1.0 in/hr range.

Slow movement of the mid-level low and continued southerly to
easterly flow just ahead of the low will allow for locally heavy
rain to continue over the next few hours, with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE along the far eastern portion of the MPD threat area
supporting rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr at times with training
and slow moving convection. Additional peak storm totals up to 2
or 3 inches will be possible through 18Z, falling on top of a
region of the Great Plains that has seen 4-8 inches of rain over
the past 72 hours. Localized flash flooding will remain possible
given the saturated to nearly saturated conditions on the ground.
Farther north, the Sand Hills region of NE contains higher FFG and
more permeable soil types, where the flash flood threat is
expected to be lower and is therefore not included in this MPD.

Otto

DAYS 1-5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

SURFACE FRONTS AND SEA-LEVEL PRESSURES COURTESY OF WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER

RAINFALL TOTALS EXPRECT OVER TEXAS FROM TODAY FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY RAIN BY PERCENT.

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY MAY 12, 2023..

 

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY.

VISIT STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

ENHANCED RISK: Omaha, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Fremont, NE...

SLIGHT RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...

MARGINAL RISK: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Garland, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO:

5% PROBABILITY: Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...

2% PROBABILITY: Tulsa, OK...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS:

15% PROBABILITY:  Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...

5% PROBABILITY:  San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Garland, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Omaha, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Fremont, NE...

30% PROBABILITY: Omaha, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...Fremont, NE...

15% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...

5% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Garland, TX...