..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 12, 2023..

 

There is a strong wave off the African coast that I am monitoring closely.  Where the wave is presently located, upper level conditions are favorable for some formation to occur.  I will monitor in in the coming days.

The wave passing over the Caribbean is still producing some showers and storms moving over Puerto Rico.  Development of this wave is not expected as it is moving toward an unfavorable upper level environment.

Storm Investigation 94L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 500 miles east-northeast 
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms well to the south of its center.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some 
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression 
or storm could form during the next few days while the system moves 
generally eastward.  By the weekend, the low should turn northward 
bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially limiting 
additional development.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly/Berg

435 
AXNT20 KNHC 121552
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1805 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, 
currently extending along 22W from 20N to 07N. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N between 18W and 
23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 15N to 
01N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 37W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along a line from 
21N62W to 08N66W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed mainly west of the wave from 14N to 18N 
between 63W and 73W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85/86W, south of 
21N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W 
to 10N29W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 10N29W to 10N37W 
and from 08N43W to 07N53W. In addition to the convection 
described in the tropical wave section, scattered weak 
convection is observed along the western segment of the ITCZ 
from 06N to 09N between 44W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche 
supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the 
southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 
the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and 
slight seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula 
each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain 
moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan 
peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and 
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical 
wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate 
to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to 
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are funneling 
through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the 
central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft 
in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern 
Caribbean will move westward to the central Caribbean through 
Thu and the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave 
will move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the southeast 
Caribbean Sat and into the south-central Caribbean Sun. The 
passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong 
winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the NW Atlantic from 31N70W to 
28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed along the frontal 
boundary. North of the front, winds are gentle from the W-NW. 
South of the front, winds are moderate from the SW. Seas are 
generally 3-5 ft on either side. Invest area AL94 is located 
near 34N52W, with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone 
in the next 48 hours. While this system is north of the 
discussion area, fresh to strong S winds and weak convection are 
observed north of 27N between 48W and 51W. Otherwise across the 
western and central basin, the subtropical ridge extends 
westward along 25/26N. Winds are gentle near the ridge axis. 
North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the west. 
South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the east. 
Seas are 4-5 ft along the ridge axis, and 5-7 ft on either side. 
In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 
ft seas. Similar conditions extend into the central Atlantic 
south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist 
northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. A weak cold front 
extending from 31N69W to 28N79W will stall between NE Florida 
and Bermuda late today and dissipate tonight into Thu morning. 
Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave will move 
westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri. Expect 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N both 
ahead of and following the tropical wave. 

$$ 
Flynn

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 11, 2023..

 

MONITORING WAVES BUT AT THIS TIME THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS A CHANCE FOR SUB-TROPICAL TO TROPICAL FORMATION IS A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  I WILL POST BELOW NHC MAP AND TEXT DISCUSSION.

A WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF THE WAVES AXIS AND IT EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS WAVE HAS NO CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVL WIND SHEAR.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for 
gradual development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical 
depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the system moves 
generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward 
bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting additional 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

024 
AXNT20 KNHC 111019
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from 05N 
to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A small cluster of
moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ near
10N24W. 

An active and well defined tropical wave is approaching the Lesser
Antilles. Its axis extends from 19N54W to near the Suriname/Guyana
border. This wave is moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen mainly ahead of the
wave axis from 14N to 18N between 51W and 61W. Resent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong easterly winds on either side of 
the wave, mainly N of 15N. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are within these 
winds. The wave is located SE of an upper-level trough that extends
across the Leeward Islands into the eastern Caribbean to near
15N70W. This is likely enhancing the convective activity 
associated to the wave that is already affecting the Lesser 
Antilles, mainly S of Guadeloupe.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 81W, 
south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave 
extends from central Cuba to western Panama. Scattered moderate 
convection is present near the northern portion of the wave axis
affecting parts of central Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A cluster
of moderate to strong convection is over eastern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast 
of Mauritania near 19N16W and extends SW to near to 11N23W. The 
ITCZ begins at 10N25W and continues to 06N40W and northwestward 
to 10N55W. Aside from convection that is associated to tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted on both side of the
ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 32W and 40W. A cluster of moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 08N
to 11.5N E of 16W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the northern Gulf E of
92W, and over N florida ahead of an upper-level trough that
extends over the SE of United States. Similar convective activity
is also observed near the N coast of western Cuba. The latter is
the result of an upper-level low spinning over the NW Caribbean. 
Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorm is noted in 
the Bay of Campeche is association with a surface trough. The 
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of the
western periphery of the broad subtropical ridge positioned over 
the central Atlantic. This pattern is suppressing the development 
of deep convection, especially in the southeastern part of the 
Gulf, where a batch of dry Saharan dust is noted. Recent
scatterometer data clearly show the wind shift associated with the
trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening
hours. Moderate to fresh winds are associated with this trough. 
Elsewhere across the Gulf waters, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow is seen. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft across the western 
Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft across the eastern Gulf. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate
to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight seas will prevail.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the 1025 mb high pressure located
over the central Atlantic near 27N42W and lower pressure in NW 
South America sustain fresh to strong winds over the central 
Caribbean, with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. This was confirmed by 
recent satellite derived wind data. These winds also support seas
of 8 to 11 ft based on altimeter data, with the highest seas near
the coast of Colombia. An area of fresh to locally strong trade 
winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft, is noted just S of Puerto Rico to 
about 15N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh winds and seas in
the 3 to 5 ft range prevail, except in the lee of Cuba where 
light and variable winds are noted with seas of 1 to 3 ft. 

