...TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 1, 2021...THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2021 HURRICANE SEASON...

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

JUNE 1, 2021...1122 AM EDT

TODAY MARKS THE START OF THE 2021 HURRICANE SEASON WHICH RUNS JUNE 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.  HERE ARE THIS SEASON NAMES, AND PLEASE NOTE THAT SUB-TROPICAL STORM ANA WHICH WAS A SHORT LIVED STORM OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC MIDDLE OF MAY.

ANA, BILL, CLAUDETTE, DANNY, ELSA, FRED, GRACE, HENRI, IDA, JULIAN, KATE,

LARRY, MINDY, NICHOLAS, ODETTE, PETER, ROSE, SAM, TERESA, VICTOR, WANDA

 GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

THERE IS A STRONG LINE OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF TEXAS MAINLY DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT A A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE INTERACTION WITH THE TWO IS ENHANCING THE RAIN AND STORMS OVER THE REGION.  THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT MOVES OFF SHORE AND POSSIBLY SIT OVER THE WARM WESTERN GULF WATERS.

AS FOR FLORIDA A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE I MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS OUTLOOK SEEMS TO HAVE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.  YOU CAN SEE THE SPIN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS.  ALTHOUGH I AM MONITORING CLOSELY, THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF, FLORIDA EAST COAST IS RATHER DRY AND YOU CAN SEE THE DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR CLEARLY IN-TRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION.  SO DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR, BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NOT CAUSING MUCH TROUBLE.  ITS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME.

THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF AFRICA

THE NORTH ATLANTIC HAS A COLD FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS THOSE STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THERE WAS A WAVE EMBEDDED IN YESTERDAYS UPDATE BUT IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE MAP BECAUSE IT IS NO LONGER VISIBLE.

OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THERE IS A NEW WAVE THAT MOVED OFF OVER NIGHT.  THE SOUTHERN AXIS HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AN INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THAT REGION.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 31, 2021

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

MAY 31, 2021...0530 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

THE GULF REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.  FLORIDA EAST COAST AND BAHAMAS THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING EAST.  THIS IS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRESENT OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

THE NORTH ATLANTIC QUIET,  THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS TWO TROPICAL WAVES FIRST WAVE IS PARTIALLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE NORTHERN AXIS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  

THE OTHER WAVE IS IN THE BEHIND THE CARIBBEAN WAVE AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  

THE AFRICAN COAST HAS STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH.

RTW

REMEMBERING OUR FALLEN HEROES. WE WILL NEVER FORGET!

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 30, 2021

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

MAY 30, 2021...0454 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO

• THE GULF REMAINS QUIET WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  

CARIBBEAN SEA

• ALSO REMAINS QUIET WITH SOME ISOLATED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME MODERATE TO MAYBE STRONG STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

• NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IT SEEMS QUIET AT THIS TIME,  THERE IS A TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES, BUT IT IS VOID OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NORTH, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

• THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET WITH SOME BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

• THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REMAINS BUSY WITH TWO WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVES AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS.  NO SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION WITH EITHER OF THESE WAVES.  

• THE AFRICAN COAST AND WESTERN CONTINENT HAS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TRACKING WEST.

RTW

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 29, 2021

 

PLEASE FOLLOW MY BLOG IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE SO YET.  ITS TO THE RIGHT OF THIS TEXT.  THANKS FOR COMING TO RTW BLOG.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BY RTW

MAY 28, 2021 1226 PM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO

• THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS QUIET WITH A TWO SURFACE TROUGH. FIRST TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATER.  SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP SOMETIME TODAY ALONG THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH.

• SECOND TROUGH SOUTHERN AXIS IS PARTIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHEAST IN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS AND JUST OFF SHORE THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA.

• I WILL BE MONITOR A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT PROMPTED SEVERE STORMS OVER NIGHT AND TODAY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.  IF THAT ENERGY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LINGERS THERE, IT COULD BECOME SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.   

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET AT THIS TIME WITH SOME STRONG TO MODERATE STORMS IN THE USUAL AREA, THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER PANAMA.  THESE ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT FLOWS THROUGH THIS REGION.

THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE MONAS PASSAGE BETWEEN DOMINICAN AND PUERTO RICO.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS TROUGH AT THIS TIME. 

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND VOID OF ANY CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS).

NORTH, CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

 THE NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET FOR NOW.  AS FOR THE CENTRAL  ATLANTIC IT REMAINS RATHER BUSY WITH STRONG TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST OF AFRICAN COAST WHERE THE MONSOON FLOW MEETS UP WITH THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE).  THIS IS ALL ITCZ RELATED ACTIVITY WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ITCZ.  NEITHER WAVE IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 28, 2021

 

OTHER THAN TWO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THE TROPICS REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 27, 2020

 

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER-RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

MAY 27, 2020 1033 AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO

• THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CLEAR OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.  THE SOUTHERN GULF STILL HAS A SURFACE TROUGH BUT IT IS LACKING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS SHOWER AND STORM FREE FOR NOW.

EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS

• THIS REGION REMAINS STORM FREE AT THIS TIME.  

NORTH ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST LEEWARD AND PUERTO RICO REGION

• TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 65°-67° WEST AND ANOTHER NEAR 55° WEST.  SOME SHOWERS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE PRESENT WITH A BIT OF ROTATION DUE TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 65° WEST AND 30° NORTH.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

• THERE ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH TWO WAVES EMBEDDED WITH IN THESE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG 36-35° WEST AND SECOND WAVE ALONG 20-18° WEST.  NEITHER OF THESE WAVES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

ALL REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW!

RTW

NEW TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT

 

JUST AN INTRODUCTION TO A NEW WAVE OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT.  SEEING A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE  ZONE) AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  

NOTHING ORGANIZING YET BUT I THOUGHT I WOULD INTRODUCE YOU TO WAVE NUMBER 2.

RTW

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 26, 2021

 

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF MEXICO

• GULF REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.  GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SECOND WEEK OF JUNE AROUND THE 9TH, BUT THAT IS A LONG RANGE FORECAST, AND IT COULD CHANGE TO NO STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THEN.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS.  THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF, AND THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS TROUGH. 
  

CARIBBEAN SEA

• THE NORTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET FOR NOW.  AS FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA REGION, THERE ARE STRONG TO MODERATE STORMS THAT ALSO EXTEND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC.  THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA, AND A MONSOON TROUGH OVER THIS REGION.  THIS AREA IS USUALLY VERY ACTIVE DURING THIS TIME AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME. 
  

EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS

• THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION.

NORTH ATLANTIC

• NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET AS WELL.  THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.  NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

• THERE IS PLENTY OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER, NON OF THESE STORM CELLS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  AS FOR THE AFRICAN COAST, AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THERE ARE STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20° WEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 

RTW

NEED 4 MORE VIEWERS HELP

PLEASE I NEED 4 MORE VIEWERS TO STEP UP WITH A $16.00 DONATION TO MY PAYPAL NON-PROFIT ACCOUNT SO I CAN CONTINUE PAYING FOR THE EXTENDED SATELLITE VIEW YOU SEE ON THE TRACKING SOFTWARE I USE.  I PUT IN FOR THE MONTH OF MAY AND TWO OTHERS FOR JUNE AND JULY.  WITH 4 MORE DONATIONS WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH NOVEMBER.

IF YOU REMEMBER LAST YEAR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MENTIONED THAT THEY WOULD HAVE TO CUT BACK ON BANDWIDTH USE FOR SATELLITE AND RADAR. THE TRACKING PROGRAM I AM USING WON'T HAVE THESE BANDWIDTH ISSUES AND WE WON'T HAVE OLD IMAGERY, IT WILL REMAIN CURRENT.

HERE IS LINK TO THAT WRITE FROM LAST YEAR.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../nws-data-limits.../

YOUR HELP WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 25, 2021

 

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN, GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA.

SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN

ONLY AREA WITH STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIAN COAST.  THESE ARE MONSOON TROUGH INTERACTION WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ (INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE) IN THAT AREA.

AFRICAN COAST

THE OTHER AREA OF STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AFRICAN CONTINENT AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS IS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 15° WEST.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 24, 2021

 

THE TROPICS HAS BECOME QUIET AS ANA DISSIPATED.  SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

GULF OF MEXICO

THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN.  THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA

THE NORTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW.  THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORM OVER PANAMA AND THOSE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

NORTH/CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST

THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS STORM FREE AS ANA DISSIPATED AND ALL THEIR IS LEFT IS A LINGERING TROUGH FROM A DECAYING COLD FRONT.

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE SOUTHWESTERN AFRICAN COAST HAS SOME STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THOSE ARE DOES TO A MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS REGION.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 23, 2021

 

TROPICS ONLY HAS ONE SYSTEM THAT SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING.  THERE ARE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH OUT THE TROPICS BUT NONE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

• REMNANTS OF INVEST 91L IS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER TEXAS AND AT TIMES THEY ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRAINING NORTHWESTWARD OVER TEXAS FROM THE GULF.

• STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA REGION DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO AN INTERACTION WITH WITH A MONSOONAL TROUGH IN THIS AREA.

• SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF WEAKENING SUB-TROP STORM ANA. 

• THERE ARE SOME STRONG TO MODERATE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST VENEZUELA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. 

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERSION ZONE (ITCZ).

• EAST COAST OF AFRICAN HAS SOME MODERATE SHOWERS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A MONSOON TROUGH. 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

RTW