Sunday, October 7, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0209 AM EDT
PTC Fourteen
Fourteen continues to show signs of organization and a depression or tropical storm could form at anytime...RTW
Saturday, October 6, 2018
WEATHER UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0504 PM EDT
Tropical disturbance Invest 91L slowly becoming better organized. NHC has now upgraded this system to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.
Watch and warnings issued for a portion the Yucatan and Western Cuba.
Interest in Key West, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of this developing system...RTW
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0210 PM EDT
- LESLIE TRACK EASTWARD ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING.
- STORM INVEST 91L STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, 80% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 90% WITHIN 5-DAYS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN, WESTERN CUBA, FLORIDA KEYS, LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
- STORM INVEST 97E IN THE EAST PACIFIC SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND COULD HEAD INTO THE GULF AS WELL. ITS NOW MOVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SO THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE NOW 0%. I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT INTO NEXT WEEK.
LESLIE
INVEST 91L
INVEST 97E
Friday, October 5, 2018
STORM INVESTIGATION 97E OCT 5, 2018
The Caribbean needs to monitor Storm Invest 97E which models hint that this low will cross over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean. That would be after Invest 91L or Michael tracks north across northeast Gulf coast. This system could follow a similar path. However, its Still to early to tell, but Euro model shows this system in the Northwest Caribbean...RTW
WEATHER UPDATE INVEST 91L OCT 5, 2018...0339 PM EDT
STORM INVESTIGATION 91L
Disturbance in the Caribbean probabilities are now Medium chance 40% within 48 hours and a High chance 70% within 5 days.
Latest satellite shows less organization than earlier, lack of colder cloud tops. This is mainly due to the proximity to land and a West-Southwest wind shear over the disturbance.
As this disturbance begins to track away from the land area and moves over northwest Caribbean waters some organization could begin. As it moves over the southern Gulf waters the sea surface temps are warmer and wind shear will be less.
Depending on the track and evolution of this system, will determine how much of the weather associated with this system will affect the Florida Keys.
Interest in the Yucatan, Western Cuba, Florida Keys, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of Storm Invest 91L over the weekend and coming week...RTW
TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 5, 2018... 1111 AM EDT
Leslie still stuck in a blocked environment. Leslie swells will now be reaching as far as the Eastern seaboard.
Caribbean disturbance gradually becoming better organized and could become a depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week.
Model tracks flip flopping, now a track northward. These tracks will continue doing this so they remain questionable.
High pressure in the Atlantic over a portion of Florida helps to slowly steer this system around the peripheral of he high pressure ridge. Leslie in the Atlantic sandwiched between high pressure is not allowing Bermuda high to move much Eastward so this keeps a buffer over a portion of Florida.
However, on a track like models suggest at this time, the cyclone would make landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. That seems to have been the tracks for Gulf storms this season.
I say anyone who lives from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance...RTW
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