..FRANKLIN UPDATE AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 22, 2023..

 

...SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 Location: 15.5°N 71.1°W Moving: NW at 7 mph Min pressure: 1002 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

ELSE WHERE NO WORRIES TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AT TIME.  HOWEVER, I WILL BE MONITORING IN THE COMING WEEK THE EAST PACIFIC AND THE WEST CARIBBEAN FOR FUTURE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS MODELS ARE HINTING DEVELOPMENT.

RTW

000

ABNT20 KNHC 221106
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located over the east-central Caribbean Sea, on 
Tropical Depression Gert, located a few hundred miles east-southeast 
of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Harold, 
located just offshore of south Texas.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
later this week or over the weekend while it moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern and central 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
The remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily are located over the 
central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east-northeast of 
the Leeward Islands.  Although development is unlikely in the next 
day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions, some 
development is possible late this week or this weekend when the 
system moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Harold are issued under WMO 
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Harold are issued 
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

..HAROLD MAKES LANDFALL ON PADRE ISLAND TEXAS AUG 22, 2022..

 

...HAROLD MAKES LANDFALL ON PADRE ISLAND TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

10:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 Location: 27.1°N 97.4°W Moving: WNW at 21 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

..FRANKLIN AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE AUG 21, 2023..

 

Tropical Storm Franklin is not looking as organized as it did overnight. Now the clouds have been warming as upper-level westerly wind shear is over the storm. However, forecast models suggest that upper-level shear will decrease during the next 24-48 hours, which could allow the storm to strengthen some on approach to the island. Franklin will pose a life-threatening flash flood and mud slide threat for Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Franklin seems to have slowed down some due to weak steering currents to the north of Franklin. Franklin is forecast to turn northwest, north, then north-east over the Atlantic by Thursday.  A slow-moving Franklin is not a good scenario for Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Latest satellite shows storms being shoved southward off the northern coast of Columbia. 

Stay tuned to the NHC for the latest updates on the tropics.

RTW

Ensemble model run.

Ensemble model run.

Guidance Models

Intensity Models

EURO ENSEMBLE HAS A WIDE SPREAD HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 

ON THIS 06Z MODEL RUN.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the Gulf of Mexico is continuing to track slowly westward toward the Texas coast. This system is moving through a small area of favorable wind shear. However, upper-level shear is forecast to increase along the Texas coast. PTC could become a tropical depression or tropical storm before making landfall along the Texas-Mexico border. Flooding will be the main problem with this storm.

RTW

WRN Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador