Monday, June 3, 2019
INVEST 91L UPDATE JUNE 3, 2019 0915 AM EDT
Invest 91L is finally beginning to track northwestward. Now that this system is no longer stationary it will begin to move into warmer waters and some organization may or may not begin. That will more that likely be short lived if the system moves inland and hugs the coast. However, as of the past few model run from Sunday to this morning they have been trending more off shore than they were on Saturday and Friday. If this indeed occurs then the low will have a better chance for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of organization or not this will be a rain producer so some flooding rains can be expected as it tracks up the coast.
Both the 06z and 12z intensity models trend toward a tropical storm at most. Those who live from the Mexico Texas border to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system.
RTW
Sunday, June 2, 2019
STORM INVESTIGATION 91L UPDATE JUNE 2, 2019 0757 PM EDT
STORM INVEST 91L UPDATE:
The disturbance in the Southern Gulf (Bay of Campeche) has not become any better organized. the low has become stationary and proximity to the Mexican coast is cutting off moisture to this system.
The low is forecast to begin a track toward the northwest in the coming days and moving inland over Mexico. Some of the models are still suggesting a re-curve toward the northeast along the western Gulf coast.
This system could become a depression or tropical storm before it makes landfall over Mexico. I will continue to monitor it into this coming week.
RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 2, 2019 0246 PM EDT
TROPICAL WAVES:
#1 A westward moving tropical wave between 16°/17° West is interacting with the Inter-tropical conversion zone (ITCZ) along the southern axis of the wave. there are no signs of organization at this time.
#2 A westward tropical wave between 28°/29° West is also interacting with the ITCZ along the souther axis of the wave. there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
#3 A westward moving tropical wave between 48°/49° West is lacking convection (thunderstorms) to the south of the wave. No interaction with ITCZ. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation.
#4 Invest 91L is gradually becoming better organized as it drifts slowly westward. At this time Highs to the north is blocking a northward track but that could change int the days to come as a trough will move into the area and could help to turn this low. If not then inland over Mexico. West Gulf coast and northern Gulf just monitor for now.
Intensity model still suggest a tropical storm and others a depression.
Note above map is the morning surface observations highs and lows in different location. Click here for latest 12z surface map.
RTW
00Z SPAGHETTI MODELS ARE OUT JUNE 2, 2019 1215 AM EDT
Models still showing a Mexican landfall but more have curved northwest in response to a trough that will be moving into the central U.S. in the coming days. GFS also still showing inland Mexico and the moisture left by this weak system being pulled north and east by the trough. CMC also a bit further inland as well. Continue monitoring during the coming days.
RTW
Saturday, June 1, 2019
INVEST 91L 0800 PM EDT UPDATE JUNE 1, 2019
STORM INVESTIGATION UPDATE:
Invest 91L gradually showing signs of organization, however proximity to land and slow moving is not allowing this system to develop quicker which is a good thing. Upper level winds over the northern and central Gulf are not favorable for development at this time.
Models like the GFS and other models take 91L into western Mexico and while some other models like the CMC, EURO, and the HWRF model insist on a ride along the Mexico/ Texas coast and into Louisiana as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm. All this is speculations at this time because we know that the further out the forecast is the less accurate it is. Also we know these storms don't follow a straight path and could end up anywhere from inland Mexico to Louisiana. All we can do now is monitor and be ready to act if indeed this system sets it sites on your area.
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
769 ABNT20 KNHC 012334 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 1, 2019 0337 PM EDT
TROPICAL WAVES:
#1 A new westward moving tropical wave near 23°/24° West is lacking thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of development at this time.
#2 A westward moving tropical wave near 42°/43° West has thunderstorm activity south of the waves axis. This thunderstorm activity is mainly associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). There are no signs of development at this time.
I have an area in the Atlantic that some model suggest short lived development. It is questionable but I thought I just mention it.
RTW
#1 A new westward moving tropical wave near 23°/24° West is lacking thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of development at this time.
