...TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 7, 2022...1107 PM EDT...

 

The tropics remain quiet for now!

National Hurricane Center 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 072201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35WW from 01N to 13N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09N between 34W and 38W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 01N to 14N, moving 
westward at 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from  06N to 16N between 50W and 60W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W from 13N southward, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. No significant deep 
convection is noted over water. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau. 
The ITCZ extends from 04N11W to 06N33W. It continues from 06N38W
to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N
between 15W and 32W, and from 04N to 09N between 38W and 50W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle
winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the NW Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through 
the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds 
will pulse over the western half of the basin on Wed, then light 
to gentle winds will prevail. Fresh winds will pulse over the Bay
of Campeche each night through Fri. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and a tropical wave moving
across the central Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the
central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will maintain a modest 
pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most 
of the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming 
weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the south- 
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at 
night through Sat. Fresh winds will pulse each night through the 
end of the week across the Gulf of Honduras. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A high pressure ridge extends from high pressure near 33N30W,
southwestward across the southern Bahamas. A pair of surface
troughs are over the area. One extending from 30N76W to central
Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted east of the trough. A second trough extends from 31N52W SW
to near 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
vicinity of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted
north of 29N within 90 nm east of the second trough. Elsewhere
mainly light to gentle winds prevail north of 20N and west of
55W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 8-11 ft range north of 28N between 50W and 65W. Seas in
the 5-7 ft range generally prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure extends westward into the central 
Bahamas. A surface trough along about 25N will linger and drift S
across the E waters through Thu. High pressure will strengthen 
across the region by Sat to produce fresh S to SW winds to the 
north of 27N and west of 70W. 

$$
AL