RTW
Tropical Outlook Discussion Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081810
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 08 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale-force winds are forecast for the eastern part of the
METEO-FRANCE forecast area AGADIR,
until 09 June/0900 UTC. Please, refer to the following website,
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.062
1.0806215013146.html, for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are within 540 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, and within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong, are within 500 nm to the east of
the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical
wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N to 21N
between 53W and 63W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. A Caribbean Sea
tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 13N southward in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving westward 10 knots. The
monsoon trough runs from Colombia near 10N74W to 11N77W, through
southern Nicaragua, beyond El Salvador, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from
16N southward from 76W westward.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the coastal plains of Guinea near
11N13W. The ITCZ is along 10N17W 05N27W 05N33W 03N47W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 37W eastward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the
south of the ITCZ from 46W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A separate upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from the NW corner of the area
toward the southeast, with a trough. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong, are from 27N southward from 91W eastward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds are from 25N northward between 90W
and 96W, moving southeastward.
The southernmost part of a NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico
surface trough reaches the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong
is in the waters from 20N southward between 93W and 95W.
Moderate E-SE winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to
3 feet, are in the south central and in the southeastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds, and wave heights that range
from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the northeastern and north central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to SSE winds, and wave heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the west central and
northwestern Gulf.
High pressure will dominate the basin through the week, and into
the upcoming weekend, producing generally return flow west of
90W through Fri. Moderate winds, within 120 nm of the Yucatan
Peninsula, will pulse to fresh each night through Fri.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from
31N69W, to 27N76W, to the SE Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic
circulation center. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are to the northwest of the line, from 31N61W to
Hispaniola near 20N70W, and from 18N northward from Hispaniola
westward in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. A Caribbean Sea
tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 13N southward in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving westward 10 knots. The
monsoon trough runs from Colombia near 10N74W to 11N77W, through
southern Nicaragua, beyond El Salvador, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from
16N southward from 76W westward.
A narrow ridge, from the western Atlantic Ocean to the central
Bahamas, is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds in much of
the area, except for fresh to strong winds in the south central
section, and in the Gulf of Honduras. The wave heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, except for the range from 7 feet to 8
feet in the south central part of the Caribbean Sea, to the
north of Venezuela and Colombia.
A weak Atlantic Ocean ridge to the west of 55W will maintain a
modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to
strong winds are expected across the south central Caribbean
Sea, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through
Fri night. Fresh winds will pulse each night through the end of
the week across the interior Gulf of Honduras. Atlantic Ocean
high pressure will strengthen north of the area during the
upcoming weekend to produce fresh to strong trades across much
of the basin.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough passes through 31N69W 27N76W, to the SE
Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation center.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the
northwest of the line, from 31N61W to Hispaniola near 20N70W,
and from 18N northward from Hispaniola westward in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate southerly winds, and
wave heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are
from 62W westward from the Bahamas northward.
A dissipating stationary front is along 31N48W 26N58W 28N68W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 20N northward between 40W and 70W. Gentle to moderate
winds, and northerly swell that is maintaining wave heights that
range from 8 feet to 11 feet, are from 27N northward between 47W
and 57W.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N25W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 275 nm of the upper level cyclonic circulation center in
the southeastern semicircle.
A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N24W, to 31N35W 26N45W 22N60W, through the Bahamas, to
the Straits of Florida. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward, except in the area
of the dissipating stationary front.
Moderate to fresh NE trade winds, and wave heights that range
from 7 feet to 9 feet, are from 26N southward between NW Africa
and 40W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trade
winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are
from 8N northward between 40W and 60W.
Atlc Ocean high pressure extends weakly westward into the
central Bahamas. A frontal trough along about 25N will meander
across the E waters through Thu. High pressure will strengthen
across the region over the upcoming weekend to produce fresh S
to SW winds to the north of 28N and west of 70W.
$$
mt/era
June 15-22 Possible Development in the Southern Caribbean
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