..TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 2, 2024..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions could support some gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader 
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the 
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so 
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Beven

---------------------------------------------------------------

321 
ACCA62 KNHC 012330
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 PM EDT martes 1 de octubre de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes está emitiendo
advertencias sobre el Huracán Kirk, ubicado sobre el Océano
Atlántico tropical central.

Mar Caribe Noroeste y Golfo de México: Una amplia depresión de baja
presión está produciendo una gran área de aguaceros y tormentas
eléctricas desorganizadas desde el suroeste del Mar Caribe en el sur
del Golfo de México. Las condiciones ambientales podrían apoyar
algún desarrollo gradual de este sistema, y una depresión tropical
podría formarse hacia el final de la semana o durante el fin de
semana a medida que la perturbación más amplia se mueve
completamente en el Golfo de México. Intereses a lo largo de la
Costa del Golfo de Estados Unidos deben continuar monitoreando el
progreso de este sistema.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...40 por ciento.

Atlántico Tropical Este (AL91): Aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas
continúan en associación con un área de baja presión localizada unos
pocos cientos de millas al sur-suroeste de las Islas de Cabo Verde.
Las condiciones ambientales parecen propicias para un mayor
desarrollo de este sistema, y se espera que se forme una depresión
tropical durante el próximo día o dos mientras se mueve lentamente
hacia el oeste sobre el Atlántico tropical este.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...alta...90 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...90 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Bucci

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 1, 2024..

 

I am still monitoring the West Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for this sort of development. The ensemble has mixed signals and is still hinting that something will develop, whether it's a weak depression or just a disturbance. It looks like we will see a chance for heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Florida. So models suggest a stronger system, but once again, it's hard to tell at this time. So another system to watch and see what happens in the coming week. I will keep you posted.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of 
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. 
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, 
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next 
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Mora

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK SEPT. 27, 2024..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Helene, located inland over northeast Georgia and on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical 
Atlantic Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser 
Antilles continues to become better organized. This disturbance is 
already producing gale-force winds. Environmental conditions are 
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm 
could form today while the system moves generally westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to 
slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by 
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves 
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by 
the end of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development 
thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly/Rosado

..HURRICANE HELENE SEPT 26, 2024..

 

Helene gradually picks up steam as it tracks towards the Florida Panhandle. Please heed the advice of local authorities and emergency management and evacuate if told to do so! This is a deadly storm surge of 15-20 feet, and you don't have a chance to survive it. So if in a storm surge warning area, evacuate!

As for here in South Florida, you can expect at times wind gusts in squalls of 40–50 mph. I am not seeing much moisture to our south at this time, but you can't rule out an isolated rain band with strong gusty winds tracking over South Florida. In fact, the EURO wind gust model shows a 40-52 mph wind gust by this afternoon and early evening, gradually decreasing after 11 p.m. So beware and be safe! You can't rule out a fast-dropping isolated tornado within the isolated rain bands. 

We are still under a Tropical Storm Warning with winds from 39-56 mph and a Tornado Watch. 

RTW

EURO Wind Gust Model still showing strong tropical storm 

force wind gust for this afternoon and early evening.