...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave with strong signature has been added to the
surface analysis over western Africa from 02N to 20N along 11W.
A squall line precedes the wave by about 90 nm, and a cluster of
strong convection has moved off the African coast to within
75 nm of 09N16W. The longitude of wave axis will likely be adjusted
as it passes sites of radiosonde launches over the next few
days.
A tropical wave is analyzed along 31.5W from 02N to 18N, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 14N within 210 nm either side
of the wave axis.
A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean from 09N to
20N along 63W and is moving west about 18 kt, but should soon
begin to slow it's forward progression as it continues southwest
of the a surface high near 30N52W. Isolated showers and tstms
are observed within 210 nm of the wave.
A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and
is currently analyzed along 74W and extends north across the
Mona Passage and south across northern Colombia. Isolated
showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave across northwest
Venezuela and northeast Colombia, with a few showers and tstms
also noted along the wave at 17N.
Another tropical wave is along 87.5W and will pass across the
Yucatan Peninsula and portions of central America late today.
Only isolated showers currently accompany the wave. This wave
will likely lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low
pressure over the East Pacific along 95W where conditions are
expected to become favorable for tropical cyclone formation late
this week. Numerous strong convection is currently observed
across the far southwest Caribbean between two tropical waves.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
19W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to
this wave is noted from 07N to 10N between 19W and 21W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 03N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 50W and 55W.
The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along
63W from eastern Venezuela northward to the Leeward Islands,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave's axis.
The axis of a tropical wave extends from eastern Cuba to eastern
Panama. This wave, is interacting with an upper level trough
extending across the SE Bahamas to the central Caribbean, and will
enhance convection over Cuba today.
Another tropical wave is near 89W, and extends over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala into the eastern north Pacific region.
This wave in conjunction with an upper level low spinning over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to support convection
over SE Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
16W from 04N-18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to
this wave is noted from 06N-10N between 14W and 20W.
The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N40W to 03N41W.
Isolated moderate convection is noted at the base of this wave.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 04N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N
between 54W and 59W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from the coast of
western Venezuela to eastern Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 knots.
This wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough, is helping
for active convection over the northeastern Caribbean east of the
wave axis. This convective activity is affecting Puerto Rico and
parts of Hispaniola.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W extending from the eastern
north Pacific across western Panama to western Cuba. The wave is
helping for enhanced convection over the NW Caribbean west of 78W,
and the western half of Cuba. Clusters of moderate to strong
convection are seen where the wave meets the monsoon trough.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is emerging off the west coast of Africa and will
likely be added to the 1800 UTC surface map. The Hovmoller Diagram
indicates the westward propagation of the wave. A large cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 6N-10N
between 11W-15W in association with this system.
The axis of a tropical wave extends from 16N32W to 04N34W. African
dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A patch of low level
moisture is near the northern end of the wave's axis.
A tropical wave is along 50W from 6N-18N, moving W at 20 kt. A
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the
southern end of the wave's axis from 06N-08N between 50W and 52W.
This wave will pass west of 55W early on Sat, and move across the
Windward Islands by Sat night.
The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N65W to the coast of
Venezuela near 10N66W, moving W at 10-15 knots. The wave is
generating scattered moderate convection across the basin, mainly
E of 67W, including the Lesser Antilles, where showers and
locally heavy rain have been reported. Upper diffluent ahead of an
upper-level trough that now crosses Hispaniola is helping to
induce this convective activity. Moisture related to this wave
will spread out over Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands
today, reaching Dominican Republic tonight into Sat, increasing
the likelihood of showers with embedded tstms. A recent scatterometer
pass clearly indicates the wind shift associated with the wave's
axis.
A tropical wave extends from the westernmost tip of Jamaica to
eastern Panama near 09N79W. Lingering moisture from this tropical
wave will continue to support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across Jamaica and regional waters today. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are observed between Haiti and
Jamaica while some shower activity is near the wave's axis from
15N-18N. Abundant tropical moisture will persist over the NW
Caribbean and central America through at least early Sat.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
As of 1200 UTC, there are four tropical waves between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-12N, moving W at 20 kt. The
Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave,
that coincides with a modest surge of moistened air based on the
TPW product. Abundant cloudiness surrounds the wave's axis but
convection is limited.
A tropical wave is along 34W from 3N-11N, moving W at 20 kt. This
wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW
animation. Scattered showers are noted where the wave meets the
ITCZ.
