TROPICAL UPDATE

TROPICAL UPDATE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151248
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida 
continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds 
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and 
the northwestern Bahamas.  Gradual development of this system is 
expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm 
on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. Later 
in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move 
generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday.  Tropical-storm-force 
wind gusts are also possible across portions of the Florida Keys, 
southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or so.  
In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along 
the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are 
in effect.  Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are possible 
along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and 
early next week.  See products from your local weather office and 
High Seas Forecasts for more details. The Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system today 
has been canceled, but an aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

GUIDANCE MODELS

OLD GUIDANCE

GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS

LIVE MIAMI RADAR

EVENING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EVENING UPDATE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system 
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday 
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The 
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the 
western Atlantic early next week. 

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to 
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind 
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and 
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions 
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas 
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local 
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

TROPICAL OUTLOOK AFTERNOON UPDATE

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTERNOON UPDATE

LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS.  RADAR SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AN INDICATION AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING.

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM TO FORM AT ANYTIME.

THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME IS ROUGH SEAS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OFF AND ONSHORE.

AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IT DRAW HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS KEY AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEEKEND.   THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING.  STAY TUNED TO WEATHER UPDATES FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ADVISORIES.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system 
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday 
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The 
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the 
western Atlantic early next week. 

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to 
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind 
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and 
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions 
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas 
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local 
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK MORNING UPDATE

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE FLORIDA STRIATS PROMPTING MARIN WARNING THIS MORNING.  THESE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE URBAN STREET FLOODING.

STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEING PRODUCED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND TO DEVELOPING LOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREE LIMBS HANGING OVER POWER LINES COULD OCCUR.

ALSO USE CAUTION WHEN WALKING UNDER LARGE TREE AND ROYAL PALM TREES.  BRANCHES COULD BREAK OFF AND FALL ON TOP OF YOU OR CARS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK

224 
ABNT20 KNHC 141228
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the Straits of 
Florida is forecast to spread northeastward during the next day or 
two. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for  
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or 
subtropical depression or storm this weekend when it is located near 
or north of the northwestern Bahamas. The system is forecast to 
move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next 
week. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to 
bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of 
southeastern Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas over 
the next couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook 
on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 00Z EURO MODEL

 06Z GFS AMERICAN MODEL

 00Z CMC CANADIAN MODEL

 06Z NAVGEM NAVY MODEL

TROPICAL UPDATE

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a couple of 
days near or just north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend.  The 
system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western 
Atlantic through early next week. The next Special Tropical Weather 
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Thursday, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

STORM INVESTIGATION UPDATE

STORM INVESTIGATION UPDATE
MAY 13, 2020

NOTHING SHOWING YET BUT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS.

THIS STORM INVEST NOW HAS A 70% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 5-DAYS PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA, BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS IS ONLY A FORECAST AND ITS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

IT WILL BEGIN TO GET WINDY/GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING DURING THIS EVENING AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THIS FUTURE LOW PRESSURE.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A THREAT TO LAND AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN RAIN AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD MONITOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE ADVISORIES FOR GALE WARNINGS OR SMALL CRAFT WARNINGS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL 
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020

Corrected to remove double labels

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the 
Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this 
week or early this weekend near or within a couple of hundred miles 
north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or 
storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward 
over the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook 
on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 

 DAY 1 RAINFALL OUTLOOK

 DAY 2 RAINFALL OUTLOOK 

(YOU CAN SEE DARKER GREENS AND BLUES MOVING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA)

 DAY 3 RAINFALL OUTLOOK 

(MORE BLUES OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA, HEAVIEST ARE DARKER REDS AND ORANGE OVER EAST BAHAMAS)

 00Z EURO MODEL

 00Z CMC CANADIAN MODEL

 06Z GFS AMERICAN MODEL

 06 ICON MODEL

 O6Z NAVGEM NAVY MODEL

GFS AND CMC 12Z MODEL ANIMATION

HERE ARE TWO MODELS THAT SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.  THE GFS IS THE MOST LIKELY TRACK AND THE REASON FOR NO EURO MODEL IS BECAUSE IT SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

RTW

SPOKE TO SOON TROPICAL DISTURANCE NEAR BAHAMAS

SPECIAL TROPICAL UPDATE:

NHC IS WATCHING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  SYSTEM WILL EITHER TRACK NORTH OR NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK TEXT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend 
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some 
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through 
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system 
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Latto

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 MAP COURTESY OF RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER (RTW)

COURTESY OF TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM 

RTW BEGINS TRACKING TROPICS MAY 15, 2020

Just a heads up to my old and new viewers. I will begin tracking the tropical waves across the Atlantic starting this Friday May 15, 2020 the beginning of the 2020 East Pacific Hurricane Season.
During this time waves coming off the coast of Africa make their way into the East Pacific basin and spawn low pressure systems that eventually become tropical systems for that region.

Reason why I start tracking the Atlantic in May instead of June 1st is, because we have seen in the past few years some of these waves spawning tropical cyclones early in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. This way we are a step ahead of any potential development that you might need to know about.

I will be activating my Blog on this date and posting all my updates there and posting a link on this timeline for you to go to Blog and get the latest updates.

Thank you for visiting and your continued friendship. God Bless you all!
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

 LAST YEARS MAP FOR THOSE WHO ARE NEW VISITORS CAN SEE WHAT I POST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY COURTESY OF TROPICAL TIDBITS.COM