TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 5, 2018... 1100 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N
southward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 08N between 45W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 20N southward.
The tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola, NW Venezuela and NE
Colombia. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

A tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 22N southward. The tropical
wave is moving through the eastern sections of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW Caribbean
Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward. 

Storm Investigations

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051147
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak trough of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda remain
disorganized.  Environmental conditions are still conducive for
some development before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time.  This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

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NHC is monitoring two areas for tropical cyclone formation.  The one

with the highest chance is over the Central Atlantic tracking westward.

Some models suggest that this system will weaken and dissipate as it

tracks into the Eastern Caribbean.  Conditions are not all that favorable

ahead of this system but it bares watching...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com 

H-Model Combo Run

 UKMET Model Combo Run

 CMC Model Combo Run

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 4, 2018

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 15N 
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 
10N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong 
rainshowers cover the area that extends from 12N southward between
28W and 40W. This wave was formed by energy that was left over 
after the current 40W tropical wave continued its westward 
movement. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 15N southward.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 19N
southward, cutting across Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers, are from Hispaniola southward to South America 
between 63W and 74W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 23N 
in Cuba southward. Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 
700 mb, from 20N southward between 80W and Central America. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers cover the area that extends from 10N northward
between 77W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan Peninsula. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States.  The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Shower activity has changed little in organization near a small
area of low pressure and tropical wave located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  In addition, recent
satellite-derived wind data and visible satellite images suggest
that the system may not have a closed surface wind circulation.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com 

The Central Atlantic system has a Low chance for

development at this time.  Environment ahead of

this wave is not favorable for tropcial cyclone

formation...RTW

 18Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN

18Z H-MODEL RUN

18Z CMC MODEL RUN

 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN

 Atlantic Color and Visible Satellite

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY AMERICA!

 God Bless and Protect this Nation and the World!  

Have a Safe 4th of July...RTW

TROPICALWEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 3, 2018... 0405 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 30W and
40W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. The low level cloud field 
associated with this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to
15N between 50W and 60W, and from 08N to 13N between 60W and 64W
in parts of the SE Caribbean Sea and Venezuela and Trinidad and
Tobago. The moisture that is associated with this wave will a 
modest increase in the chances for rainshowers for the eastern
Caribbean Sea islands during the next day or so.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from 22N in Cuba
southward, across Jamaica. The wave is moving westward 20 knots.
Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 700 mb, from 20N
southward between 80W and Central America. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers cover the area from 11N to 14N between 80W and
85W, in the Caribbean Sea and in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea
from 18N southward between 74W and 84W. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

------------------------------------------------------------------

National Hurricane Center 

CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031731
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda.  Upper-level winds could become somewhat
conducive for development by late this week when the disturbance is
forecast to be southwest of Bermuda.  The system is forecast to move
generally northward over the weekened and begin interacting with a
frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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1. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ORLEANS THAT 

CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS AS IT TRACKS 

SLOWLY WESTWARD.

2. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE GRAND 

BAHAMAS IS ALSO PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE 

FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS 

SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW JULY 4TH.

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 3, 2018... 1104 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N33W to 04N34W and 
is moving W around 10 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of 
moisture as noted in the TPW product, but African dust surrounds 
the northern side of the wave and is inhibiting convection there. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within the moister southern 
portion of the wave from 01N to 08N between 30W and 36W.

A tropical wave extends from 19N52W to 05N53W. This feature is 
moving W around 10 kt. The low level cloud field associated with 
this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature. This wave shows up 
well in the TPW animation where a pronounced bulge of moisture is 
observed. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan dust which is 
limiting convection in the vicinity of this wave. Only a small 
cluster of moderate convection is noted E of the wave axis from 
09N to 11N between 49W and 51W. Moisture associated with this wave
will begin reaching the Windward Islands early this afternoon and
bring a modest increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms 
for this area during the next day or so.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the eastern Cuba near 
21N76W to the coast of Colombia 08N77W, moving westward at around 
20 knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product. The 
monsoon trough extends E over the SW Caribbean from Costa Rica to 
northern Colombia near 10N74W. The tropical wave is interacting 
with the trough to generate numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection from 11N to 13N between 81W and 84W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 120 nm 
of a line from 08N75W to 14N83W. Model guidance indicates that the
abundant moisture associated with this wave will spread W from 
the SW Caribbean over Nicaragua and Honduras this afternoon and 
tonight.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

------------------------------------------------------------------

A mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas continues tracking

west and could begin to affect the Florida Peninsula this evening

and on the 4th of July enhancing the rain and storm chance tomorrow.

A low south of Mississippi is also tracking slowly westward.  This

low is producing heavy rains and storms over the lower half of

Louisiana. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2018... 0400 PM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 17N29W to 05N29W and 
is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Satellite imagery depicts a total 
precipitable water surge in conjunction with this wave. Saharan
dust is embedded in the northern portion of the wave. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 26W and 32W. 

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N50W to 05N51W. This
wave is moving W around 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with an 
inverted-V signature in total precipitable water data and visible 
satellite imagery. At this time, the wave is surrounded by 
Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the deep convection
in the vicinity of this wave, except for isolated moderate
convection within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 12N.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has an axis extending 
from 19N70W to 05N70W, moving westward at 25 to 30 knots. This 
wave displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in 
total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, and 
from 11N to 15N between 70W and 75W, while Saharan dust 
surrounding the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting 
convection over the north-central Caribbean. 

