| ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... | |||||||
| 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 Location: 21.1°N 86.4°W Moving: SW at 2 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Max sustained: 35 mph | |||||||
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93L WILL LINGER NEAR THE YUCATAN AND WESTERN CUBA AS IT WAITS FOR A FRONT TO DROP IN AND PULL IT NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE ICON GERMAN MODEL WHICH DID WELL WITH IAN SAYS ANYWHERE BETWEEN TAMPA AND SARASOTA.
THE GFS IS DOING THE SAME THING IT DID WITH IAN LAST YEAR LEFT OF THE TRACK OF ALL THE OTHERS. SO THERE ARE UNCERTANTIES IN THE FORECAST BUT SO FAR ITS LOOKING LIKE BIG BEND TO SARASOTA.
THAT JUST ME SAYING THIS AND IT IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
RTW
ABNT20 KNHC 261158 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located near the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of next week while the system moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
For those who have been through many hurricane seasons, you know the drill. But for the new folks, here's some basic guidelines. We talk about a tropical threat in terms of timelines, not distance in miles away. We plan according to that timeline if we are in the threat area. At any point along the way, we can pause our preps, but we never want to play catch-up. For Fla west coast/panhandle we are getting our minds around starting preps Sunday. It's easier to physically prepare if we already accept we may need to prepare.
STORM INVESTIGATION 93L IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NOW HAS A MEDIUM 40% CHANCE FOR FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH 80% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 7 DAYS.
INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN, WESTERN CUBA, AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
As this system tracks north, it will enhance showers and storms over Florida Monday through Wednesday. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT RISK FROM SARASOTA NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IN THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. The rest of the state will have a marginal risk.
FYI PUERTO RICO IS GETTING SOME RAIN BANDS FROM FRANKLIN AS IT BECAME STATIONARY AND THE STORMS ARE BEING SHOVED SOUTH OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AS STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING IN ALONG THE WEST AND NORTH COAST OF THE ISLAND. HEAVY RAINS GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE. YOU CAN'T FLASH FLOODING IF THESE BANDS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
