...STILL MONITORING THE STORM INVEST OVER HONDURAS...ALL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OVER MEXICO...

 

STORM INVEST OVER NORTHWEST HONDURAS.  I AM SEEING A STRONG CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A TRACK OVER MEXICO AND NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.  COULD BE ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN THE COMING DAYS.

ELSEWHERE THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET FOR NOW.

RTW

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 171128
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move across Central America during the next couple of 
days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low 
pressure could form on Friday.  Some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves northwestward over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven