STORM INVESTIGATION 97E OCT 5, 2018

The Caribbean needs to monitor Storm Invest 97E which models hint that this low will cross over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  That would be after Invest 91L or Michael tracks north across northeast Gulf coast.  This system could follow a similar path.  However,  its Still to early to tell, but Euro model shows this system in the Northwest Caribbean...RTW

WEATHER UPDATE INVEST 91L OCT 5, 2018...0339 PM EDT

STORM INVESTIGATION 91L
Disturbance in the Caribbean probabilities are now Medium chance 40% within 48 hours and a High chance 70% within 5 days.

Latest satellite shows less organization than earlier, lack of colder cloud tops. This is mainly due to the proximity to land and a West-Southwest wind shear over the disturbance.

As this disturbance begins to track away from the land area and moves over northwest Caribbean waters some organization could begin.  As it moves over the southern Gulf waters the sea surface temps are warmer and wind shear will be less.

Depending on the track and evolution of this system, will determine how much of the weather associated with this system will affect the Florida Keys.

Interest in the Yucatan, Western Cuba, Florida Keys, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of Storm Invest 91L over the weekend and coming week...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 5, 2018... 1111 AM EDT

Leslie still stuck in a blocked environment.  Leslie swells will now be reaching as far as the Eastern seaboard. 

Caribbean disturbance gradually becoming better organized and could become a depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week.

Model tracks flip flopping,  now a track northward.  These tracks will continue doing this so they remain questionable.

High pressure in the Atlantic over a portion of Florida helps to slowly steer this system around the peripheral of he high pressure ridge.  Leslie in the Atlantic sandwiched between high pressure is not allowing Bermuda high to move much Eastward so this keeps a buffer over a portion of Florida. 

However, on a track like models suggest at this time, the cyclone would make landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.  That seems to have been the tracks for Gulf storms this season. 

I say anyone who lives from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 4, 2018...1239 PM EDT

Leslie a tad weaker and continues producing rough surf for the Bermuda Island.

Caribbean disturbance drifting northwestward. 

Models continue trending to the west of previous model run, an indication that high pressure over southeast will block a northward track or a northeast track for now. 

As high pressure moves east toward the Atlantic then this a tropical storm or hurricane will begin to turn north and eventually northeastward around the peripheral of the high pressure ridge. 

This is as I see it right now.  I caution you though!  This is not an official forecast just my observation.

Always monitor National Hurricane Center forecast...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 0404 PM EDT

Leslie tracking over the north Central Atlantic.  Bermuda is feeling swells from the tropical Cyclone.

Broad are of low pressure located in the South Caribbean is still being monitored for tropical cyclone formation.

Last three model run has been trending to a weaker system and more toward the west-northwest.  There were a few that took it north. It's hard to tell if these run are valid because we don't have an actual center of circulation so these model run are all questionable for now.

I do believe if any of these model run to the west were to be valid, it could be due to high pressure in the Atlantic building west over Florida.  If that were the case, then we could see a Mexico or even Texas landfall.  However, like I said before these model run are questionable for now...RTW

HOW MUCH RAIN WILL TRACK NORTH FROM CARIBBEAN?

As the disturbance in the Caribbean begins to drift north- northwestward, it will also drag some of the precipitation associated with it.

This means moisture will spread northward over the Cayman islands, Jamaica, Cuba, the Florida straits and South Florida.

How much rain will all depend on the evolution and track of this tropical disturbance.

Below are the 48 hour and day 7 over all rainfall forecast...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 1019 AM EDT

Leslie now a hurricane over the North Central Atlantic.  Leslie continues to be only a threat to shipping, but it is producing swells along the Bermuda coast.

Still monitoring a disturbance in the South Caribbean associated with a broad area of low pressure.

This disorganized area of showers a storms is spreading west and east and could affect as far as Haiti and Puerto Rico as it drifts slowly northward toward the Northwest Caribbean.

As this system drifts north- northwest, it could become better organized and a depression or tropical storm could form during the weekend.

At this time models continue to show some development but are not as aggressive as past model run, where some showed a hurricane in the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf.

High pressure in the Atlantic should keep this system moving toward the Northwest or North-Northwest.

Interest in Cuba, the Yucatan, South Florida, New Orleans to the Florida Pan Handle, should closely monitor the progress of this system...RTW