#2 A westward moving tropical wave near 42°/43° West has thunderstorm activity south of the waves axis. This thunderstorm activity is mainly associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). There are no signs of development at this time.
I have an area in the Atlantic that some model suggest short lived development. It is questionable but I thought I just mention it.
RTW
National Hurricane Center
000 AXNT20 KNHC 011756 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ASCAT data indicate that the 1008 mb low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N93W has become a little better defined today. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Bay of Campeche south of 23.5N. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 14N southward. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-07N between 38W-47W. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 23W from 12N southward. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough, from the global computer models. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends along 04N between 25W- 40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-38W. Additionally, scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 08N-10N between 51W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered ridging continues over the Gulf of Mexico, except for the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, where a 1008 mb surface low is producing scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. See section above for details. Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the NE Gulf, north of 28.5N and east of 87W. This activity is occurring to the south of an E-W stationary front that is located inland along Florida's border with Georgia and Alabama. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist across the northern Gulf through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-upper level ridging covers the western Caribbean, whereas mid-upper level troughing covers the eastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers prevail east of a line from the Virgin Islands to the ABC Islands, including the Leeward Islands. Rainfall at Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Table, was 2.43 inches during the 24 hour period ending at 01/1200 UTC. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is seen in the far SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 76W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the coast of Belize and Yucatan from 17N-20N, west of 86W. The remainder of the central and western Caribbean is free of significant showers. A ridge along 28N will maintain moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through the weekend. The active weather over and east of Belize and Yucatan is associated with a surface low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Enhanced showers and tstorms are possible west of 86W through tonight before the low pulls the moisture west of the Caribbean basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N78W and extends SW into southern Georgia near 31N81W. A squall line with thunderstorms is accelerating out ahead of the front oriented from 32N72W to 30.5N73W to 30.5N77W as of 1600 UTC. These thunderstorms could contain gusty winds through this afternoon north of 29N between 69W-77W. Aside from this moderately strong convection, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are north of 28N between 69W and the northeast coast of Florida. An upper level trough axis extends from 31N55W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms continue over the area that is enclosed by the points 14N60W to 19N64W to 30N50W to 23N43W to 14N60W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the eastern and central Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N40W. A ridge along 29N will shift east-southeast this weekend as a weak cold front moves off the southeastern U.S. and becomes stationary. High pressure will build southward over the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected elsewhere over the forecast area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen
INVEST 91L HAS A 40% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 5-DAYS JUNE 1, 2019
00Z Models are out and Canadian takes Invest 91L as a possible tropical storm along the Mexico Texas coast and into Louisiana. The EURO takes it inland over southern Mexico then back over the Southern Gulf waters and back toward the west Mexican coast weakening as it tracks north toward the Mexico Texas Border and toward the Louisiana coast. This is still not accurate and not set in stone so we will continue to watch the progress of this weather system in the days to come. RTW
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers is centered near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend and near the east coast of Mexico early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible as long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2019 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Andrea AN-dree-uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor Dorian DOR-ee-an Olga OAL-guh Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien suh-BASH-chuhn Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee Karen KAIR-ren One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that forms this season will be Barry. This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml. Forecaster Beven
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 1, 2019 1211 AM EDT
Tropical Wave:
#1 A westward moving tropical wave in the central Atlantic near 40°/30° West continues to track across the Atlantic. This wave seems to be interacting with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and strong thunderstorms have developed south of the waves axis. Conditions are not favorable for development in this area of the Atlantic at this time.
Storm Investigation:
#2 A low of the Yucatan west is about to emerge off the Yucatan west coast. This area is now Storm Investigation 91L and is being monitored for development as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Next update on this system will be released by NHC around 2 AM EDT June 1, 2019.
Spaghetti models are out for this invest and most show a track toward Mexican coast. Please note that these are not the most reliable models at this time.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time.
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