THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE PREPARE FOR THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL VISIT WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3
FLOODING RAINS AND STORMS EXEPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO STORM PREICITION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTIN CENTER FOR THEIR LATEST UPDATES.
DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS)
One more day of warm humid temps before the front clears Florida overnight and cools us down Saturday and Sunday when the coldest temps arrive.
Today we also have a chance for showers and storms. Some could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds lightning and small hail (General Thunderstorms). The Storm Prediction Center does not anticipate severe storms today.
Saturdays temps will struggle to reach 70s and Sunday breezy/ and gusty making it feel colder than the actual temperature. Lower 50s to upper 40s early morning.
RTW
SPC AC 191245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024
.gif)
High pressure has shifted the winds from the Atlantic and these warm easterly winds will moderate the temps into the 70s and the 80s. The front that temporary gave us the rains and storms on Tuesday will now back up over Southern Florida as a warm front. This will also enhance the rain and storm chance over the southern Peninsula on Thursday.
Outlook calls for a General Thunderstorm chance. Although severe weather is not expected some storms could produce heavy downpours, strong gusty winds, lightning and small hail.
So far model suggest that Sundays morning temps could be the coldest this season. I will have to see what models say by Saturday. So far lowers 50s to upper 40s is what EURO and GFS are forecasting so far.
It will becoming breezy and gusty into next week after the passage of this front late Saturday evening.
RTW
The Storm Prediction Center has no severe storms forecast for the near future. Day 2, they show a general thunderstorm outlook, but they are not anticipating any of the storms that may develop to reach severe limits.
A cold front that brought showers yesterday made it off shore on the Southern Florida Peninsula over night. This front ushered in cooler temperatures this morning, and it will become cooler this evening and over night, with possible mid- to upper-50s by tomorrow morning.
Then a gradual warm-up occurs Friday as high pressure moves quickly into the Atlantic and shifts the winds out of the east as another colder front moves in from Saturday into Sunday, dropping the temps in the south between the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Northern Florida will be ranging between freezing 20s and 30s, and Central Florida will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. It will be breezy and gusty at times, making it feel much colder. By Tuesday, the temperatures will begin to moderate throughout the state.
RTW
DAY 2 THURSDAY SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
(GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS NOT SEVERE)
SPC AC 170624 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA AND GENERAL! ALWAYS VISIT STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST OUTLOOK MAPS.
RTW
.gif)
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL...
| MARGINAL | 25,935 | 9,343,760 | Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Clearwater, FL... |
.gif)
| 2 % | 20,174 | 6,576,598 | Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Lakeland, FL...Brandon, FL... |
.gif)
| 5 % | 25,935 | 9,340,743 | Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL... |
