..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 20, 2024..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. 

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of 
the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only 
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of 
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression 
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and 
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast 
early on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
enroute to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern 
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this 
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical 
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Berg

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 19, 2024..

 

...ALBERTO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...

1:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 Location: 22.2°N 95.1°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 995 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

 

 

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 18, 2024..

 

1. An upper-level trough of low pressure east of the Bahamas has more thunderstorm activity associated with this weather system. 

This low is presently in a favorable to neutral upper-level environment; in other words, it is in a marginally favorable area for gradual development as it tracks west-to-northwest during the next few days. However, north of the Bahamas, it remains unfavorable at this time. 

Also, ahead of this low water vapor, the satellite shows dry air ahead of this low, which could hinder development as well.

NHC is giving this low a 10/20% chance for formation during the next 48 hours to 7 days. I will keep you posted.

RTW

Potential Tropical Cyclone One

2. As for PTC One, it is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday, according to the NHC. This system is forecast to bring excessive rains to northern Mexico and Texas by Thursday and Friday and produce flash floods in Texas and mudslides in mountainous areas of Mexico.

Gale winds will also be on the increase across the Gulf waters, with a 40–50 mph gust, according to the Windy Euro model along the Texas coast and the Northern Mexican coast.

RTW

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181757
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF 
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 92.6 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest 
and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and 
on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. 

The disturbance is quite large, and satellite-derived wind data 
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 
miles (665 km) north of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde 
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep
South Texas on Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 0349 PM JUNE 17, 2024..

 

1. The Bay of Campeche storm system, the Central American Gyre 91L, is producing heavy rains and storms over the north Yucatan peninsula, with the potential for deadly flash floods and mudslides. 

 

As this storm system crosses the BOC and heads toward north Mexico and southern Texas, gusty winds and heavy rain will spread over Texas and Mexico, with additional potential for flash flooding. 

 

NHC is giving this system an equal chance for development—70% within 48 hours and seven days. 

 

Gale winds will spread across the west as this system moves toward the coast. Most of the stronger wind gusts seem to be north of the center.

 

2. An upper-level low pressure and a decaying frontal boundary/surface trough east of the Bahamas are forecast to track west or northwest toward the southeast U.S. So far, models are not showing anything significant, but they will be monitored.

 

NHC is giving this system a 10/30% formation chance within 48 hours and seven days.

 

For a more complete update, check out the out the NHC tropical update below.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171742
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of 
low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of 
35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves 
slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. 

Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are 
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and 
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash 
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over 
portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week.  In 
addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of 
Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Interests 
along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the 
progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may 
be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or 
tonight.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred 
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and 
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions 
could be conducive for some development of this system during the 
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The 
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United 
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ 

Forecaster Beven

 

Excessive rainfall outlook Moderate Risk for Texas through Thursday

All the heavy moisture is over the Gulf in association with this storm system.

Upper level condition are not favorable in the Gulf.  

Small area east of the Bahamas is marginally favorable .

Increasing shear seen below in the Gulf at this present time.  Decreasing shear over the Atlantic.