An upper-level low over the NW caribbean combined with a tropical
wave along 81W is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms 
over parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands and regional waters. The
western extent of an upper-level trough supports a band of 
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean roughly 
along 15N and E of 73W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue
over the central Caribbean through the weekend. Strong to near gale
force winds are likely off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
mainly at night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail
the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trade 
winds and moderate seas will prevail over the E Caribbean and the 
tropical Atlantic waters through Sat night. A tropical wave, 
currently located along 56W, will bring an increase in winds and 
seas across the waters just E of the Leeward Islands today, and 
over the NE Caribbean tonight into on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage ahead of the wave axis by Wed
night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic forecast region is dominated by a ridge anchored by a
1025 mb high pressure located near 27N42W. Another high pressure  
center of 1022 mb is located mid-way between the Azores and the
Madeira Islands. Convection is limited across the basin. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal system off the 
eastern United States is sustaining moderate to fresh southwest 
winds north of 28N and west of 55W. Moderate to locally fresh E 
trade winds are noted south of 22N and west of 55W. Seas in the 
waters described are 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere W of 55W, light to 
gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS reveals that 
another outbreak of Saharan dust is occurring off the coast of 
Africa and will be propagating westward over the next several 
days. African dust reaches Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Moderate 
to strong northerly winds are present between the Canary Islands,
and near the coast of Mauritania, particularly from 19N to 21N E 
of 22W where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Moderate to fresh 
winds are noted elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic with seas 
of 5 to 8 ft while mainly light to gentle winds are occurring 
along the ridge axis with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will remain in place across the 
forecast waters while weakening some by Wed as a developing low 
pressure moves SE and crosses near the NE waters. Fresh W to NW 
winds and seas to 8 ft, in association with the low, are expected 
to impact the NE waters tonight into Wed. The northern end of a 
tropical wave is forecast to affect the waters north of the 
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico on Wed, and north of Hispaniola, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage by Wed night. In 
addition, an area of fresh to locally strong E winds are expected 
off Hispaniola over the next several days. Light to gentle winds 
will persist along the ridge axis. 

Looking ahead, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
is currently located a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of 
Bermuda. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this 
area in the next day or so, and environmental conditions are then 
forecast to be marginally conducive for further development. A 
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the latter 
part of this week as the system moves generally eastward. By the 
weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over 
cooler waters, likely limiting additional development. Refer 
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 10, 2023..

 

Strong storms off the coast of Africa along the monsoon trough between 30 and 20 degrees west and south of the 10 latitude line.  this could be associated with a tropical wave but its not yet seems on the surface analysis map.

Another wave nearing 50 degrees west latitude has strong to moderate showers and storms west of the waves axis.  There are no signs of organization at this time.  if these showers and storms hold together as it passes over the Lesser Antilles it will bring squally showers and storms to the islands.

Another wave passing over Puerto Rico is lacking storm activity.

A tropical wave passing over Jamaica, has some storms with lightning north of the island.

NHC is monitoring the north central Atlantic for development in the near future. This system if it develops would be a sub-tropical or tropical in nature, and will not be a threat to the eastern Sea board. See below NHC map and discussion text.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so several 
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. This system is 
expected to interact with an upper-level trough, and could acquire 
some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the middle to 
latter part of this week while it moves generally eastward. By the 
weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over 
cooler waters, likely limiting additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Ensemble models are still showing possible development but once again its in the long range and there will could be errors in the forecast.  So we continue to monitor!

RTW

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 8, 2023..

 A strong wave over the eastern Caribbean is producing strong storms over The the Lesser Antilles northern Venezuela and Puerto Rico.  This wave is being enhanced by an upper level low northeast of  northern Leeward and another over the central Caribbean near Jamaica and Cuba.

