..A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY APRIL 10, 2024..

 

A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO.  STAY TUNED TO YOU LOCAL NEWS MEDIA AND THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR UPDATES.

RTW

DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (MODERATE RISK)

MODERATE	31,044	2,002,910	Baton Rouge, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Opelousas, LA...Shenandoah, LA...
ENHANCED	53,731	5,168,247	New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
SLIGHT	46,817	4,326,427	Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Tuscaloosa, AL...
MARGINAL	168,103	18,772,028	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...

TORNADO OUTLOOK (SIGNIFICANT SEVERE)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	74,474	6,398,359	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
15 %	27,048	1,867,417	Baton Rouge, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Prichard, AL...Opelousas, LA...
10 %	51,530	4,653,573	New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...Gulfport, MS...
5 %	39,089	3,700,765	Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...Tuscaloosa, AL...
2 %	44,193	4,916,747	Nashville, TN...Columbus, GA...Huntsville, AL...Murfreesboro, TN...Decatur, AL...

DAMAGING WINDS OUTLOOK (SIGNIFICANT SEVERE)

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	55,014	5,075,846	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
45 %	31,074	2,013,653	Baton Rouge, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Shenandoah, LA...Laurel, MS...
30 %	53,612	5,153,438	New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
15 %	47,213	4,339,689	Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Tuscaloosa, AL...
5 %	167,783	18,745,695	Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...

DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	22,230	3,019,101	New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
5 %	172,517	11,083,119	Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

..ANOTHER ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER DAY..

 

TODAY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS.  STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST.

RTW

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK ENHANCED RISK

ENHANCED	69,689	9,012,790	Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Beaumont, TX...Killeen, TX...
SLIGHT	112,412	12,778,224	San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
MARGINAL	105,258	11,180,264	Cleveland, OH...Corpus Christi, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Akron, OH...Jackson, MS...

TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	23,761	1,010,492	Beaumont, TX...Huntsville, TX...Lufkin, TX...Nacogdoches, TX...Natchitoches, LA...
10 %	32,171	4,673,966	Houston, TX...Beaumont, TX...College Station, TX...The Woodlands, TX...Bryan, TX...
5 %	58,009	7,745,036	Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Pasadena, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
2 %	71,118	8,661,330	San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...

DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK 

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	21,756	4,320,443	Houston, TX...Beaumont, TX...College Station, TX...The Woodlands, TX...Bryan, TX...
30 %	34,846	5,084,690	Houston, TX...Beaumont, TX...College Station, TX...The Woodlands, TX...Bryan, TX...
15 %	76,527	9,765,880	San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Pasadena, TX...Waco, TX...
5 %	135,466	17,067,941	Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Cleveland, OH...Arlington, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...

DAMAGING HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	80,626	12,135,548	Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Waco, TX...
30 %	55,841	8,221,485	Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Tyler, TX...
15 %	125,970	13,646,053	San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 %	106,273	11,144,659	Cleveland, OH...Corpus Christi, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Akron, OH...Jackson, MS...

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKFOR TODAY APRIL 8, 2024..

 

There is an enhanced risk for severe storms today so stayed tuned to the Storms prediction center for the latest outlook updates.

RTW

Severe Storm Outlook

ENHANCED	30,452	5,512,724	Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Irving, TX...
SLIGHT	130,100	10,293,769	San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Garland, TX...Lubbock, TX...Shreveport, LA...
MARGINAL	188,385	15,385,932	Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Laredo, TX...Little Rock, AR...

Tornado Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

5 %	85,253	11,970,820	Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
2 %	127,531	11,647,489	Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...Abilene, TX...

Hail Outlook

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIG SEVERE	160,391	15,783,468	San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
30 %	30,177	5,461,726	Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Irving, TX...
15 %	130,208	10,333,005	San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Garland, TX...Lubbock, TX...Shreveport, LA...
5 %	188,158	15,342,296	Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Laredo, TX...Little Rock, AR...

Damaging Wind Outlook

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

15 %	114,357	13,032,017	Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
5 %	159,208	12,910,646	Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Lubbock, TX...Jackson, MS...Pasadena, TX...

..WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA..

 

LAST NIGHTTHERE WAS A MARGINAL RISK BUT TODAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.  BELOW IS THE 48 HR HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVTY MODEL.  STAY TUNED TO THE STROM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY..

 FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173-221000-

/O.NEW.KMFL.WI.Y.0003.240322T1600Z-240324T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach County-Metro Broward County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-
Including the cities of Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Lake Worth,
Palm Beach Gardens, Florida Gardens, Greenacres City,
Sandalfoot Cove, Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Coral Springs,
Sawgrass Mills Mal, Sunrise, Davie, Miramar, Hialeah, Kendall,
Carol City, Kendale Lakes, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Jupiter,
Riviera Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach,
and Miami
154 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Metro Palm Beach County, Metro Broward County,
Metropolitan Miami Dade, Coastal Palm Beach County, Coastal
Broward County and Coastal Miami Dade County.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

.. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE NATIOANL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI..