A tropical wave extends from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico near
20N95W to SE Mexico, to the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the wave 
axis over the Gulf of Mexico and SE Mexico. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

---------------------------------------------------------------------

NHC is monitoring a low pressure south of the Modbile Alabama and the Florida 

Panhandle for tropical development as it produces

showers and storms over the region.  Low is forecast to track westward

and spread heavy rains over the Southeast states...RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2018... 1100 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N28W to 05N29W and 
is moving W at around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 31W and 36W. 
Satellite imagery depicts a total precipitable water surge in 
conjunction with this wave.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N49W to 03N50W. This
wave is moving W around 25 kt. This wave is well defined in model
700 and 850 mb fields and coincides with an inverted-V signature 
in total precipitable water data. At this time, the wave is 
surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the 
deep convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for an area 
of scattered moderate convection near the southern tip of the wave
from 04N to 06N between 47W and 52W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending 
from 19N67W to 04N68W, moving westward around 30 knots. This wave 
displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total
precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, while
Saharan dust surrounding the northern portion of the wave is 
inhibiting convection over the Caribbean. 

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec near 18N94W to over the EPAC waters near 10N95W. Total
precipitable water satellite imagery shows the north side of this
wave has only limited moisture to work with. Accordingly, 
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection associated with 
this wave lies primarily over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 14N to 
17N between 93W and 96W. This wave will continue moving W across 
southern Mexico today and support the formation of showers and 
thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico to the W of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

----------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now... RTW

 ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 30 2018...0151 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is
along 15W from 03N-14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted on
either side of the wave's axis from 05N-10.5N E of 18W to the
coast of Africa. The Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation
of the wave, that also coincides with a moisture surge in the TPW
product.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N27W to just W of 
the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N26W moving W around 10 kt. This 
wave is well defined in model diagnostics guidance and TPW 
animation. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the 
southern end of the wave from 03N to 06N between 22W and 26W. The 
the wave is nearly surrounded by dry Saharan air.

A tropical wave has an axis extending N from 05N51W to 18N50W and
is moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is present where the wave meets the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 
45W and 53W. Similar convection is noted near 10N50W. The wave 
shows up well in model diagnostics guidance and TPW product.
African dust surrounds the wave, that also shows an inverted V
pattern on visible satellite imagery. A patch of moisture with
embedded showers is noted ahead of the wave approaching the
Windward Islands. Tropical moisture associated with this feature
will reach the waters E of the Windward Islands late today, and 
move across the islands tonight into Sun, increasing the 
likelihood of showers and isolated tstms. 

A tropical wave has an axis extending N from NW Venezuela to the 
eastern Dominican Republic near 19N70W. This system is moving W 
between 10 and 15 kt and despite its longitude has dry Saharan 
dust on both sides. As a result, there is no significant convection
currently associated with this wave. Some moisture on the SE side
of this wave could enhance convection over the basin this weekend
before the wave reaches Central America by Sun night.

Another tropical wave has an axis extending over Guatemala and El
Salvador into the eastern Pacific region. This wave is slowing 
down and moving W at only around 5 kt. TPW satellite imagery and 
model diagnostics show this wave to be poorly defined. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Sahara Dry air and Dust and cool sea surface temperatures are

are suppressing tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 29, 2018... 1024 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from 02N-16N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model diagnostics. 
Convection is limited near the wave's axis. S

A tropical wave extends from 19N41W to 03N44W, moving westward 10
to 15 knots. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the
wave's axis. This wave will move into the tropical North Atlantic 
waters on Sat, and reach the eastern Caribbean early Sun. 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and 
extends from the Virgin Islands to central Venezuela. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 12N-16N between 64W-68W. This 
will move across the Caribbean basin through Sat night.

Another tropical wave extends across the NW Caribbean and Central
America into the EPAC region. Its axis is along 86W. Scattered 
moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough in
the EPAC.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Atlantic continues to be unseasonably colder than normal and

if this persist they may need to adjust the forecast to below normal.

RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 28, 2018... 1126 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in Africa, still, along 13W/14W from 17N 
southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds from 03N to 18N between 10W and 20W.
isolated moderate rainshowers from 05N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/36W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 12N between 80W and 84W in SE
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between the coast of Colombia and 80W near
Panama. 

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico, along 95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern 
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
southward between 90W and Mexico.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now!

ralphstropicalweather.com

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2018... 0321 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis from 01N to 20N along 27W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N-10N 
between 25W-32W. While no surface observations were in the 
vicinity of the wave, visible satellite imagery suggests that 
either a distinct surface trough or broad low is present. A
distinct maximum in total precipitable water (TPW) exists along
and east of the wave's axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to 
southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward
across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 01N to 19N, and 
is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant 
convection is related to this wave at this time. The wave also has
negligible surface signature, though it is well-present in the 
700 mb model diagnostics and TPW.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and 
South America along 78W from 02N to 19N, and is moving west about
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists
south of 13N within 300 nm west of the wave's axis. The wave has 
negligible surface signature and cannot be easily identified in 
TPW, though it is present in the 700 mb model diagnostics

A tropical wave is progressing west through Central America and 
is currently analyzed with axis along 90W and extends south from 
22N into the east Pacific near 09N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring east of the wave axis over
portions of Central America. The wave does have some surface
circulation as well as being apparent in the TPW imagery. This 
tropical wave has the potential to develop into an east Pacific 
tropical cyclone later this week.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

A Strong surge of moisture Meso type thunderstorm, more than likely

associated with a new tropical wave, is emerging off the coast of

Africa. This system is pushing more African Dust westward over the

Atlantic... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2018... 1101 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak, non-tropical low pressure system located offshore of the
the southeastern coast of North Carolina continues to produce a
small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development while
this system moves northeastward away from the United States during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is another strong wave about to emerge off the African coast that is

kicking up Sahara Dust westward over the Atlantic waters.

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time..RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com