RTW

226 
AXNT20 KNHC 082326
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W/32W
from 06N to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are west to 40W and from 10N to 14N 
between 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W/56W from
from 09N to 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 14N between the wave and
60W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends from 21N64W to 15N66W
and to inland Venezuela to 06N67W. It is moving westward around 
16 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis to
the Leeward Islands, with the exception of numerous showers and 
thunderstorms that are occurring from 17N to 20N between 64W-67W.
This includes Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Expect for this 
activity to linger into Sun morning as moisture remains at quite
high levels in the eastern Caribbean. This activity may be
attendant by strong gusty winds. An ASCAT data pass from this 
afternoon revealed moderate to strong east winds northeast of the
Leeward Islands from 16N to 19N between 56W-59W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 10N to 15N 
between 60W-65W.

A tropical wave is just along the coasts of Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula. It reaches southward to the eastern Pacific 
near 05N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection over the interior portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and
the western section of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
18N16W to 13N24W and to 10N34W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
08N40W and to near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 34W-38W, and also N of the 
ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 13N34W to 11N39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge axis that extends from the Atlantic 
across the Straits of Florida has changed little. Its associated
gradient is allowing for generally gentle to locally moderate 
anticyclonic flow over the basin. Seas are in the range of 
2-4 ft seas, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft in the 
central, west-central and eastern Bay of Campeche areas. 
Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by an upper-level trough,
is roughly within 30 nm of a line extends from south-central 
Florida westward to 26N85W and northwest to 27N89W. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are over the north-central waters. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Florida 
panhandle as well as over northern and central Florida. Similar 
activity approaching the coast is over Alabama and in the 
interior sections of Mississippi, Louisiana and of NE Texas. 

For the forecast, the anticyclonic flow pattern attributed to
the weak high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf region while
a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening 
and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh 
winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during 
the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with active weather is in the eastern Caribbean.
Another tropical wave is just along the coasts of Belize and 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for
information on these features and associated convection.

Fresh trades are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the 
coast of Colombia, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate 
trades prevail in the remainder of the basin, with 3-6 ft seas.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 14N to 21N between 
77W-84W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central
and western sections of Jamaica. Similar activity is over western
Cuba.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the E Caribbean will 
support moderate to fresh winds in this region through Sun 
morning. The wave will move to the central basin Sun morning, 
increasing the areal coverage of fresh to strong winds in the 
area through Tue. The wave is forecast to reach the southwestern
Caribbean waters late Tue. A new tropical wave will reach the 
Lesser Antilles Tue night into Wed morning, increasing the winds 
to fresh speeds across the E Caribbean through Wed night. 
Otherwise, fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will reach
strong speed every night through Tue night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough that extends from the eastern U.S. to 
along the Florida coast is helping to sustain unsettled weather 
in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
over the waters northwest of a line from 31N69W to 27N75W and to 
Miami, Florida. A Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is 
identified on water vapor imagery to be near 24N55W. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 26N to 31N between
49W-69W. An area of overcast multilayer clouds is northeast 
through southwest of this feature from 14N to 20N between 
55W-64W, and from 20N to 29N between 49W and 55W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible underneath these 
area of cloudiness.

Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge centered near the Azores 
continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic, as does a broad area
of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in the deep tropics 
south of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist south of 20N
along with seas of 6-8 ft, and gentle to locally moderate trades
persist north of 20N with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging will continue 
across the southwest N Atlantic waters through late Tue when the
ridge will weaken as an area of low pressure off the coast of 
the Carolinas lift NE to the mid-Atlantic adjacent waters. The 
pressure gradient between these two features will maintain 
moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 27N, and moderate to 
fresh trade winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong 
speeds north of Hispaniola. Light winds are forecast elsewhere 
along the ridge. 

$$
Aguirre

Ensemble continue to show development so I continue to monitor.  

Could see some development in the north Atlantic in the coming weeks.

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 7, 2023..

 

All remains quiet for now. There are four tropical waves tracking across the Atlantic and Caribbean.  

The first wave is near the African coast and has some showers and storms being enhanced by the African Monsoon trough running through this area. There are no signs of tropical development at this time.

The Central Atlantic wave is moving through Sahara Dry air and dust and it is completely void of thunderstorms.

A wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is being enhanced by an upper level low to the north of the wave.  Strong to moderate showers and storms are along this waves axis and east of the lesser Antilles at this time. 

Another wave approaching Nicaragua, Honduras is is enhancing storms 

from Costa Rica northward to Northeast Nicaragua.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070831
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 
19N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 25W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 19N
southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is 
isolated and weak.

