Good morning. I hope your having an awesome start to the work week. I am still monitoring the southern and western Caribbean for development in the coming week. I am also monitoring Storm Investigation 94L, which has a medium 50% chance for formation within seven days.
A strong cold front is forecast to drop southeast over Florida, and a high pressure will then build in behind the front. This strong high will extend out over Bermuda, and the Azores high will then build west and merge with the U.S. high. The outer ridge of the high will induce a westerly flow and force Invest 94L westward.
Then the frontal boundary that moves offshore Florida will stall out and back up over the Florida Straits. This will prevent 94L from proceeding further west past the Bahamas, and the combination of the high and the front will cause 94L to slow and become nearly stationary or find a weakness in the high pressure and turns northeast into the weakness. Note forecast are subject to change in the coming days so I will continue monitoring.
This high will also prevent the Caribbean storm system from tracking very far north. So far, this is what I see with the models at this time. Enjoy the first fall cool front.
RTW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Hagen
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
887 ACCA62 KNHC 141139 TWOSAT Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL 800 AM EDT lunes 14 de octubre de 2024 Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México: Atlántico Tropical Central (AL94): Un área bien definida de baja presión localizada varios cientos de millas al oeste de las Islas de Cabo Verde está produciendo algunos aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas. Este sistema está actualmente incrustado en un ambiente seco, y es poco probable que se desarrolle durante los próximos dos días. Sin embargo, se pronostica que este sistema se moverá generalmente hacia el oeste hacia aguas más cálidas, y las condiciones ambientales podrían volverse más favorables para el desarrollo gradual para la mitad a última parte de esta semana. Una depresión tropical podría formarse a medida que el sistema comienza a moverse hacia el oeste-noroeste y se acerca o se mueve cerca de las Islas de Sotavento a fines de esta semana. * Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento. * Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...50 por ciento. $$ Pronosticador Hagen *** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre la versión autorizada. ***
.png)
.gif)
.gif)
.gif)