A tropical wave is along 43W from 3N-11N, moving W at about 15
knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product, and
model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is
noted on either side of the wave's axis from 6N-8N between 40W-
46W.
Another tropical wave is along 60W from 6N-17N, moving W at about
10 knots. The wave coincides with a high amplitude northward bulge
of moisture, and is also well depicted in model diagnostics
guidance. Scattered moderate convection is already affecting
Trinidad and Tobago as well as Barbados, where showers and some
tstms have been reported. Moisture associated with this feature
will continue to affect the Windward Islands today. The wave will
then move across the eastern Caribbean this afternoon through Fri
night. The associated moisture is forecast by the GFS computer
model to spread out reaching the Leeward Islands later today and
tonight, and Puerto Rico on Fri, then Dominican Republic Fri night
into Sat.
A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is
along 73W, and extends from Hispaniola to northern Colombia.
The wave is interacting with an upper-level trough that crosses
eastern Cuba. Lingering moisture from this tropical wave will
continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Hispaniola today. Moisture and instability related to this
wave will also affect the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba,
as well as Jamaica today. Currently, scattered showers and tstms
are noted in the Windward Passage, across the waters between
eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and E of Jamaica. This wave is forecast
to move across Jamaica tonight, entering the western Caribbean
Fri.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
There are three tropical waves between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave is along 26W from 3N-11N, moving W 15-20 knots.
Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the
ITCZ.
A second tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 3N-11N, moving W
about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is also noted where
the wave meets the ITCZ.
A third tropical wave is along 55W from 5N-14N, moving W about 10
knots. A cluster of moderate convection is within about 90 nm on
the west side of the wave's axis from 10N-12N
A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 67W/68W, and extends from the Mona Passage to the coast
of Venezuela. A cluster of moderate convection is over the Mona
Passage.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate
that a deep layer low pressure system has consolidated W of
Corpus Christi Texas near 28N98W. Although this system is
producing a widespread area of cloudiness and disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, interaction with land and proximity to dry air
in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over W Texas and NE Mexico
should prevent a tropical cyclone from forming. However, this
disturbance is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
during the next few days. As much as 7 to 10 inches of additional
rainfall is possible over south Texas along the Texas Coastal Bend
during the next 1 to 2 days. Strong SE to S winds can be expected
over the western Gulf N of 25N between 92W and 96W, primarily in
bands of deep convection through this evening. Winds and seas are
expected to subside Tonight and Wed as this system gradually
weakens. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for
heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlc has an axis extending from
02N19W to 11N21W, moving W from Africa around 20 kt in a low
vertical shear environment. Composite TPW satellite imagery shows
this system is embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 03N to 06N between
18W and 21W.
A tropical wave over the central Atlc has an axis extending from
02N33W to 11N34W, moving W around 15 kt in a moderate shear
environment due to an upper-level trough over the Atlc near 40W.
Dry Saharan air and dust are limiting convection on the W side of
this wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found from 03N to 06N between 27W and 36W.
A tropical wave over the west-central Atlc has an axis extending
from 05N54W to 14N51W, moving W around 10 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery
shows dry air and dust surrounding the N side of the wave.
Convergent upper- level winds are also inhibiting deep convection.
Consequently, only spotty cloudiness and isolated showers are
observed within 90 nm of the wave axis.
A tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean has an axis
extending from 09N66W to 19N63W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This
wave is within a very moist environment and upper level diffluent
flow, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
over the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands from 12N to 19N
between 61W and 65W.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate
that a surface trough associated with a low- and mid-level low
pressure system has moved inland over the Texas coastal plain.
Although this system is producing a widespread area of cloudiness
and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, interaction with land
and proximity to dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere
should prevent a tropical cyclone forming. However, this
disturbance is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
during the next few days. As much as 7 to 10 inches of rainfall is
possible along the Texas Coastal bend during the next 1 to 2
days. For more details on this disturbance and the threat for
heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local weather
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis extends from 05N22W to 14N22W, moving W from
Africa around 20 kt in a low vertical shear environment. Composite
TPW satellite imagery shows this system is embedded in deep layer
moisture. Despite the favorable environment, only moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 22W and 25W.
A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 04N35W to
12N34W, moving W around 15 kt in a high shear environment due to
an upper-level trough over the Atlc near 40W. It is being
affected by dry air and dust, and no deep convection is associated
with this wave.
