Idalia will be blocked by high pressure as Franklin tracks east-northeast for a bit, causing the storm to meander in the Atlantic. EURO brings the low back to the Northwest off the Northeast coast. GFS takes Idalia near Bermuda, lingers for a day or so, then tracks east-northeast as Franklin tracks east.
RTW
I will be monitoring the Atlantic from September 6 through September 19, as the ensemble models show possible storm tracking west-northwest.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of
Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Idalia, located near the coast of North
Carolina, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Jose, located
several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
A weak but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred
miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has a short
window for further development during the next day or so while it
drifts northeastward or eastward before upper-level winds become
increasingly unfavorable by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Reinhart
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311050
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 31 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Idalia is centered near 33.6N 78.0W at 31/0900
UTC or 40 nm SSW of Wilmington North Carolina, moving ENE at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Idalia will
continue moving ENE this morning. The 12 ft seas still extend off
the coast of Florida, within 180 nm in the SW quadrant and 220 nm
in the SE quadrant. An E to SE motion is forecast to begin later
today and continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Idalia will just offshore of the coast of North Carolina
today. Idalia will then move over the western Atlantic into the
weekend. Little change in strength is expected today, but some
gradual weakening could occur Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane Franklin is centered near 34.9N 63.2W at 31/0900 UTC
or 170 nm NNE of Bermuda, moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85
kt with gusts to 105 kt. Franklin will generally move ENE to NE
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin should continue moving away from Bermuda. Gradual
weakening is forecast over the next few days. Rough seas associated
with the outer periphery of Franklin south of 31N will improve by
Fri morning.
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Jose is centered near 28.8N 52.2W
at 31/0900 UTC or 680 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 27N to 30N between 49W
and 53W. Seas range 8 to 9 ft. Jose will continue moving N with
an increase in forward speed for the next day or so. Little
change in strength is forecast over the next day or so, with the
small system forecast to be absorbed by Franklin by the weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest on
Franklin, Idalia and Jose. For NHC Forecasts/Advisories and
Public Advisories on these systems, see www.hurricanes.gov
Invest AL94 in the eastern Atlantic: An area of low pressure
located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and 7
days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
https://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 21W and 30W. This wave
is associated with AL94 discussed in the Special Features section.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm E of
the wave from 10N to 15N.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 18N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic Ocean from the
coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 13N33W to 09N48W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N48W to 10N54W. Outside of the convection
associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 21N between the coast of
Africa to 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
11N between 32W and 39W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
As Tropical Storm Idalia continues moving farther away from the
basin, winds are moderate to locally fresh over the eastern Gulf
with seas 5-6 ft. Over the central and western Gulf, gentle to
locally moderate winds prevail with slight seas. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted across most of the basin from 21N to 30N
and E of 95W.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia continues to pull farther
east away from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, high pressure
will continue to build over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
will persist through early next week with slight seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a tropical
wave in the central Caribbean.
An area of numerous strong thunderstorms is noted off the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras, from 16N to 22N between 83W
to 89W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean along the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N
between 75W and 84W. Strong winds still continue in the south-
central basin near the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trade winds
noted across the central Caribbean. Moderate seas are noted in
this area. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the NW Caribbean
outside of the strong thunderstorms noted earlier. Moderate to
fresh trade winds prevail in the eastern basin. Slight to moderate
seas are noted in the NW and eastern Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse in the
central Caribbean through Fri night with moderate seas. Meanwhile,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the western Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean. Trades will
weaken this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes and continue
through early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin, Tropical Storm Idalia, Tropical Storm Jose,
and Invest AL94.
Outside of the four systems, the remnants of Gert (AL94) is
producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 29N between
55W and 63W. Fresh winds are still likely around this system.
Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the sensible weather north of 20N
and east of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder
of the open waters, along with seas of 4-7 ft.
For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Idalia will move to
34.0N 75.1W this afternoon, 33.5N 71.7W Fri morning, 32.4N 69.1W
Fri afternoon, 31.5N 68.0W Sat morning, 31.2N 67.5W Sat afternoon,
and 31.4N 66.6W Sun morning. Idalia will change little in
intensity as it moves near 33.1N 63.8W by early Mon. Meanwhile,
moderate to fresh winds and rough seas associated with outer
southern periphery of Franklin will impact the northern waters
through tonight.
$$
AReinhart
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