 

FLZ069>075-172>174-220130-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.240322T1200Z-240324T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward
County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-Metropolitan
Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami
Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Pompano Beach, Kendall, Hollywood,
Mahogany Hammock, Pa-Hay Okee Overlook, East Naples, Sunniland,
Shark Valley Obs Tower, Bonita Shores, Bunker Hill, Kendale
Lakes, Marco Island, Marco Island Airport, Deerfield Beach, North
Naples, Hialeah, Carol City, Florida City, Davie, Northwest Cape
Sable, Naples, Royal Palm Hammock, Coral Springs, Sunrise, Miami,
Orange Tree, North Blocks Golde, Fort Lauderdale, Golden Gate,
Sawgrass Mills Mal, Pembroke Pines, Miles City, Redland,
Immokalee, Miramar, Royal Palm Ranger, Miccosukee Indian
Reservation, and Fortymile Bend
126 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southwest Florida, including the
following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal Broward County,
Coastal Miami Dade County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland
Broward County, Inland Miami-Dade County, Metro Broward County and
Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southwest Florida, Coastal Collier
County, Inland Collier County and Mainland Monroe.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- 3 to 5 inches of widespread rainfall with locally higher
amounts possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING..

 

I continue to monitor the model run for this low that is supposed to strengthen a bit over the Gulf on approach to Florida. 

However, models seem to show that the intensity of these storms seems to break up over southern Florida, causing stronger cells to split apart.

This makes it difficult to tell what areas will be affected by the strong storm cells. The Storm Prediction Center still has a marginal risk for southern Florida late Friday Night and on Saturday morning, and some areas could still experience strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusty winds, lighting, hail, and heavy downpours that can produce localized flooding in those areas prone too street floods.  Also an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 

Below, you can read the Storm Prediction Center (Southeast) synopsis for this storm system.

RTW

...Southeast...
   Even with the aforementioned uncertainties, it does appear that an
   initially dry/potentially cool low-level environment, across much of
   the Florida peninsula through eastern Gulf Coast region, will tend
   to maintain generally stable conditions inland of coastal areas as
   initial convection supported by warm advection overspreads it. 
   However, based on various model output, including some
   convection-allowing guidance, there appears potential for at least
   one initially organized convective cluster to overspread the Florida
   Keys/southern Florida peninsula vicinity, coincident with a warm
   front off the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early Friday.  Given
   sufficient boundary-layer destabilization in the presence of strong
   deep-layer shear, this may be accompanied by a risk for damaging
   wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

   Thereafter, it appears that widespread convective development,
   perhaps including organizing clusters, may continue along trailing
   convective outflow gradually advancing across and east-southeast of
   the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through early Saturday.  Convective
   potential to the north of this outflow remains unclear.  However,
   models do indicate that substantive boundary-layer destabilization
   is possible across much of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by late
   Friday night, ahead of a weak southeastward advancing cold front. 
   Still ahead of the mid-level troughing axis, this environment may
   support additional scattered strong thunderstorm development which
   might spread inland across coastal areas before weakening.

Days 2-3 Friday/Saturday severe storm outlook (Marginal Risk)

Risk Areas:

MARGINAL

28,698

10,287,668

Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...

Day 2 Hail Outlook

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Risk Areas:

5 %

10,763

2,481,103

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...

Day 2 Tornado Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Risk Areas:

2 %

28,718

10,319,869

Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL..

Day 2 Damaging Winds Outlook

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. 

Risk Areas:

5 %

28,478

10,302,841

Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...

Day 3 Severe Storm Outlook (Marginal Risk)

Risk Areas:

MARGINAL

9,032

1,875,828

Miami Beach, FL...Kendall, FL...The Hammocks, FL...Kendale Lakes, FL...North Miami, FL...

Day 3 Saturdays Severe Storm Probability

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Risk Areas:

5 %

8,820

1,801,409

Miami Beach, FL...Kendall, FL...The Hammocks, FL...Kendale Lakes, FL...Coral Gables, FL...

GFS Average Precipitation Rate model 

HRRR Radar Reflectivity model

ECMWF (EURO) Average Precipitation Rate model

..THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY EVENING..

 

Well the Storm Prediction Center has posted a Marginal risk for severe storms over south Florida on Friday as models continue to suggest that stormy conditions are possible Friday evening and over night to Saturday morning.  

A Low pressure in the Gulf is forecast to to develop some and track over Florida bringing a possible risk for strong to severe storms over the Florida Peninsula.  

The Weather Prediction Center also posted a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for most of the state of Florida as this low is forecast to bring plenty of precipitation with it.