The axis of a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is near 58W
from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N 
between 53W and 59W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 74W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N17W 
to 08N31W. The ITCZ continues from 08N31W to 05N39W. It resumes
from 05N46W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 10N between 32W and 35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W. A surface trough
is over the SW Gulf just off the western coast of the Yucatan
peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and the trough as well as lower pressure over Mexico is 
supporting moderate SE to S winds in the SW and W Gulf. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Seas are in
the 2-3 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and 
west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a diurnal trough 
develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over the 
eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight 
seas elsewhere. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge N of the area
and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the central 
Caribbean will gradually diminish today. Fresh to strong trades 
over the central Caribbean will develop again Sun night. Fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight 
and Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters N of 20N, with
the exception of a weak 1017 mb low pressure near 27N58W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the waters S of 22N as well as W
of 70W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 22N and W of 35W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 22N and E of 35W. Seas are in
the 7-9 ft range from 15N to 24N and E of 31W. Seas of 4-7 ft are
elsewhere S of 21N, and 3-5 ft N of 21N.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a 
weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of the
area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail
into early next week, pulsing to locally strong N of Hispaniola 
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Sat. The high 
pressure ridge will shift south Sat night, ahead of a series of 
weak troughs moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through 
Sun. These troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the northern
waters Sat through Mon. 

$$

AL

..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 6, 2023..

 

Ensemble models are hinting a the possibility of tropical system could reach the Bahamas this during this month.  However, once again these are model forecasting in the near future and they are always subject to change.  I will continue to monitor closely.

There are 3 tropical waves in the Atlantic and 1 in the Caribbean that the southern axis of the wave is interacting with the monsoon trough in this area. This interaction is producing strong to severe storms off the Columbia west coast and over southern Caribbean waters and over the east Pacific waters. Latest satellite now showing storms spreading west over northeast Nicaragua and Honduras as well.

The other three waves have some showers and storms produced by the interaction with the ITCZ (inter-tropical convergence).  The one off the African coast has stronger storms being enhanced by the African monsoon trough in that area. 

RTW

014 
AXNT20 KNHC 060953
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved offshore Africa early this morning and
now resides in the far eastern Atlantic along 19N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N E of 20W. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W from 04N to
15N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
observed at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W from 04N to 16N
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed east of the wave from 05N to 11N between 44W and 52W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 78W from Colombia to
Jamaica moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted well ahead of this wave, in the NW Caribbean. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W 
to 12N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 07N46W. Scattered
moderate convection has developed along the monsoon trough from
06N to 10N between 25W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed near the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 41W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near the Louisiana coast is the
dominate feature, with a pair of surface troughs along the Florida
and Yucatan west coasts, respectively. Scattered, disorganized
convection has developed offshore Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas.
Away from these areas of convection, winds are light to gentle in
the eastern Gulf and mainly moderate SE in the western Gulf. Seas
in the eastern Gulf are 3 ft or less, with 3 to 6 ft in the west.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse 
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula tonight as a diurnal 
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high pressure 
will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the NW Caribbean is primarily associated with a
tropical wave described in the Tropical Waves section above. 
 A relatively tight gradient between subtropical high pressure 
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean, enhanced by a passing 
tropical wave, is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds 
in the majority of the basin. Seas of 9-11 ft are noted in the 
south- central Caribbean, with 6-9 ft seas in the remainder of the
central Caribbean. Winds are moderate in the far eastern and far 
NW Caribbean, and gentle throughout the Clark basin and Gulf of 
Darien in the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in these 
areas of lighter wind.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the central Caribbean 
will move west across the western Caribbean into Fri night. Fresh 
to strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical wave 
mainly across the central Caribbean. Another tropical wave will 
enter the eastern Caribbean Fri night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb low pressure near 28N59W disrupts overall high pressure
dominant over much of the basin, but the feature is no longer
producing any convection. Convection to the south in the tropical
Atlantic is associated with features described in the Tropical
Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections above. For waters N of 22N
and W of 35W, winds are mainly light to gentle, with seas of 3 to
5 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail to the S with seas of 4 to
6 ft. Similar conditions are observed E of 35W, except for areas
between the Canary and Cabo Verde islands, where fresh to locally
strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring. 

For the forecast west of 55W, weak Bermuda High will maintain a 
weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of the
area into tonight. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will prevail
into Sat, behind a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. 
Looking ahead, the high pressure ridge will shift south Sat night,
ahead of a series of weak troughs moving between northeast 
Florida and Bermuda through Sun. One of these troughs will produce
fresh SW winds across the northern waters for the start of next 
week. 

$$ 
KONARIK