A tropical wave axis in the west-central Atlc extends from
05N52W to 14N49W, moving W around 10 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery
shows dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which
along with strong wind shear is inhibiting deep convection.
A tropical wave axis entering the eastern Caribbean extends from
05N65W to 16N64W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is within a
very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, supporting
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Leeward
Islands from 13N to 17N between 61W and 65W.
A tropical wave axis over the western Caribbean extends from
10N80W to 20N80W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt in a strong wind shear
environment. GOES-16 middle and lower level water vapor imagery
show very dry air in the region. These two factors are hindering
the development of deep convection at the time.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa last night. It axis
extends from 05N19W to 13N18W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in
a low or favorable deep layer wind shear environment. However,
the GOES-16 Dust RGB and Split window imagery show the wave is
being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern
wave environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.
Isolated showers are from 05N-13N between 13W-22W.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
03N31W to 12N29W, moving W at 20 kt. Similar to the wave in the E
Atlc, this wave is in a low or favorable deep layer wind shear
environment. However, is being affected by dry air and dust,
especially in the northern wave environment. No deep convection is
associated with the wave at the time.
A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N48W to 14N45W, moving W at 15-20 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery show
dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along
with strong deep layer wind shear inhibit deep convection at the
time. Shallow moisture and middle to upper level diffluence
support isolated showers from 07N-12N between 45W-50W.
A tropical wave is within 120 nm SE of the Windward Islands with
axis extending from 06N60W to 14N58W, moving W at 15 kt. This
wave is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper
level diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 07N to 16N between 57W and 63W.
A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 09N76W to 19N74W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong
or unfavorable deep layer wind shear environment and GOES-16
middle and lower level water vapor imagery show very dry air in
the central Caribbean. These two factor are hindering the
development of deep convection at the time.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler Radar data indicate that a
surface trough associated with an upper-level low pressure system
has moved onto the coast of Texas. This system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to
continue during the next few days. For more details on this
disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall, please see products
issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Roberts
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 02N28W
to 12N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a low or favorable
deep layer wind shear envioronment. However, the GOES-16 Dust RGB
and Split window imagery show the wave is being affected by dry
air and dust, especially in the northern half of the wave
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.
A tropical wave is over the central Atlc with axis extending from
04N47W to 13N44W, moving W at 10 kt. Similar to the wave in the E
Atlc, this wave is being affected by the presence of dry air and
dust in its environment along with strong deep layer wind shear.
Therefore, no deep convection is associated with this wave at this
time.
A tropical wave is within 225 nm SE of the Windward Islands with
axis extending from 06N58W to 14N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave
is within a very moist environment and under middle to upper level
diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered moderate convection
from 10N to 14N between 55W and 60W.
A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W,
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is
associated with this wave.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181136
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low pressure system
interacting with a surface trough located near the Texas coast.
Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
over Texas later today and tonight. However, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas
are likely to continue during the next few days. For more
details on this disturbance and the threat for heavy rainfall,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave axis extends from 02N24W to 12N23W. This system
is moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product as
well as in model diagnostic guidance. Associated convection has
greatly diminished during the past several hours with only
scattered showers leftover.
A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 02N43W to 12N40W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A modest surge of
moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are
associated with this wave.
A tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic has an axis
extending from the coast of Suriname near 04N56W to 14N53W,
moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with a high amplitude
bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 53W
and 56W.
A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W,
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is
associated with this wave.
A tropical wave moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the
Tropical NE Pacific extends northward through the Chivela Pass
into the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W and is moving W around 15 kt.
TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep
layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with an upper-level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring S of 20N E of the wave axis to 93W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave axis extends from 04N21W to 13N20W. This system
is moving W around 10 kt well defined in the TPW product and in
model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate convection is
present within 120 nm of the wave axis between 04N and 09N.
A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
03N41W to 13N39W, moving W around 10 kt. A modest surge of
moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are
associated with this wave.
A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 05N54W to 14N52W, moving W around 20 kt. The wave coincides
with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW
product. Currently, scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 52W and 54W.
A tropical wave moving westward over the eastern Caribbean has an axis
extending from 12N70W to 19N68W, moving W around 15 kt. African
dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only shallow moisture and
virtually no convection is associated with this wave.
A tropical wave moving across the border of Guatemala and Mexico
has an axis extending from 12N92W to 19N92W and is moving W
around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N to 20N
between 90W and 95W.
